Jamus: Hukuncin CDU na Merkel da haɓakar dama.

An tabbatar da mafi munin alamu ga Merkel. An hukunta jam'iyyarsa ta CDU a zabukan yankuna (kasa 3) da aka gudanar a yau.

Kuma babban wanda ya lashe da'a ba kowa ba ne illa jam'iyyar AfD mai kishin kasa, wacce ke shiga da karfi a cikin majalissar dokokin guda uku, tare da kaso mafi girma fiye da wadanda aka yi hasashe a zaben. Har zuwa cewa a Saxony-Anhalt ya zama karfi na biyu, ba wai kawai SPD ba har ma da Linke a cikin fiefdom.

Lokacin da ƙidayar ta fara ci gaba sosai, yanayin shine:

Baden-Württemberg:

Girma: 47 esc (+11)
CDU: 42 esc (-18)
AfD: 23 esc (+23)
SPD: 19 esc (-16)
PDF: 12 esc (+5)
Hanyar haɗi: 0 esc (=)

An zabi karin kujeru 5 fiye da na 2011. AfD, wacce ke tsakanin kashi 11% zuwa 12% a rumfunan zabe, kodayaushe a bayan jam'iyyar SPD, ta kai kashi 15%, ta kuma zarce ta Social Democrats.

Tashin masu sassaucin ra'ayi daga kujeru 7 zuwa 12 zai ba su damar zama mabudin sabuwar gwamnati. Yarjejeniyar na iya zama: Grüne-SPD-FDP ko CUD-SPD-FDP.

A duk mazabun ko dai Grüne ko CDU sun yi nasara, sai dai a 2 inda AfD ke yi (Mannheim I da Pforzheim).

Rhineland-Palatinate:

An watse dai dai tsakanin CDU da SPD a shekara ta 2011. Amma a cikin wannan hali abin da ya fito fili shi ne rugujewar Grüne da sake bayyanar da karfi na AfD. Duk binciken ya sanya su a 9% kuma sun kai 12,5%.

SPD: 40 esc (-3)
CDU: 34 esc (-6)
AfD: 14 esc (+14)
PDF: 7 esc (+7)
Girma: 6 esc (-12)
Hanyar haɗi: 0 esc (=)

Jam’iyyar FDP ta koma majalisar dokokin jihar ne bayan da aka yi watsi da ita a shekarar 2011. Ana yin la’akari da zabin gwamnati guda biyu a nan: SPD-CDU ko SPD-FDP-Grüne, amma na karshen ba shi da sauki saboda takaddamar FDP da Grüne.

Saxony-Anhalt:

Wannan jihar gabas shine inda Linke ke son samun kyakkyawan sakamakonsa. Kuma a nan ne AfD ya samu mafi kyawun sakamakonsa, wanda ke nuni da abin da ka iya faruwa a gabacin kasar. Yayin da a yammacin kasar ci gaban AfD ya samo asali ne sakamakon faduwar jam'iyyar CDU, a gabashin kasar kuma ya samo asali ne sakamakon faduwar Linke da koma bayan sauran jam'iyyun hagu.

CDU: 36 esc (-5)
AfD: 29 esc (+29)
Hada: 19 esc (-10)
SPD: 13 esc (-13)
Girma: 6 esc (-3)

Ci gaban FDP bai taimaka mata shiga majalisar ba, tunda za a bar ta a bakin kofa da kashi 4,8% (ana bukatar kashi 5%).

Babban zaɓi na gwamnati shine kiyaye babban haɗin gwiwar CDU-SPD wanda ya haɗa Grüne.

Daga gobe za mu yi taka-tsan-tsan da illolin da wannan ranar zabe za ta haifar. Da alama za a yi hasashen cewa za a sami shugabannin CDU da za su yi wa Merkel tambayoyi a karon farko kuma tabbas za ta koma ga dama a cikin manufofinta na dakatar da ci gaba mai karfi na AfD.

Rubutun CDDMT.