Macron yana da kashi 82,1% na damar yin nasara

da binciken gaggawa wanda aka buga jiya, washegarin bayan Macron (socioliberal) da Le Pen (ultra-right) sun lashe zaben shugaban kasar Faransa zagaye na biyu a ranar 7 ga Mayu, sun amince cewa a zagaye na biyu Macron zai samu tsakanin kashi 60% zuwa 65% na kuri'un, idan aka kwatanta da 35-40% na kishiyarta. Amfanin yana da yawa sosai kowa yasan cewa Macron zai yi nasara kai tsaye kuma zai zama shugaban Faransa na gaba.

Suna da gaskiya, amma ba haka suke ba. Idan muka yi la'akari da ɓarna na kuskuren waɗannan binciken, har ma da la'akari da wasu kurakurai masu yuwuwa a cikin samfuri ko hanya, sakamakon da muke samu shine. Macron ya yi nasara a kashi 99,98% na lamuran. Yana da alama wani abu da ba za a iya jayayya ba, tabbatacce.

Amma ba za a yi zaben shugaban kasa a yau 25 ga Afrilu ba. Za a yi bikin su ne a ranar 7 ga Mayu. Don haka mun manta wani abu mai mahimmanci: mahimmancin wucewar lokaci. Mafi nisa gaskiyar ita ce, mafi rashin tabbas. Zai fi sauƙi a iya hasashen yanayin gobe da safe fiye da kwanaki goma sha huɗu daga yanzu, kuma babu wani masanin yanayi mai tsanani da zai faɗi wani abu akan hasashen abin da zai faru a ranar 7 ga Mayu.

Cikakkun yanayin yanayin yanayi yana da rudani sosai, kuma rashin tabbas game da shi yana da girma sosai. Gaskiyar siyasa ba ta da tabbas, amma kuma ba ta da tabbas. Kafin ranar 7 ga Mayu, wani lamari na iya faruwa a Faransa ko a duniya wanda zai canza ra'ayin masu jefa kuri'a sosai. Le Pen na iya yin wani yunƙuri mai haske ko kuma (mafi yuwuwar) Macron na iya yin kuskure. Yana yiwuwa. Abubuwa da yawa na iya faruwa kafin lokacin. Don haka mun gabatar da wani kashi na tarwatsawa na ɗan lokaci a lissafin mu don ganin yiwuwar samun nasara ga kowane daga cikin 'yan takara biyu mafi dacewa. Wannan wani abu ne da muka rasa a zabukan Amurka, lokacin da wasu bisa tsari suka baiwa Clinton fiye da kashi 99% na samun nasara yayin da wasu, bisa ga bayanai iri daya, sun ba ta kashi 75%, 80% kawai, saboda sun yi la'akari da shi, daidai. , hujjoji kamar haka.

Don haka muna ƙyale kanmu mu saba da fassarori masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, waɗanda manyan mutane suka shirya, kamar wannan:

https://twitter.com/TheCrosstab/status/856887055254773761

https://twitter.com/TheCrosstab/status/856883232066990080

A cikin yanayin Faransa, lokacin yin la'akari da rashin tabbas na ɗan lokaci, gangaren kararrawa na Gaussian yana da laushi sosai, yana buɗe kewayon yuwuwar. Don haka mun sami cewa Macron zai yi nasara tare da yuwuwar kashi 82,1% kawai. Wannan lissafin har yanzu yana hasashen samun nasara mai yuwuwa, amma ba tabbas ba ne. Yayin da kwanaki ke tafe, idan babu wani abu da ya faru na ban mamaki, damar Macron za ta karu, har sai sun kusan kusan 100% a ranar zaben. Amma abin ya rage a gani.