New Hampshire: Sanders surprises Biden. Ntau tus neeg sib tw ntawm lub verge ntawm 15%

La haiv neeg democrat mus ntsib Donald Trump hauv Asmeskas kev xaiv tsa thawj tswj hwm lub Kaum Ib Hlis, tom qab lub hlis ntawm kev sib cav thiab nrhiav nyiaj txiag, tam sim no tau mus txog nws lub sijhawm txiav txim siab.

El thawj lub xeev leej twg yuav txiav txim siab seb tus neeg sawv cev twg yuav xa mus rau Democratic convention nyob rau lub Xya Hli yuav yog Iowa, leej twg pov npav rau hnub Monday tom ntej. Lub sijhawm tam sim no, kev sib ntaus sib tua tau tsom mus rau Sanders thiab Biden, uas zoo li tau lees paub qhov tsawg kawg nkaus ntawm 15% kev txhawb nqa, tsim nyog kom tau txais cov neeg sawv cev, thaum lwm tus neeg sib tw nyob ntawm qhov txwv kom tau txais lawv.

Qhov thib ob yog New Hampshire, uas yuav ua kev zoo siab nws cov thawj coj ib lub lim tiam tom qab, uas yog, tus 11 rau Lub Ob Hlis. New Hampshire tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb tsawg dua li Iowa, vim tias nws tsuas yog faib 24 tus neeg sawv cev ntawm tag nrho yuav luag 4.000. Tab sis ua ib qho ntawm thawj zaug tau pov ntawv tawm suab, nws qhov tseem ceeb tau nthuav dav, vim tias Nws yuav cuam tshuam tag nrho cov uas yuav tuav tom qab.

Kev hloov pauv hauv ob lub lis piam dhau los ntawm lub xeev thib ob no zoo ib yam li Iowa:

Sanders tab tom ua thawj coj, thaum Biden, Buttigieg thiab Warren muaj neeg coob coob ua ke hauv qhov chaw thib ob hypothetical.

Qhov no tuaj yeem cuam tshuam li cas rau kev xaiv tsa ntawm cov neeg sawv cev rau lub rooj sib tham Democratic thaum Lub Xya Hli?

Txoj haujlwm ntawm delegates nyob rau lub sijhawm no yuav raug txo kom ob tug neeg sib tw, Sanders thiab Biden thiab, nws tuaj yeem yog ib qho xwb: Bernie Sanders. Nws ua tau li cas? Txhawm rau nkag mus rau kev faib tawm koj yuav tsum tau, yam tsawg kawg ib 15% kev txhawb nqa. Sanders muaj ntau (rau lub sijhawm), tab sis Biden, thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog Buttigieg thiab Warren, yog nyob rau hauv lub verge (los yog hauv qab) ntawm daim duab ntawd. Biden tab tom pib qhia cov tsos mob ntawm kev ntxhov siab, thiab nag hmo nws tau hinted, hauv kev sim kom rov ua haujlwm tawm tsam Sanders, uas nws tuaj yeem suav nrog Michelle Obama ua tus lwm thawj hauv nws qhov kev xaiv tsa.

Qhov sib npaug ntawm cov neeg sib tw yog ntau dua hauv kev sib tw dhau los, thiab kev seev cev me me ntawm 1% tuaj yeem hloov pauv (ntau) kev faib cov neeg sawv cev. Iowa thiab New Hampshire caucuses yog qhov pib ntawm kev sib tw ntev uas yuav coj peb mus txog Lub Xya Hli, uas Lub hom phiaj yog kom ua tiav yam tsawg kawg 1.990 tus neeg sawv cev, ib daim duab uas, niaj hnub no, tsis muaj leej twg ntawm cov neeg sib tw yuav ua tiav, raws li kev kwv yees uas twb muaj lawm rau lub teb chaws tag nrho.

Thaum kawg, nws yuav tsum raug sau tseg tias kev xaiv tsa rau thawj zaug hauv Tebchaws Meskas yog raug rau a kev tsis meej pem zoo, thiab variation margins ntawm 10% los yog ntau tshaj ntawm ib daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas thiab lwm, txawm nqa tawm nyob rau tib lub sij hawm, tsis yog txawv. Piv txwv li, nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm New Hampshire, thiab tsuas yog rau cov uas tau ua nyob rau hauv lub lim tiam dhau los, cov margins yog raws li nram no:

• Sanders: 16% rau 29%
• Biden: 14% rau 22%
• Buttigieg: 10% rau 17%
• Warren: 10% rau 16%