ʻO ka Pelekikena ʻAmelika, ʻo Donald Trump, e noho mau ana ka pelekikena kaulana ʻole no kona heluna kanaka i nā makahiki i hala iho nei,ma ka liʻiliʻi loa mai ka loaʻa ʻana o nā moʻolelo systematic, e hoʻomaka ana me Harry S. Truman (1945-53), me ka exceptions de ʻO Ronald Reagan (1981-1989) a me ʻO Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), i kēia manawa i loaʻa i nā pae kākoʻo ʻoi aku ka haʻahaʻa ma mua o ko ka pelekikena o kēia manawa.
Hāʻawi nā hui kūikawā āpau i nā uku like. ʻo kahi laʻana, Elima kanakolukumamawalu hāʻawi iā ia i kēia manawa a 42,7% manaʻo maikaʻi, hoʻohālikelike ʻia me 53,0% kūʻē. No kona ʻāpana, Real Mea kālai'āina hāʻawi iā ia a 41,3% kākoʻo a me 54,4% hōʻole, no ke koena maikaʻi ʻole o -13,1%.
Akā inā no kekahi mea ʻano ʻo ka helu kaulana o ka pelekikena o kēia manawa no kona kūpaʻa. I loko o nā makahiki ʻelua o kona noho pelekikena, ʻaʻole i hōʻea ma mua o 44% kākoʻo kaulana, akā ʻaʻole i emi iki ma lalo o 38%. Hōʻike kēia ʻoiaʻiʻo Paa loa ke kahua kaulana o ka peresidena, aneane kūʻokoʻa i kāna mau hana a i ʻole nā hoʻoholo politika, a ua hoʻokumu ʻia ma ke kākoʻo (a hōʻole paha) o kona ʻano ma mua o kāna hoʻokele pelekikena ʻoiaʻiʻo.
La hoʻohālikelike e hana ana ʻo FiveThirtyEight me nā pelekikena hou a pau i haʻalele iā Trump i kahi kūlana paʻakikī, akā, hāʻawi pū ia i ka manaʻolana, no ka mea, ʻo kona kūlana, ʻoiai ʻino, ʻaʻole ia he manaʻo, a no ka mea i mua o nā piʻi a me nā haʻahaʻa i loaʻa i ka hōʻaiʻē o nā mea ʻē aʻe he nui ma hope o ka hoʻoholo ʻana i nā hoʻoholo paʻakikī a i ʻole ma muli o nā hanana pōʻino. Ua ʻike ʻole ʻo Trump i ka hoʻohewa ʻana (a me nā kūleʻa pū kekahi): ʻaʻole loli wale kāna loiloi holoʻokoʻa.
ʻO nā pelekikena ʻeiwa i hala iho nei, ʻelima mau papa helu e like me kāna i kēia manawa. Ua hoʻokō lākou i ke koho hou ʻana ma hope o kā lākou mau makahiki ʻehā? ʻO Gerald Ford lāua ʻo Jimmy Carter, ʻaʻole, akā ʻo Ronald Reagan, ʻo Bill Clinton a me Barack Obama ʻae.
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