Faransa 28/4: Duk da mummunar rana, Macron ya ci gaba da kasancewa cikin kwanciyar hankali

A 'yan kwanakin da suka gabata, da zaran an gudanar da zagayen farko na zaben Faransa, an bayyana zaben farko na zagaye na biyu, wanda za a gudanar a ranar 7 ga watan Mayu. Dukkansu sun amince cewa Macron zai samu tsakanin kashi 60 zuwa 65% na kuri'un, idan aka kwatanta da kashi 35-40% na Le Pen.

Da wadannan bayanai, tare da la’akari da cewa saura makonni biyu a gudanar da zaben. a ranar 24 Mun samar da samfurin bisa ga abin da Macron ya samu damar kashi 82,1%. dorawa, idan aka kwatanta da 17,9% na Le Pen. Mun yi gargadin har ma a lokacin cewa kowace rana da ta wuce ba tare da wani abin da ya dace da ya faru ba ya yi aiki a cikin yardar Macron, yana ƙara haɓaka damar samun nasara.

Mun kai Juma’a 28 ga Afrilu. Tuni saura kwana 9 domin zaben, da Babu wani abu mai mahimmanci da ya canza. A jiya Le Pen ta samu ‘yar karamar nasara, inda aka yi ta murna a daidai matakin da aka yi wa Macron ihu. Kuri'ar dai ta nuna hakan ne tare da samun koma-baya wanda ya ba shi damar fitowa daga kashi 38.2% na kuri'u zuwa kashi 40.2%. Wannan wani gagarumin ci gaba ne a yawan kuri'u, amma damar da ya samu na samun nasara ta karshe, bisa ga tsarinmu, da kyar ya karu daga jiya zuwa yau da kashi shida cikin goma, kuma, a hakikanin gaskiya, ya yi kasa da wanda ya samu kwana guda bayan gudanar da zagaye na farko. . Kuma lokaci yana gaba da su. Le Pen za ta buƙaci ƙarin abubuwan ban mamaki fiye da jiya don juyar da yanayin, canje-canjen da zai haifar da canji mai zurfi a cikin ji na masu jefa kuri'a. In ba haka ba, za ku ga 'yan damar ku da sauri suna ɓacewa yayin da kwanaki ke wucewa.

Duk da kyakkyawar ranar da Le Pen ta samu a jiya, matsakaicin mu yana sanya ta nesa da abokin hamayyarta a cikin kashi 40.2% da kashi 59.8% kuma cikin yuwuwar samun nasara (16.0%).

Fihirisar mu, ba shakka, ba ita ce kaɗai ake haɓaka kan wannan batu ba. Kowa ya yarda cewa Macron yana da damar samun nasara fiye da Le Pen, amma sun yi sabani kan rawar da wucewar lokaci da kuma yiwuwar bakar fata ke takawa a cikin wannan lamari.

Wannan shi ne ɗayan mafi ƙarfi da ke goyon bayan Macron:

https://twitter.com/TheCrosstab/status/857591311251247105

Kuma wannan yana ɗaya daga cikin waɗanda ke ba Le Pen damammaki:

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/857421835687907329

Tsakanin wannan 1-2% na damar da wasu ke ba Le Pen (kuma wanda shine, da gaske, yiwuwar cewa za ta ji dadin idan za a gudanar da za ~ e a yau), da kuma 25% da wasu ke ba ta (watakila karin gishiri game da tasirin lokaci da kuma karin lokaci). yuwuwar "black swans") sune, kusan tabbas, 'yan ainihin damar da Le Pen ta bari.

Kuma, a matsayin taƙaitaccen yadda lamarin yake, ga tweet daga Kiko Llaneras daidai yake koyaushe:

6/ Don cin nasara Le Pen yana buƙatar wani abu ya faru. Abin kunya, abin kunya. Wataƙila fare sun dogara da hakan: suna ba shi yuwuwar 12%.

- Kiko Llaneras (@kikollan) Afrilu 27, 2017