Pono anei nā extrapolations o nā noho a me ka ʻaoʻao mua ma ka ʻāina?

ʻO ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o nā noho a me ka "ʻaoʻao mua ma kēlā me kēia panalāʻau" e hana pinepine ʻia mai ka ʻikepili pākēneka koho i hāʻawi ʻia e kahi anana a i ʻole ka awelika. I ka manawa pinepine, ua hoʻohewa ʻia kēia mau extrapolations ma ke ʻano he mea hana maʻemaʻe.

No ka mea he hihia hoʻopaʻapaʻa, e hoʻāʻo mākou e hana i kahi hōʻuluʻulu maʻalahi loa o nā kumu e kākoʻo ai i nā mea ʻelua. Ma kēia ala e ʻike ai mākou i ka mea hiki iā mākou a hiki ʻole ke manaʻo mai kahi extrapolation o nā noho.

HE NUI NEI NA EXTRAPOLATIONS?

ʻAʻole, ʻaʻole lākou. ʻO nā extrapolations (ma ka liʻiliʻi inā hana maikaʻi lākou) e pili ana i ka ʻikepili mai nā koho balota i hala (i ka hihia o Congress, no ka laʻana, ua hoʻokumu ʻia lākou ma ka ʻikepili mai nā koho balota 26-J-2016), a ke noʻonoʻo nei lākou i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo maoli: ʻaʻole like nā panalāʻau a pau a mālama ʻia kēia mau ʻokoʻa koho balota, ma ke ʻano nui, i ka manawa.

No laila, hāʻawi ʻia ka ʻikepili noiʻi, hiki ke extrapolate kāʻei kua e hoʻāʻo e ʻike i nā hopena hopena ʻoi loa ma ka ʻāina, a mai laila e unuhi i kahi hoʻokaʻawale kikoʻī o nā noho.

He mea pono anei keia extrapolation?

ʻAe, pono loa. ʻO ka ʻikepili i hāʻawi ʻia e ʻoi aku ka hilinaʻi a kokoke i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo inā ʻaʻole mākou i noʻonoʻo i nā ʻokoʻa mua ma waena o nā panalāʻau.

pololei anei?

ʻAʻole. Ke hoʻohana nei i kahi extrapolation o kahi noiʻi aupuni e kūkākūkā inā lanakila kēia a i kēlā ʻaoʻao ma Badajoz a i Huesca paha. ʻO nā palapala 'āina o Sepania i hāʻawi ʻia e nā extrapolations e hāʻawi i kahi kiʻi holoʻokoʻa kūpono, akā, ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, e hāʻule paha lākou a ʻoi aku ka pōʻino i ka liʻiliʻi o ka panalāʻau kahi i extrapolated.

ʻAʻole kēia manaʻo he mea waiwai ʻole ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana o nā noho i hāʻawi ʻia e nā extrapolations, no ka mea ʻO nā haʻihaʻi e kū nei ma kekahi mau panalāʻau ua hoʻopau nui ʻia e nā ʻokoʻa ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe i nā mea ʻē aʻe.. ʻO ia ke kumu e hāʻawi ai nā ʻano extrapolation like ʻole, kahaha, nā wānana noho like, ʻoiai ʻo ka palapala ʻāina o ka pāʻina mua ma ka ʻāina a lākou e hāʻawi ai. me he mea lā ʻokoʻa loa.

Pehea ʻoe e hoʻomaikaʻi ai i kahi extrapolation?

ʻO ke ʻano hana extrapolation maʻamau, ʻo ia ka hoʻopili wale ʻana i kēlā me kēia māhele koho i ka pākēneka like o ka deviation honua i ʻike ʻia no kēlā me kēia ʻaoʻao ma ka pae aupuni, alakaʻi i nā hewa, i nā hopena hiki ʻole (ʻoi aku ma mua o 100% koho balota i kekahi mau ʻāpana, no ka laʻana) , a ʻaʻole e noʻonoʻo i ka hapa o ka deviation ʻaʻole qualitative akā quantitative, ʻaʻole proportional akā kaulike ma nā ʻāpana koho āpau. Me kēia ʻenehana, no ka laʻana, ʻo kahi pāʻina nui e hele ana mai ka 20% a i ka 40% o nā balota ma ka pae aupuni mai nā koho balota i hala a hiki i ka noiʻi hou loa, e hele ana mai 40% a i 80% o ka balota ma ka ʻāina i ka ʻo ka mea i loaʻa ka nui o nā balota a me 3% a 6% i ka mea i loaʻa ka liʻiliʻi loa, no ka laʻana. ʻAʻole kūlike ia mau hopena me ka ʻoiaʻiʻo. E ʻae mākou a pau, ma ka noʻonoʻo maʻalahi, ʻo ka pakeneka maoli ma ka panalāʻau mua e emi iho ma mua o 80% a ma ka lua ma mua o 6%.

ʻO ia ke kumu ma Electomania ua hoʻomaikaʻi mākou i kā mākou ʻano extrapolation i ka makahiki i hala, me ka hoʻokomo ʻana i kahi ʻano huikau e hoʻonāukiuki i nā ʻano like ʻole.

ʻO kahi hoʻomaikaʻi ʻelua e hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia, ʻoiai ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o ka ʻenehana a ʻoi aku ka pilikia, ʻo ia ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka ulu ʻana o kēlā me kēia māhele koho e like me nā noiʻi hou loa no nā koho balota ʻē aʻe (munisipal, kūloko) a i ʻole, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, nā hopena hope o kēlā mau koho balota ʻē aʻe.

