ʻO ka Eurovision 2023 predictive model i hana ʻia e Datamania

Nā hualoaʻa hoʻohālike wānana Datamania

Nānā: ʻO nā hopena i hōʻike ʻia ma lalo nei e hōʻano hou i kēlā me kēia lā a hiki i ka wā e hiki mai ana e 12 (lā ma mua o ka hopena), ke paʻi ʻia nā hopena hope.

Pehea mākou e helu ai i ka ʻikepili no kā mākou hoʻohālike wānana?

En Datamania Ke nānā nei mākou i nā hiʻohiʻona koho, nā jure a me nā televoting, e kū nei ma Eurovision no nā makahiki a me ko lākou pilina me nā hopena i hōʻike ʻia i kēlā me kēia makahiki. ana a me ka mau pāʻani a puni ʻEulopa. Akā me ka poina ʻole i kahi kikoʻī i mea nui hoʻi i ka hoʻoholo ʻana i kekahi o nā balota: ka pili geopolitical ma waena o nā ʻāina i komo.

Me kēia mau mea a pau, a ma hope o nā hola he nui o ka noiʻi, ma Datamania ua hoʻokō mākou e hana i kahi algorithm e ho'āʻo e wānana i nā hopena o ka Eurovision Song Contest. No ia mea, I kēlā me kēia lā e hana mākou i 10.000 simulation (me ka ʻoi aku o 1 miliona mau ʻikepili i hana ʻia) a hiki i ka lā ma mua o ka hopena (Mei 12).

ʻO ka 4.000 mau hoʻohālikelike i kēlā me kēia lā e waiho iā mākou i kahi papa o nā hopena hoʻohālike (i hōʻike ʻia ma luna) akā he ʻano o nā kūlana kūpono. No ka manawa, e hōʻike mākou i kēlā me kēia lā i nā koho o kēlā me kēia ʻāina e hoʻopau i ka TOP1 (lanakila), TOP5 y TOP10.

Eia kekahi e 12, i ka lā ma mua o ka Grand Final, e hoʻolaha mākou i ka ʻikepili hope loa o kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike e komo pū ana, ma waho aʻe o ka papa kuhikuhi hopena, ka laulā o nā kūlana i wānana ʻia e kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike no kēlā me kēia ʻāina. ʻO kā mākou pahuhopu kēlā ma ka liʻiliʻi he 21 o nā ʻāina he 26 nā mea komo i ka hopena hope loa ma kekahi o kā mākou kūlana wānana.

I ka makahiki 2022, ua pau ka 84% o nā ʻāina i kā mākou papa hoʻohālike

I ka makahiki i hala ua paʻi mākou no ka manawa mua ma kā mākou moʻokāki Twitter hoʻohālike wānana e pili ana i ke kūlana e noho ai kēlā me kēia ʻāina i ka Eurovision 2022 hope loa. 21 o 25 mau ʻāina ka mea i komo i ka hope Ua hoʻopau lākou ma ka laulā o nā kūlana i wānana ʻia e kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike.

ʻO kēia ka wānana vs. ka hopena hope o kēlā me kēia ʻāina:

Hoʻohālikelike hope ma waena o nā hopena o #Eurovision a me nā mea o kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike:

✅21/25 mau ʻāina i hoʻopau i kahi kūlana wānana me>5%
3/25 mau ʻāina () pau i kahi kūlana wānana ma waena o 1%-5%
1/25 mau ʻāina () pau i kahi kūlana wānana me <1% https://t.co/6Ae34169Te pic.twitter.com/RD1PBlMZCQ

— Datamania.es (@excel_adicto) E 15, 2022

No ka hihia o España, ka mea i pau i ka 3 ma ka Grand Final, kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike i wānana me a 70% loaʻa wale e hoʻopau maoli mākou ma waena o ka 3 a me ka 8. Eia kekahi, ua hāʻawi ʻia a 97% o nā koho e lilo i waena o nā Nā kūlana kiʻekiʻe 10.

Kūlana 5️⃣:
España

✅Ma waena o ke kūlana 3 a me 8
Nā helu 316#Eurovision #Chanelazo pic.twitter.com/bPRGm4dMnB

— Datamania.es (@excel_adicto) E 13, 2022

Inā mākou e hoʻohana i kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike no nā paʻi mai 2015, ʻo ia nā hopena wānana o España hoʻohālikelike ʻia i kā mākou hopena hope:

Inā makemake ʻoe i ka ʻatikala hiki iā ʻoe ke ʻike i ka ʻike hou aku ma Datamania.es