Ua pololei nā noiʻi: ʻO Logica maʻalahi (nā koho) a me IMOP (nā noho) ka mea maikaʻi loa

ʻOiai nā pilikia nui i hōʻike ʻia e ka puka ʻana mai o kahi hui hou. pololei loa nā koho ma keia manawa. ʻO ka hewa i nā pākēneka koho i pili i na aoao nui elima i ʻano liʻiliʻi. Ma nā noho, ʻoi aku ka paʻakikī o ka helu ʻana, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma lalo o ʻumi i kēlā me kēia pāʻina. ʻAʻohe mea e pili ana i ka pōʻino i loaʻa iā mākou ma nā koho balota i hala, i Iune 2016, kahi kokoke i nā pollsters āpau i loaʻa i nā deviations ʻoi aku ma mua o 2,25% o nā balota no ka ʻaoʻao (nui).

I kēia manawa, Loaʻa i nā kula āpau ke kauoha hope loa o nā pāʻani nui ʻelima pololei, ma nā balota a me nā noho, a ua hoʻomaʻemaʻe nui lākou, ʻoiai ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻana o ka wahi ʻekolu, a priori. ʻIke ʻia nā ʻokoʻa nui loa, ma ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana o Vox, a ma ka PSOE, i loaʻa i kahi kahe hou o nā balota i paʻakikī ke ana i kahi priori.

ʻO ka pule hope o ka hoʻolaha a me nā paio hoʻolauleʻa ʻia ʻAʻole lākou i kōkua i ka wehewehe ʻana i nā mea, aka, no ka hoopilikino hou ana aku ia lakou, a ua ikeia keia ma na koho balota hope loa, aole i maikai, me kekahi mau mea e ae, na holomua o na koho balota i hoopuka ia i ka pule mamua aku.

IMOP INSIGHTS (El Confidencial) alakaʻi i ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana o nā poʻe koho balota ma nā noho, me kahi hoʻohālikelike maikaʻi loa o 5 mau noho no ka pāʻani. ʻIke ʻia ka paʻa o ka wānana ma ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ʻaʻole i kōkua ka pule i hala i kēia hui e hoʻomaikaʻi i kāna kuhi, ʻoi aku ka ʻokoʻa. ʻO kaʻoiaʻiʻo,ʻo ia ka meaʻoi loa i waena o ka poʻe i paʻi i kaʻikepili ma ka lā hoʻokahi o ka lā 28. ʻOi aku kaʻino i loko o ke kumu.

Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ma nā pākēneka koho i loaʻa kekahi hopena kupaianaha wale nō, e like me ka hihia Loiko maʻalahi, nona ka noiʻi i paʻi ʻia i ʻelua pule a me ka hapa ma mua o ke koho balota. Minamina ʻo ia ʻaʻole ʻo ia i koho i ka nui o nā noho i hiki ai iā mākou ke hōʻoia i kēia manawa i kona degere o ka holomua ma kēlā ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe. Loaʻa nā hopena ma lalo o 2% hewa, a ʻO ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe wale nō hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale ʻia, me ka ʻole o nā palliatives, e like me "ʻino“. ʻO nā mea koho balota ʻē aʻe āpau "ʻae." ʻO GAD3, me nā hualoaʻa haʻahaʻa i ka hoʻokolokolo hoʻopau ʻana o ka hoʻolaha, ua hoʻomaikaʻi hou aku i ka mea i paʻi ʻia ma ka lā koho. Noho hou ʻo IMOP i nā kūlana alakaʻi ma nā koho balota i hala, akā ʻo ia ka mea hope loa i ka lā koho, e hōʻike ana i ka pili (a me ka pololei) o lākou a pau e pili ana i kekahi i kekahi.

No ka Manaʻo CIS, aia ma ka laina o ka holomua e hōʻike ana i kēia mau koho balota, me ma luna o kahi 1% deviation no nā ʻaoʻao nui ʻelima. Me ka kānalua ʻole, ua hana ʻo ia i kahi "kusina" kūpono no kēia manawa, haʻalele i ka papa ʻo kāna i hoʻohana ai i nā mahina i hala, ua kōkua nui iā ia. ʻO kēlā me kēia hihia, kūpono ke ʻike.

Hoʻokomo pū mākou kā mākou panela i ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana, ʻoiai ʻaʻole lākou he loiloi ma ke ʻano koʻikoʻi, e hoʻomaʻamaʻa i ka ʻike. Ua māʻona mākou, me nā hopena kūpono, mahalo i nā kaukani nīnau i loaʻa iā mākou a ua kōkua iā mākou e hoʻomaʻemaʻe i nā hopena. Aia iā mākou calibrated Ciudadanosʻikepili maikaʻi loa a Unidas Podemos, a me ka poʻe o ka ʻaoʻao Popular i kūpono maikaʻi. ʻO ka mea kahiko loa kikowaena ua hiki mai ma ko makou manao o Vox, ka mea a makou i oi aku ai (e like me ko makou haule ana ma Andalusia), a me ka PSOE.

Ke hana nei kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike, akā i ka manawa like, ʻike mākou aia kona ikaika i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo Hiki iā mākou ke hoʻomaikaʻi hou i kou mau nāwaliwali, koho ma hope o ke koho ʻana, ma o ka hōʻiliʻili ʻana i ka ʻikepili mau a me ka hoʻomaikaʻi mau. Manaʻo mākou e hilinaʻi mākou i kāu kākoʻo e like me ka wā ma mua. Mahalo iā ʻoe ua hiki mai mākou i kēia mamao.

I loko o nā lā ʻelua e hoʻokomo mākou i ka ʻikepili mai kēia mau koho balota i ka hoʻokaʻawale nui ʻana o nā koho balota, me nā helu hoʻoponopono hou a mākou e hoʻopili ai i ka awelika o nā koho balota, a e hoʻolaha mākou ma aneʻi.

ka hopena: ke koena nui o na koho balota ma keia mau koho baloka Ua maikaʻi loa, Ua hōʻoia maikaʻi ʻia i ka ʻike ʻana i nā ʻano a loaʻa iā ia ka pololei awelika maikaʻi. He ho'āʻo hou nā koho balota ma ka lā 26 o Mei, a ma ka lā 27, e like me nā manawa a pau, e nānā mākou ma aneʻi i ka leka, a i ʻole, ma waena o nā noiʻi i paʻi ʻia a me ka ʻoiaʻiʻo.