Me ka kānalua ʻole, inā hoʻokō maikaʻi ʻia kēia hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana, e hoʻomaʻemaʻe hou ia i ka ʻikepili. ʻO ka mea paʻakikī, ka mea diabolō, ʻo ia ka hoʻopili ʻana i kēlā ʻikepili a posteriori Local me nā poʻe o ka hui aupuni, a ʻaʻole hoʻi i ʻoi aku a ʻaʻole i hāʻule i ke kaumaha i hāʻawi ʻia i kēia hoʻoponopono no ka extrapolation holoʻokoʻa.

ʻO nā paukū ʻelua ma mua e wehewehe i nā ʻoiaʻiʻo paʻakikī ʻaʻole pono e wehewehe hou aku, a ʻaʻole pono e hoʻomaopopo piha ʻia. Pono ʻoe e mālama i ka manaʻo kumu: He paʻakikī ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka pūnāwai, a ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o ka hana maikaʻi ʻana no ka mea pono ia i nā hoʻoponopono maikaʻi loa.

He aha nā mea ʻē aʻe e pili ana i ka hilinaʻi o kahi extrapolation?

ʻO ke kumu kumu manawa.

ʻO ka pāpaʻi ʻana o nā ʻēheu pepeke ma Peru e hoʻololi i ke ea o Siberia, me ke ʻano wale nō e hāʻawi ai mākou i kēlā mana i ka manawa kūpono e hoʻokō ai. Pēlā nō, e emi iho ana ka hilinaʻi o nā hopena o ke koho balota ʻana i ka wā e hele ai, no ka mea, nui nā "butterflies" e pāpaʻi ana i ko lākou mau ʻēheu a hoʻololi i kēlā me kēia panalāʻau i kona ʻano ponoʻī. No laila, e lilo ana ka "anuila" koho i ka wā e hiki mai ana, i ka hala ʻana o nā mahina, ʻoi aku ka hiki ʻole ke ʻike ʻia ma ka pae kūloko, ʻoiai ua loaʻa iā mākou ka ʻikepili honua hilinaʻi.

ʻO nā koho balota i hana ʻia i hoʻokahi mahina ma hope o ke koho balota nui e maʻalahi loa ka extrapolate, a ʻoi aku ka maopopo o ka hopena o ka extrapolation ma mua o nā makahiki ʻehā ma hope.

ʻO kahi hiʻohiʻona o kēia, i lawe ʻia i ke koʻikoʻi, ʻo ia ke koho pelekikena ʻAmelika, kahi i hoʻohālikelike ʻia ai nā hopena no nā mokuʻāina 51 o ka Union e nā pollsters, ma kahi hapa, mai ka ʻikepili aupuni honua. Ua hoʻonui ka ʻōnaehana koho balota ʻAmelika i nā hewa o kēia mau extrapolations, a hāʻawi iā Trump i lanakila i nā ʻelele ʻaʻole ʻo ia i hoʻokokoke loa i nā balota. ʻAʻole i hāʻule nā ​​koho balota ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa i kēlā mau koho balota: akā, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ko lākou pae holomua.

ʻO Nate Silver, no ka laʻana, aneane "nai" i nā hopena holoʻokoʻa o Hillary Clinton a me Donald Trump. Akā, ua kuhi hewa ʻo ia i ka hāʻawi ʻana i nā mokuʻāina kī a no laila ke kūlana lanakila o kēlā me kēia:

wānana…

…a me ka mea maoli

Ma kahi o na Demokarata i lanakila ai, ua oi aku ka nui o lakou mamua o ka mea i manaoia, aole nae ia i haawi aku ia lakou i mau lunamakaainana, oiai ma kahi i manaoia ai he pai, ua haki wale ia no ka aoao o na Repubalika, a pela lakou i ohi ai i na lunamakaainana he nui aku mamua o manaʻo ʻia. Pela, ʻOiai e hana pololei ana ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa, ua hana hewa ka poʻe koho balota ma ka ʻāina.

ʻO ka pāpaʻi ʻana o nā ʻēheu o ka pepeke o ka haunaele i makemake iā Trump a ua aʻo mai iā mākou i kekahi mea kumu: mai nānā nui i nā kikoʻī, no ka mea, ua hewa paha ʻo ia. E hoʻomau kākou i ke kiʻi maʻamau, no ka mea, pololei paha ia.

A me kekahi mea. ʻO ka hopena butterfly", ʻO ka mana o ka haunaele i ka hoʻololi ʻana i nā hopena he nui i nā ʻōnaehana koho nui a ma na elele e like me ko Amerika Huipuia, aka ʻoi aku ka hiki ke hoʻomalu i nā ʻōnaehana proportional. ʻO ka mea pōmaikaʻi, ma Sepania he ʻōnaehana ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ʻole ma mua o ko ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. No laila, ʻoi aku ka hilinaʻi o kā mākou extrapolations, me nā hemahema āpau.

ʻO ke kūlana wale nō e hiki ai kēia, ʻo ia ... ʻo ia ... ua hana maikaʻi ʻia nā noiʻi. Manaʻolana mākou e like ka maikaʻi e like me kā Nate Silver i manaʻo ai no ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.

I kēia manawa, haʻalele mākou i ka mea hope loa i paʻi ʻia ma Sepania, e Celeste-Tel, me kona hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i nā noho a me kā mākou extrapolation e nā panalāʻau.

Manaʻoʻiʻo mākou, akā kūpono kēlā. Pehea kou manaʻo?

Jose Salver