Alakaʻi no ka loiloi Metroscopia, GAD3, CIS a i ʻole Demoscopia Servicios.

E noʻonoʻo kākou i ke ʻano ʻelua ʻaoʻao vs multiparty o na anaana like ole i hoopukaia. No kēia, lawe mākou i nā mea hou loa i paʻi ʻia e kēlā me kēia hui ma Dekemaba 3, a Hoʻohālikelike mākou i ka pākēneka a lākou e hāʻawi ai i kēlā me kēia o nā ʻaoʻao nui ʻelima me nā hopena maoli o nā koho balota i hala, ʻo ia o 2011*. Loaʻa iā mākou nā hōʻailona penei:

ʻO ka mea i manaʻo nui ʻia ʻo ia nā awelika noiʻi maikaʻi. No ka poe koho balota hookahi, ʻaneʻane hōʻike maopopo ʻia nā manaʻo kūwaho: kekahi e pili ana i ka ʻōnaehana ʻelua ʻaoʻao a ʻo nā mea ʻē aʻe e pili ana i ka "pūnaewele ʻehā". ʻAʻole liʻiliʻi nā ʻokoʻa, a ʻo ia hoʻi ʻOkoʻa loa kā lākou meaʻai. ʻAʻole ʻike ʻia kēia mau ʻokoʻa ma ka noiʻi hope loa i paʻi ʻia, akā aia ma nā mea i hoʻokuʻu mua ʻia e kēlā me kēia hale.

Ke paʻi ʻia nā noiʻi hou i nā lā e hiki mai ana, e loaʻa iā mākou kahi alakaʻi hilinaʻi kūpono ma kēia pakuhi: GAD3, NC Hōʻike a i ʻole Invymark, hiki paha hoʻonui i ke kākoʻo o PP a/a i ʻole PSOE a me ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana iā Ciudadanos a / a i ʻole Podemos. Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, inā mākou e alo me kekahi o Metroscopy, Logic Simple a i ʻole SigmaDos, e hiki mai ana i ole ia.

ʻO ka pollster i manaʻo nui ʻia ʻo nā lawelawe Demoscopy: hiki iā mākou ke manaʻo e hōʻike maikaʻi kā lākou ʻikepili i ka awelika o nā mea ʻē aʻe. Hāʻawi pū ka CIS i nā hopena kūpono, ʻoiai hāʻawi ia i ka manaʻo i ʻike ʻole ʻia ma kēia pakuhi: hāʻawi ia i ka mea nui i ka PP ma mua o ka PSOE.

He aha ke ʻano o kēia mau ʻokoʻa? ʻAʻole lākou i manaʻo ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kekahi mau noiʻi ma mua o nā mea ʻē aʻe. ʻAʻole pono nā ʻokoʻa ma muli o ka manipulation a i ʻole ka hana ʻino. Pono paha lākou i nā meaʻai kūpono kūpono. ʻAʻole paha. E hoʻoholo kēlā me kēia kanaka i kā lākou manaʻo.

Akā ʻo ka mea nui no ka 20-D e hiki mai ana he pilikia hou aʻe e hiki iā mākou ke hōʻoia i ka lā koho: Ke hoʻohana nei nā poʻe koho a pau i nā meaʻai haʻahaʻa, ma ka nui a emi mai paha, a me na mea a pau ma ka aoao hookahi.

I kēlā hihia, ka hopena koho maoli hiki nō ke lawe iā mākou aiʻole he ka manaʻo bipartisanship ikaika, a i ʻole kekahi mea like me a hoʻopaʻa ma waena o ʻehā. ʻAʻole hiki iā mākou ke hōʻole i ka hiki ke hiki mai kēia. Ma ke koho balota ʻo Catalan, no ka laʻana, ʻo Metroscopia, nona nā wānana i ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ma mua o ke koena, ʻo ia ka mea i pololei loa. I nā manawa ʻē aʻe naʻe, ua hāʻule loa. He nui ka degere o ka maopopo ole.

Akā ma ka liʻiliʻi loa i kēlā me kēia manawa a mākou e ʻike ai i kahi noiʻi hou, hiki iā mākou ke hele i kēia pakuhi e ʻike i ka mea e manaʻo ai me kāna mau ʻano.

GAD3

Moscow

Metroscopy

----

@josesalver

-* Index= 100-(ka huina o ka hoʻololi ʻokoʻa ma waena o nā hopena i wānana ʻia e kēlā me kēia noiʻi no kēlā me kēia o nā ʻaoʻao nui ʻelima a me nā hopena i loaʻa ma 2011)