Teb Chaws Asmeskas: raws li Nate Silver lub Tsev Neeg Sawv Cev tuaj yeem yog Democratic ua ntej xyoo kawg

Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 6, tus thawj tswj hwm Donald Trump ua si nws thawj thawj koom ruam kev xaiv tsa tom qab nws ceeb yeej nyob rau hauv kev xaiv tsa nom tswv yuav luag ob xyoos dhau los.

Precisely txhua txhua ob xyoos, ib feem peb ntawm Senate thiab tag nrho lub Tsev Neeg Sawv Cev raug txuas ntxiv. Lub sijhawm tam sim no, Trump muaj Republican feem ntau ntawm 51 tus neeg sawv cev ywj pheej piv rau 47 Democrats, thiab ob tus neeg sawv cev tsis koom nrog, tab sis txhua yam tuaj yeem hloov pauv hauv ob peb lub hlis. Hauv Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev, Republican qhov zoo dua yog qhov dav dua, 241 txog 194.

Txawm li cas los, Qhov twg Trump muaj nws nyuaj tshaj plaws tsis yog hauv Senate, tab sis hauv Lub tsev. Kev rov ua dua tshiab ntawm Senate yog ib feem, nws cuam tshuam tsuas yog ib feem peb ntawm nws cov tswv cuab, thiab feem ntau ntawm cov neeg tawm mus yog Democrats, yog li, zoo li nws yog ATP kev ntaus pob tesniv, leej twg muaj qhov zoo tshaj plaws yav dhau los tiv thaiv feem ntau muaj dab tsi. poob Thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 6, 23 Democratic senators tawm ntawm lawv lub rooj zaum piv rau 10 Republicans nkaus xwb. Txhawm rau yeej feem ntau, Democrats yuav tsum yeej tsawg kawg 26 ntawm 33 rooj zaum hauv kev hais plaub, ib qho nyuaj heev.

Nws tuaj yeem yooj yim dua rau Democrats los tswj lub Tsev Neeg Sawv Cev, vim nws yog lig renewed, thiab nws rooj zaum Lawv tau muab faib ua ntau lub chaw pov npav me me uas cov kev xaiv tsa muab rau lawv feem ntau. Raws li Nate Silver qhov kev kwv yees, daim ntawv qhia yuav zoo li no (liab Republicans, xiav Democrats):

Qhov no txhais tau hais tias cov Democrats yuav muaj, qhov tseeb, 189 lub rooj zaum hauv chav, piv rau 134 rau Republicans. Raws li Silver, yuav muaj 74.6% lub caij nyoog uas Democrats yuav yeej feem coob, piv rau 25.4% tawm tsam nws. Coincidentally, nws yog Qhov tshwm sim zoo ib yam li ib qho Silver muab rau Hillary Clinton mus txog lub Tsev Dawb ua ntej nws poob.

Nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd, Nyiaj rov hais dua hais tias ib qho tseem ceeb heev tsis tau hais txog qhov tseeb, tab sis Nws cov lus piav qhia tsis tau mloog, thiab nws feem ntau txhais tau tias "tsis ncaj ncees lawm" hauv nws qhov kev twv ua ntej (txawm tias lwm tus "tsis ncaj ncees lawm" ntau dua, tsis muaj qhov tsis ntseeg, los ntawm kev muab Trump txawm tias tsawg dua ntawm kev yeej).

Tias yog vim li cas lub sij hawm no cov xov xwm tsis txhob hais txog qhov feem pua ​​("lawv tsis to taub lawv," hais tias Silver, "lawv tsis to taub lawv"), thiab sim ua lwm txoj hauv kev: cov feem. Democrats yuav yeej Pawg Neeg Sawv Cev 3 tawm ntawm 4 zaug, lRepublicans, tsuas yog ib ntawm plaub. Cov lej loj, cov lej puag ncig, kom nkag siab yooj yim dua ... Ntxiv rau, nws taw qhia tias hauv 80% ntawm cov xwm txheej, qhov tshwm sim yuav ze heev, txawm hais tias muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau Democratic feem ntau.

Txawm tias tag nrho cov kev ceeb toom no, hauv kev muaj tiag, nyiaj tuav cov qauv kev kwv yees tib yam uas nws tau siv hauv 2016 thiab nws pom nws zoo li thaum ntawd cov Democrats yuav yeej. Tab sis nws tau kawm nws zaj lus qhia: tib neeg feem ntau, thaum nyeem cov ntawv xov xwm, tsis paub qhov txawv ntawm qhov xwm txheej "tseem ceeb" thiab lwm qhov "tseem ceeb", yog li cov lus xaus yuav tsum tau tsim nrog kev ceev faj ntxiv, txawm tias cov ntaub ntawv zoo ib yam. Cov ntaub ntawv tsis muaj teeb meem ntau npaum li txoj kev nthuav tawm. Ua raws li qhov no rau hauv tus account, tej zaum Silver tsis nyiam cov xov xwm uas peb tau xaiv rau qhov kev nkag no ntau dhau, tab sis, txawm tias nws to taub lossis tsis, nws tseem yog qhov txiav tawm los ntawm kev xaiv tsa niaj hnub no.

Txij tam sim no mus txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 6 peb tseem yuav soj ntsuam qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm… qhov tshwm sim (lossis cov feem, lossis txawm tias Silver titles nws qhov kev kwv yees txij li tam sim no). LCov neeg Amelikas niaj hnub muaj feem cuam tshuam ntau. Nws yuav yog thawj zaug ntawm kev xaiv tsa thawj tswj hwm xyoo 2020.