Super Talata (II): Muhimmin taron don firamare a New York.

Muhimman zabe a gobe a jihar New York.

A gare shi Jam'iyyar Democrat fa'ida a cikin zaben Clinton jeri daga 10 zuwa 17 maki. Abin jira a gani shine ko NY za ta kasance jihar da zaben ya yi daidai, kamar Ohio ko Florida, ko kuma jihar da zaben ya raina Sanders, kamar Idaho ko Utah.

Duk abin da ya faru a bayyane yake cewa Sanders za a ci gaba, don haka sai mu dakata har zuwa ranar Talata mai zuwa 26, tare da nadin a wasu jihohi da ke gabar tekun Atlantika, wadanda za su zabi wakilai 384, da yawa fiye da wadanda NY suka zaba a gobe, wadanda 247. Za a fara wannan nadin. Clinton da kuri'un da ke fuskantar manyan jihohin biyu: Pennsylvania (wakilai 189) da Mayrland (wakilai 95).

Komai yana nuna cewa har zuwa 7 ga Yuni, lokacin da California ta jefa kuri'ar wakilanta 475, ba za a sami wata cikakkiyar nasara ga kowane mai takara ba.. Ga waccan jihar, zaɓen ya yi hasashen fa'idar Clinton akan Sanders na kusan maki 10-15.

Halin da ake ciki:

Clinton: kuri'u 1.786 ( wakilai 1.307+479 superdeleg)

• Sanders: 1.137 kuri'u (1.097 wakilai + 40 superdeleg)

A halin yanzu Clinton ta samu nasara a cikin 16 Primaries da Caucuses 2, yayin da Sanders ya yi hakan a cikin 5 Primaries da 11 Caucuses, wanda ke nuna karfin dattijon dan takarar a cikin kujerun da rauninsa a cikin Firamare, wanda zai iya cutar da shi saboda 18. sauran zabuka (jihohi 16 da DC da Puerto Rico) duk Firamare ne sai daya, North Dakota, wanda ke zabar wakilai ta Caucus.

Daga cikin manyan jihohi (waɗanda suka zaɓi wakilai sama da 100 na Demokraɗiyya) nasarar Clinton ta yi yawa, jihohi 6 (Georgia, Texas, Florida, Illinois, North Carolina da Ohio) idan aka kwatanta da Sanders'2 (Michigan da Washington).

Zaɓen zaɓen fidda gwani na New York Jam'iyyar Republican Suna nuna kyakkyawan nasara ga Donald Trump (50% -55%), idan aka kwatanta da John Kasich (20% -25%) da Ted Cruz (15% -20%). Wannan sakamakon zai iya kawowa Trump kusanci sosai da takarar Republican, amma kuma hakan zai baiwa Kasich fuka-fuki yin tsayin daka har zuwa ranar Talata mai zuwa 26 ga wata, inda za a gudanar da zaben fidda gwani a jihohi 5 da ke gabar tekun Atlantika inda zai iya zarce Cruz.

Da alama yana ƙara wahala ga GOP ya dakatar da motsi na Trump. Komai nawa Kasich ya janye bayan taron da aka yi a ranar 26 ga wata, Cruz zai sha wahala sosai wajen samun nasara a California, kuma ko cin nasara ba zai rufe yawan wakilan da Trump ke da shi ba.

Halin da ake ciki yanzu shine:

• Donald Trump: wakilai 755

• Ted Cruz: wakilai 521

• John Kasich: wakilai 144

• Wasu: 189 (173 na Marco Rubio)

Ya zuwa yanzu Trump ya ci nasara a jihohi 20 (ciki har da mafi yawan mafi girma: Georgia, Florida, Illinois ko North Carolina) yayin da Cruz ya yi nasara a 11 (kuma a cikin mafi girma a Texas kawai). Kasich ya yi nasara a Ohio da Rubio a Minnesota (ban da DC da Puerto Rico).

Labari daga CDDMT.