USA: e like me ka ʻōlelo a Nate Silver hiki i ka Hale o nā Lunamakaʻāinana ke lilo i Democratic ma mua o ka hopena o ka makahiki

Ma ka la 6 o Novemaba, ka peresidena Hoʻokani ʻo Donald Trump i kāna bet mua koho ma hope o kona kamahaʻo lanakila ma ke koho peresidena aneane elua makahiki aku nei.

Ma kēlā me kēia ʻelua makahiki, hoʻololi hou ʻia ka hapakolu o ka Senate a me ka Hale o nā Lunamakaʻāinana holoʻokoʻa. I kēia manawa, loaʻa iā Trump ka hapa nui o ka Repubalika o 51 mau senators i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 47 Democrats, a ʻelua mau lālā ʻole, akā hiki ke loli nā mea i kekahi mau mahina. Ma ka Hale o na Lunamakaainana (Hale), ua oi aku ka nui o ka pono Repubalika, 241 a 194.

Eia nō naʻe, ʻO kahi o Trump i paʻakikī loa ʻaʻole i ka Senate, akā i ka House. ʻO ka hana hou o ka Senate he hapa, pili wale i ka hapakolu o kona mau lālā, a ʻo ka hapa nui o ka poʻe i haʻalele he Democrats, no laila, me he mea lā ʻo ka ATP tennis classification, ʻo ka mea i loaʻa ka hopena maikaʻi loa ma mua o ka pale ʻana i ka mea e loaʻa ai. lilo Ma ka lā 6 o Nowemapa, ua haʻalele nā ​​senatoa Demokarata he 23 i ko lākou mau noho i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 10 Republicans wale nō. No ka lanakila ʻana i ka hapa nui, pono e lanakila nā Democrats ma kahi o 26 o ka 33 noho ma ka hookolokolo ana, he mea paakiki loa.

Hiki ke maʻalahi i ka poʻe Demokarata e hoʻomalu i ka Hale o nā Lunamaka'āinana, no ka mea, ua hana hou ia, a me kona noho Ua māhele ʻia lākou i nā ʻāpana koho liʻiliʻi liʻiliʻi i loaʻa i nā koho balota ka hapa nui. Wahi a ka wānana a Nate Silver, e like ke ʻano o ka palapala ʻāina (Republicans ʻulaʻula, Democrats polū):

ʻO ia hoʻi, ua loaʻa mua i ka poʻe Demokarata, he 189 mau noho ma ke keʻena, ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 134 no nā Repubalika. Wahi a Silver, he 74.6% ka manawa e lanakila ai ka Demokarata i ka hapa nui, hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 25.4% kūʻē iā ia. ʻO ka manawa kūpono, ʻo ia he like loa me ke kala i haawi ia Hillary Clinton e hiki aku i ka Hale Keʻokeʻo ma mua o kona nalowale ʻana.

Ma ia manawa, Ua koi pinepine ʻo Silver ʻaʻole i hōʻike ʻia kahi kūlana kiʻekiʻe, akā ʻAʻole i mālama ʻia kāna wehewehe ʻana, a ua ʻōlelo maʻamau ʻo ia he "hewa" i kāna wānana (ʻoiai he "hewa" ʻē aʻe kekahi, ʻaʻohe kānalua, ma ka hāʻawi ʻana iā Trump i nā manawa e lanakila ai).

ʻO ia ke kumu e pale aku ai nā poʻomanaʻo i ka hōʻike ʻana i nā pākēneka ("ʻaʻole maopopo iā lākou," wahi a Silver, "ʻaʻole maopopo iā lākou"), a e hoʻāʻo i kahi ala ʻē aʻe: nā hakina. E lanakila ana na Demokarata i ka Hale o na Lunamakaainana 3 mailoko mai o 4 manawa, lRepublicans, i hoʻokahi wale nō i loko o ʻehā. ʻO nā helu nui, nā helu pōʻai, no ka hoʻomaopopo maʻalahi ... Eia kekahi, kuhikuhi ʻo ia i ka 80% o nā hihia, kokoke loa ka hopena, ʻoiai me ka pōmaikaʻi Demokarata i ka hapa nui o ka manawa.

ʻOiai ʻo kēia mau makaʻala, ʻoiaʻiʻo, kala mālama i ka like wānana kükohu i hoʻohana 'ia ma 2016 a ʻike ʻo ia e like me ia e lanakila ai ka poʻe Demokarata. Akā, ua aʻo ʻo ia i kāna haʻawina: ʻaʻole ʻokoʻa ka ʻaha kanaka i ka heluhelu ʻana i nā poʻomanaʻo ma waena o kahi hanana "kūpono" a me kekahi "kahi" ʻē aʻe, no laila pono e hoʻokumu ʻia nā hopena me ka akahele, ʻoiai inā like nā ʻikepili. ʻAʻole pili ka ʻikepili e like me ke ʻano o ka hōʻike ʻana. Ma ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i kēia, ʻaʻole paha i makemake nui ʻo Silver i ke poʻomanaʻo a mākou i koho ai no kēia komo ʻana, akā, inā maopopo a ʻaʻole paha, ʻo ia nō ka mea i unuhi ʻia mai nā koho balota i kēia mau lā.

Mai kēia manawa a hiki i ka lā 6 Nowemapa, e hoʻomau mākou i ka nānā ʻana i ka ulu ʻana o nā… probabilities (a i ʻole nā ​​haʻihaʻi, a i ʻole kēlā me kēia inoa kālā i kāna mau wānana mai kēia manawa). LNui ka pilikia o ka hui ʻAmelika i kēlā lā. ʻO ia ka pōʻai mua o ke koho pelekikena 2020.