Palani, ke alakaʻi nei ʻo Melenchon i kahi "Carmena effect"?

Ua paʻi ʻia ka nānā ʻana o OpinionWay i kēlā me kēia lā no ka pōʻai mua o nā koho pelekikena ma Farani a hōʻike i kahi hāʻule liʻiliʻi o Marine Le Pen a me ka piʻi ʻana o ʻO Jean Luc Melenchon, hiki i ka 16% a he eha ia ma hope o Fillon.

Ke hoʻomaka nei nā koho balota e hōʻike i nā hōʻailona o ka hiki ke hoʻololi i nā poʻe koho ma waena o Le Pen, Macron a me Melenchon, nāna hiki ke lilo i kumu o ka "Carmena effect" e like me ka mea i hana ʻia ma ka hoʻolaha kūloko ma Madrid i ʻelua mau makahiki i hala, kahi i hōʻiliʻili ai ʻo Carmena i nā balota mai ka hema holoʻokoʻa, e lilo ana i "pōlota pono" me kahi "hopena kelepona" koʻikoʻi i hoʻolalelale iā ia i ka ʻaha kūkā o ke kūlanakauhale.

ʻO ka mea kikoʻī, ʻo nā koho balota i paʻi ʻia ma hope o ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa e hōʻike ana iā Melenchon ma kahi o 16-17% me ka piʻi nui a me ka hāʻule ʻana o Hamon ma 9-10% o nā balota, ma muli paha o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka hopena carryover, e like me kāu e ʻike ai ma lalo nei.

Ma ka hihia o Farani, ua hōʻike ʻia nā hoʻopaʻapaʻa koho, e like me ka poʻe koho balota, i kahi kaulike maikaʻi iā Melenchon, i hōʻike ʻia i kāna mau hanana hoʻolaha, e piʻi nui ana. Ka moho hema ke ho'āʻo nei e hopu i kekahi hapa o ke koho pāloka ʻO ka mea e pili ana iā Le Pen a i ʻole Macron, he mea ʻoi aku paha inā e hoʻomau nā koho balota i kēia ʻano piʻi o Melenchon a ʻike iā ia me nā koho e hele i ka pōʻai lua.

Ma ka ʻāina pili ʻO ka hapakolu o nā makaʻāinana e hōʻike ana iā lākou iho me ka maopopo ʻole a me ka manaʻo o ka hoʻololi ʻana i kā lākou koho balota i ka minuke hope loa, kahi mea, me ka puka ʻana mai o ka ʻaoʻao o Macron (a no laila ke kuhi hewa ʻana i nā koho balota) hiki ke hoʻolilo i ka lā koho i ʻeke kahaha kahi i pani ʻole ai ke kahua.

Aia kekahi mau manawa e hiki ai i ka piʻi ʻana o Melenchon a i ʻole Fillon ke haʻalele iā Le Pen a i ʻole Macron, he aha ka hopena inā ʻo Melenchon vs Le Pen ka lua? A he Macron vs Melenchon? ʻO ka hema, hoʻokaʻawale loa i ka ʻike ʻana ʻaʻohe o lākou koho e hele i ka pōʻai lua, hiki ke hoʻoneʻe ʻia i ka makemake o Melenchon e lawe mai i ka moho i ka paio no ka Peresidena, e waiho ana i na socialists i mea ole.

Me ke kanalua ole, he mea hoihoi loa ke koho balota e hiki mai ana a hiki ke waiho i na mea he nui aku.