Amurka Primaries: wata mai yanke hukunci ya fara

Zaben fidda gwani na Amurka ya kai matakin karshe. Waɗannan su ne alƙawura na gaba:

A cikin jam'iyyar Democrat, abubuwan da masu jefa kuri'a na wannan jam'iyya suke a matakin kasa kusan daidai suke, yayin da Sanders ke gab da zarce Clinton a karon farko a duk fadin yakin neman zabe:

Shin hakan yana nufin duka 'yan takarar suna da dama iri ɗaya na cimma wannan takara? A'a, saboda dalilai guda biyu:

1. Domin Clinton ta tara fa'idodi da yawa a jihohin da aka riga aka gudanar da zaɓen fidda gwani.
2. Domin Clinton na da dukkan na'urorin jam'iyyar a bayanta, ta yadda kusan dukkan manyan wakilan jam'iyyar suna bangarenta, kuma tuni akwai sama da 400 daga cikinsu.

Saboda haka, tseren Demokrat, ya kasance a cikin tagomashin Clinton:

Hillary tana da wakilai kusan 1.800 daga cikin wakilai 2.383 da ake bukata don tantancewa. A ranar 26 ga Afrilu, da alama yana kusa da wannan adadi. Sanders zai buƙaci ƙarin turawa don samun dama. Sai dai idan ya sami ƙarin haɓakar 5-6% na zaɓin masu jefa ƙuri'a zai iya fatan ɗaukar manyan jihohi daga Clinton. In ba haka ba, yaƙin, a gaskiya, zai ƙare kafin ƙarshen Afrilu.

A cikin sansanin 'yan Republican, wani abu makamancin haka yana faruwa:

A matakin kasa, Cruz a karon farko yana da kusanci da Trump, wanda ya ragu kasa da kashi 40 cikin dari na jam’iyyar Republican, lamarin da bai taba faruwa ba tun bayan tafiyar Rubio. Koyaya, fa'idar da aka tara har yanzu tana da girma, kuma Kasich bai gama ɗauka ba.

Har yanzu dai kusan wakilai 500 ne ya rage Trump ya lashe zaben, kuma Cruz na iya karba daga gare shi ko da akwai abubuwan mamaki da ke nuna goyon bayan sa a zaben fidda gwani a cikin makonni biyu masu zuwa.

Madogara: Bayanin kansa dangane da RealClearPolitics da The New York Times.