ʻO ka ʻae ʻana o ka EU, ma ka palena kiʻekiʻe. ʻO Trump, ma ka liʻiliʻi loa

ʻElua o nā hanana kaulana loa o ka makahiki i hala, ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ʻo ka hoʻoholo o ka poʻe Pelekania e haʻalele i ka EU, a ma kekahi, ke koho ʻana iā Donald Trump i pelekikena o ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa.

Mai kona koho ʻia ʻana, ua emi wale ka manaʻo o ka poʻe ʻAmelika i ko lākou pelekikena.

Ua hoʻokokoke ke koena ʻupena i nā manawa he iwakālua helu ʻino, ʻoiai ua kūpaʻa ʻo ia no hoʻokahi mahina i kēia manawa a ʻaʻohe hōʻemi hou i hoʻopaʻa ʻia.

Inā mākou e nānā i ka hōʻaiʻē i loaʻa i nā pelekikena ʻē aʻe i kēia manawa i kā lākou kauoha a hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka mea o kēia manawa, eia ka hopena:

Wahi a FiveThirtyEight data, ʻo Trump ka pelekikena kaulana ʻole i nā makahiki i hala iho nei, e like me Gerald Ford a me nā hoʻomaka pōʻino o Bill Clinton.

Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke poina iā Trump e hoʻomau i ke kākoʻo o nā ʻāpana koʻikoʻi, me ka nui o ke kaumaha o ke keʻokeʻo, ke kāne kāne a me nā mokuʻāina waena o ka ʻāina. ʻO nā kahakai, ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, kūʻē loa i ka pelekikena, koe wale nō ke kahawai ʻo Mexico.

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ʻO ka European Union, he mea haʻalulu nui ʻo Brexit, me ka nui o ka wānana i ka plummet i kāna hōʻaiʻē ma waena o nā kamaʻāina. He ʻumikumamākolu mahina ma hope mai, ʻo ka manaʻo o ka poʻe ʻEulopa e pili ana i ka EU penei:

Ma hope o ka pōʻino hope loa, me ka emi ʻana o ke kākoʻo no ka EU (ma Farani, no ka laʻana, ua hāʻule ma lalo o 40%), ua ʻike ʻia nā mahina i hala aku nei i ka hānau hou ʻana o ke kākoʻo no ka hui, ʻoiai nā ʻaoʻao o nā hoa paio kūpono loa i nalowale i nā kūlana a ʻaʻole i hoʻokō i kā lākou mau pahuhopu koho.

ʻO ka mea kupanaha, loaʻa i nā hui ʻEulopa ma nā ʻāina he nui ko lākou pae maikaʻi loa mai 2010.

Ma Sepania, ʻo ia ka ʻāina ʻoi loa o ʻEulopa ma mua o ka hiki ʻana mai o ka pilikia nui, aia kahi hāʻule nui i ka wā i hāʻule ai i loko o ke kaumaha. Eia naʻe, i kēia manawa ua loaʻa hou ka EU i ke kākoʻo kaiaulu ma luna o 60%. ʻO Helene wale nō, ʻaʻole hiki ke puka i waho o kāna mau pilikia, i kēia manawa ka manaʻo maikaʻi ʻole o ka Union.