[Prehistory] Idan muka zabi shugaban kasa kamar a Amurka fa?

An fara buga labarin a ranar 14 ga Yuli, 2018

A cikin kwanakin nan na sabuwar gwamnatin PSOE, na sabbin 'yan takarar da za su shugabanci Jam'iyyar Popular Party, muna tunani da yawa game da "shugabannin." Don haka, mun tambayi kanmu, wane ne zai zama shugabanmu idan muka zabe shi kamar a Amurka?

Amsa ita ce, ba mu da wani tunani, domin tsarinmu ba na shugaban kasa ba ne, na majalisa ne, mazabarmu ita ce lardi ba Jiha ba, kuma saboda...to, saboda wasu bayanai da yawa da ba za mu ci gaba ba.

Amma wannan wasa ne mai sauƙi don haka za mu sauƙaƙa da yawa: bari mu yi tunanin cewa lardunanmu sun kasance kamar kowace Jihohi a ƙasar Trump da Hillary. Bari mu yi amfani da bayanan da muke da su don ganin abubuwan hauka da muka zo da su.

A can ne ake zabar shugaban da gungun wakilai, jimillar mutane 538. Kowace Jiha tana zayyana adadin da ya kai adadin wakilanta (majalissar wakilai) da Sanatoci. Sannan kuma idan ana maganar nada shugaban kasa, dukkan wakilan jihar za su zabi dan takarar da ya ci a can, ko da kuwa da bambancin kuri’a ne. Don haka za ku iya lashe zaben shugaban kasa a cikin kuri'u amma ku rasa shi a cikin wakilai na Amurka gaba daya. Hasali ma dai wannan shi ne abin da ya faru da Hillary Clinton wadda ta yi nasara akan Trump da kusan kuri’u miliyan uku, amma ta sha kaye saboda wakilai 232 ne kawai ta samu idan aka kwatanta da 306 da abokin takararta ya samu.

Menene zai faru a Spain idan muka yi amfani da tsarin irin wannan?

Da farko dai mun duba zabukan gama gari da aka gudanar a baya. Idan a Amurka an nada wakilai 538, a Spain za a sami 558 (mambobi 350 da Sanatocin lardi 208). Rarraba su tare da ma'auni iri ɗaya, za mu sami wannan taswira daga 26-J-2016:

Idan a Spain muna da tsarin shugaban kasa kamar na Amurka, Rajoy zai zama shugaban kasa bisa ga zaben 2016 kuma ... zai ci gaba da kasancewa har yau, saboda ba za a yi wani yunkuri na tozarta ko wani abu makamancin haka da zai iya faruwa ba. ya hana shi.

Amma da ma an sami wasu bambance-bambance masu ban sha'awa. Matsayi na biyu, ba a cikin kuri'un ba amma a cikin wakilai, zai tafi Pablo Iglesias, maimakon Pedro Sánchez. Bugu da ƙari kuma, a yawancin lardunan Catalonia da Basque Country, ana iya samun sabani cewa ɗan takara mai kishin ƙasa zai yi nasara wanda ba ya son zama shugaban ƙasa da gaske, tunda wannan yana buƙatar kasancewar ko'ina cikin Spain. Don haka, za su zama irin waɗanda ba 'yan takara ba ko masu zanga-zangar. A ƙarshe, Albert Rivera zai sami rosco mai ƙarfi, cikakkiyar sifili a cikin wakilai, wanda shine abin da ke da mahimmanci.

Amma a yau al’amura sun canja sosai ta yadda watakila bai kamata mu kalli 2016 ba sai dai ga gaskiyar da muke ciki. Ƙaddamar da binciken na yanzu zuwa taswirar Spain da kuma ba da wakilai kamar a "Amurka", mun sami wannan taswirar sabuntawa daga Yuli 2018:

A cikin zaɓen shugaban ƙasa da za a yi a yau, an raba ƙuri'ar dama ta tsakiya tsakanin PP da Ciudadanos, kuma tare da PSOE da ta yi fice, wannan jam'iyyar za ta sami isasshen damar yin nasara a yawancin larduna, ko da a yawancin larduna. daga gare su, a ɗan ƙunci, kuma ku riki wakilansu (dukansu). Tare da waɗannan takaddun shaida, Pedro Sánchez zai zama shugaban ƙasa, a fili, ba tare da matsaloli da yawa ba. Dan takarar PP, ko ana kiransa Soraya ko Pablo, zai kai sama da wakilai dari da matsayi na biyu mai daraja, amma mara amfani. Bugu da ƙari, Albert Rivera zai iya samun nasara a wasu larduna biyu, wanda, da yake da yawan jama'a, zai bar shi a cikin wani matsayi na wulakanci fiye da 2016. 'Yan takarar da ba na kasa ba za su inganta matsayi, kuma, a ƙarshe, za a bar Pablo Iglesias. nisa a baya, Sánchez alluvium ya wargaje.

Tabbas, wannan motsa jiki ne kawai, wasa. Idan da a ce mun yi irin wannan gwaji shekara guda da ta wuce, da cikakken wanda ya yi nasara shi ne ... Mariano Rajoy, wanda a yau ya bace daga fagen siyasa. Amma da mun yi wata biyu kacal da suka wuce!! Da an karbe shugabancin kasar ne daga titin Albert Rivera.

Haka abubuwa suke. Komai na iya canzawa a cikin kiftawar ido, saboda haka ra'ayin jama'a ke tabarbarewa, kuma saboda haka ne (a cikin tasirinsa) tsarin Amurka ya zama.

Jose Salver