Pollwatch: matsakaicin nauyi na kuri'un Turai

Bayan ƙaddamar da Yuro-PollCheck, da kuma ta hanyar haɗin gwiwa da kafofin watsa labaru na Turai EuObserver muna farin cikin gabatar muku Matsakaicin yawan zaɓenmu na zaɓen Majalisar Turai na watan Yuni.

Akwai ƙididdiga da yawa waɗanda aka buga ya zuwa yanzu ga EU, mafi yawancin sun dogara ne akan matsakaicin matsakaicin bayanan binciken da aka buga don ƙasashe da yawa, amma babu ɗayansu yayi la'akari da nauyin daban-daban na masu jefa ƙuri'a waɗanda ke hasashen yanayin zaɓe a cikin Ƙasashen memba bisa ga amincinsu ko matakin daidaiton tarihi.

Saboda haka, in EM-Analytics mun sauka aiki kuma Mun samar da wata hanya ta kiyasin sakamakon da ba ta la'akari da abubuwa kamar amincin zaɓe ko ƙiyasin shiga.

Don shirya matsakaicin nauyi, an haɓaka matakai masu zuwa:

1. Rarraba AMINCI na Pollster

An tattara bayanai daga dukkan rumfunan zaɓen da aka buga na kiran zaɓe guda uku na ƙarshe a cikin ƙasashe membobin.

An yi lissafin karkatar da kiyasin kowace jam’iyya ne bisa la’akari da kididdigar kuri’u daga hasashen karshe na kowane mai kada kuri’a, ban da zaben fitar da gwani.

Karɓar mai jefa ƙuri'a a cikin kowane kira shine jimillar cikakkar dabi'u na karkatattun ƙuri'un jam'iyyun siyasa.

Matsakaicin karkata, wanda ke haifar da rabe-raben masu jefa kuri'a (Euro PollCheck) shine matsakaicin karkacewar kira uku na ƙarshe ta hanyar jefa kuri'a da ƙasa.

Duba Yuro-PollCheck nan

2. Ƙimar shiga

Don lissafta bayanan shiga An dogara ne akan ƙidayar zaɓe, bisa ƙidayar bayanan baya-bayan nan kan yawan mutanen da suka haura shekaru 18 da ake samu a Eurostat ga kowace ƙasa.

Don ƙididdige bayanan shiga, an yi matsakaicin shiga cikin kira uku na ƙarshe na Turai don kowace ƙasa, ana ba da nauyin 50% ga bayanan 2019 da sauran 50% zuwa matsakaicin shiga na 2014 da 2019.

3. Kiyasin kuri'a

Ana yin lissafin ƙididdigar ƙididdigewa ta hanyar amfani da matsakaicin matsakaicin nauyi na sabbin zaɓen da aka buga don zaɓen Turai a 2024 ta kowane mai jefa ƙuri'a.

Kowane mai jefa kuri'a an ba shi takamaiman nauyi a kowace ƙasa, gwargwadon matsayinsa a cikin ma'aunin karkatacciyar tarihi. An kafa mafi ƙarancin 5/10 ga waɗanda ke da sabani fiye da sau 2 matsakaicin kuskuren masu jefa ƙuri'a a waccan ƙasar, da rarrabuwa na layi tsakanin 5 zuwa 10 don sabawa tsakanin 2xMAE da 0.

Ana ƙididdige yawan adadin ƙuri'un na kowace jam'iyya a matsayin matsakaita na yin amfani da ninninka kididdigar kididdigar kowane mai jefa ƙuri'a da nauyin da aka ce.

4. Ƙimar MEPs

Da zarar an yi lissafin adadin kuri’un kowace jam’iyya. Adadin masu jefa ƙuri'a da za su goyi bayan an ce an kiyasta jam'iyyun siyasa (daga ƙidayar jama'a da bayanan shiga) [ƙidayar * shiga * kashi].

Ana yin ƙididdige ƙididdiga na wakilai bisa ga rarraba daidaitattun ta hanyar tsarin D'Hondt, la'akari da ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun ƙofofin da ake bukata don samun wakilci ta ƙasa.

Don yin wannan, an rarraba bayanan ƙididdiga na ƙididdiga ga kowane ɓangare tsakanin lambobi masu daidaitawa da waɗanda ke daidai da ko mafi girma fiye da na ƙarshe wanda ke ba da izinin shiga Majalisar Turai an sanya su a matsayin MEPs (idan dai ya fi girma ko daidai da shingen shiga, in In ba haka ba, an sanya 'yan majalisar 0).

5. Data Pooling

Don ƙididdige ƙuri'u ta dangin siyasa, ana ƙara masu jefa ƙuri'a na jam'iyyun siyasa na kowace iyali a kowace ƙasa, kuma ana ƙididdige yawan adadinsu na jimillar ƙidayar da kiyasin shiga. Hakazalika, tara masu jefa ƙuri'a ta dangi daga ƙasashe daban-daban yana ba da damar samun bayanan duniya game da tallafin dangi a cikin ƙungiyar gaba ɗaya.

MEPs daga dangin siyasa sakamakon jimillar wakilai ne daga jam'iyyun da aka ba wa iyalai.

Rarraba kuri'u da 'yan majalisar wakilai ta dangi, jam'iyya da kasa

Kiyasin ya yi la'akari da kusan jam'iyyu 200 da ke da burin samun wakilci a zaben watan Yuni, wasu daga cikinsu sun hadu a cikin kawance (kamar yadda lamarin yake a cikin Sumar da rabon kujeru da Sumar/Comuns/Compromís/IU/Mas Madrid/Equo...).

Don haka, a cikin EuObserver zaku iya tuntuɓar bayanan zaɓe na duniya da MEPs ta dangi ga EU gabaɗayan EU, da kuma lalacewar ƙasa da jam'iyya. Hakanan za ku ga goyon bayan da kowane iyali ke da shi a cikin ƙasashe memba daban-daban a taswirar zafi, da taswirar iyali ta ƙasa.

A halin yanzu, an fitar da wannan kashi na farko a bayyane (ƙarin keɓantacce ga masu biyan kuɗi gobe).

Shiga binciken a cikin EuObserver kuma duba hotuna masu ma'amala

Buɗe sigar farko - sabuntawa don alamu masu zuwa nan ba da jimawa ba

Abokan cinikinmu wani yanki ne na asali na wannan al'umma, don haka za ku sami damar yin amfani da duk waɗannan abubuwan cikin keɓancewar, ta hanyar yarjejeniya da aka cimma tsakanin EM-Electomanía da EuObserver, wanda zai ba ku damar samun damar su ba tare da ƙarin farashi ba.

Kada ku rasa komai, zama majiɓinci kuma za ku sami damar samun sabuntawa na mako-mako farawa a watan Mayu.

Mun shirya rahoton PDF mai shafuka sama da 100 tare da cikakkun bayanai, wanda muka bar muku a nan: