Jamus: nazarin halin da ake ciki bayan mako guda da hawan AfD.

Takaitaccen nazari kan Jamus kwanaki goma bayan tsunami na AfD a zaɓen yankin Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate da Saxony-Anhalt.

Don ganin sakamakon waɗancan zaɓen, ya isa a ga juyin halitta wanda bincike ya nuna a tsakanin ma'auni kafin wannan rana da waɗanda suka biyo baya, la'akari da cewa lokutan ba daidai ba ne (watanni, mako biyu ko mako) don haka tasirin tasirin. na zabukan za su kasance da kura-kurai.

Haɗa bayanai daga manyan barometers (Infrast dimap, Emnid, Forsa, FgW, GMS da INSA), watsi da Allensbach saboda rashin buga wani barometer tare da aikin filin bayan Maris 13, ana samun waɗannan bayanan:

• AfD: yana girma a duk binciken, daga maki 1 zuwa 3.
• CDU/CSU: yanayin koma baya. A cikin barometers 4 yana sauke maki 1 ko 2. A 2 barometers ya kasance barga.
• FDP: ingantawa kaɗan. Da alama masu sassaucin ra'ayi suna tsira daga wannan ruwa mai cike da tashin hankali. A cikin binciken 2 sun ragu da maki 1 amma a cikin sauran 4 sun haura da maki 0,5 zuwa maki 2 GMS.
• Grüne: yana girma a duk binciken, abin da masunta ke samu shine kogi mai tsinke. Suna tashi daga maki 1 zuwa 3.
• SPD: babban digo, sun rasa maki 1 zuwa 3. Insa ne kawai ke kiyaye su. Da alama sun fi shafa.
• Linke: koma baya zuwa jam'iyyar da ake ganin tana waje kuma ba ta mayar da martani. Za ku rasa maki 0,5 zuwa 2. Emnid ne kawai yake kiyaye su.

Don ƙididdige juyin halitta, an nuna matsakaita na binciken 6:

• AfD: +1,7%
• CDU/CSU: -1%
• FDP: +0,4%
• Girma: +1,8%
• SPD: -1,7%
• Haɗin kai: -1,1%

A cikin watan Satumba za a yi sabbin nade-naden zabe biyu na yankin. A Berlin ana sa ran jam'iyyar AfD za ta kai kashi 10% na kuri'un da aka kada, amma babbar gwamnatin hadin gwiwa a kasar ba ta cikin hadari. Kuma a Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania AfD na iya bin hanyar Saxony-Anhalt, wata ƙasa ta gabas, kuma cikin sauƙi ta sami kashi 20% na ƙuri'un. Ita ma babbar gwamnatin hadin gwiwa ba ta cikin hadari.

Halin da ake ciki a Jamus shine ya tashi daga manyan jam'iyyu 2 (CDU/CSU da SPD) da 2 matsakaitan jam'iyyu (Grüne da Linke) zuwa 2 manya ( iri ɗaya), 2 matsakaita (AfD da Grüne) da 2 kanana (XNUMX) FDP da Linke) da kuma abin mamaki, a dukkan matakai uku za a yi jam'iyyar hagu da na dama, a cikin nau'ukan su daban-daban. Nakasar ita ce, muddin ba a la'akari da jam'iyyun AfD da Linke "lafiya" jam'iyyun da za su yarda da su ba, yiwuwar haɗin gwiwar gwamnati ya ragu sosai ... kusan komai zai ƙare a cikin babban haɗin gwiwa.

Labari daga CDDMT.