Brexit: negosiasi diwiwiti dina iki.

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Pungkasan Juli, kabeh Eropa ngempet ambegan sajrone dina pemungutan suara sing bersejarah ing Inggris, ing ngendi, ing referendum, wargane mutusake manawa dheweke pengin terus dadi anggota Uni Eropa.

Senajan kamenangan kanggo Remain (tetep panyengkuyung) sadurunge dijupuk kanggo diwenehake, surprise pungkasanipun muncul lan ing electomania kita nyiarake sampeyan saka London kamenangan sing ora dikarepke Ninggalake. Inggris wis mutusake kanggo ninggalake EU.

Nanging apa sing katon minangka keputusan penting kanthi luwih akeh implikasi ing kabijakan manca tinimbang kabijakan domestik, wis dadi sirah nyata kanggo politik nasional ing UK, meksa Theresa May nelpon kanggo pemilihan anyar kanggo nyoba dhukungan kanggo partai.

Saiki, saka wilayah sing milih mayoritas anggota ing EU, dheweke njaluk diidini nindakake konsultasi warga kanggo kamardikan, amarga Kontinuitas ing Inggris bakal mbutuhake ninggalake wilayah Eropa umum ing taun 2019.

Kita bakal nganalisa data sing digawe jajak pendapat ing dina kasebut lan ndeleng kepiye napsirake, uga akibat ing politik internal sing ditindakake, lan kepiye carane Ana divisi sing jelas ing antarane wilayah sing bisa dadi ora bisa disambungake.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Asil sakabèhé

asil statewide  (utawa kumpulan negara sing mbentuk Britania Raya: Skotlandia, Inggris, Wales, Irlandia Lor lan wilayah Inggris kayata Gibraltar) yaiku:

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Skotlandia

Asil ing kasus Skotlandia  utamané pinunjul. Ayo kita ngelingi sing taun lan setengah sadurungé Skotlandia mutusaké ing referendum terus dadi kagungane Inggris amarga wedi yen Skotlandia merdika kudu ninggalake EU.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_52″ value=”38″ border_css=”border-width:1px;border-style:#f0borderf0f0; : solid;border-radius:20px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_48″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”left” title=”Leave” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”padding-top:10px;” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ value_number=”38″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:10px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#f91800||rgba(249,77,54,0.58)||0;100||180||linear” progress_border_divider=”true” progress_border_css=”border-top:0px; tengen: 0px;border-bottom:0px;worder-left:0px;border-style:solid;border-radius:20px;”][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_52″ value=”62″ border_css=”border-width:1px ;werna-wates:#f0f0f0;gaya-wates:padat;radius-wates:20px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_48″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”left” title=”Remain” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”padding-top:10px;” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ value_number=”62″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:10px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#009327||rgba(35,163,48,0.58)||0;100||180||linear” progress_border_divider=”true” progress_border_css=”border-top:0px; 0px;wates-ngisor:0px;wates-kiwa:0px;gaya-wates:padat;radius-wates:20px;”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Wales

Ing Wales  Sentimen kamardikan ora kaya ing negara-negara Inggris liyane, iki minangka asil saka negara iki ing referendum:

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Inggris

Ing Inggris  Ana kedadeyan sing aneh, nalika ibukutha, London, milih massively kanggo Tetep, wilayah liyane milih ninggalake kanthi cara sing kuat, entuk asil iki: ”border-width:52px;border-color:#f53f1f0;border-style:solid;border-radius:0px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”left” title=”Leave” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”padding-top:20px;” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_48″ value_number=”10″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:36px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#f53.4||rgba(10)||91800;249,77,54,0.58||0||linear” progress_border_divider=”true” progress_border_css=”border-top:100px; tengen: 180px;wewatesan-ngisor:0px;wates-kiwa:0px;gaya-wates: padhet;border-radius:0px;”][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_0″ value=”20″ border_css=”border-width:52px ;werna-wates:#f47f1f0;gaya-wates:padat;radius-wates:0px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_0″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”left” title=”Remain” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”padding-top:20px;” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_48″ value_number=”10″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:36px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#46.6||rgba(10)||009327;35,163,48,0.58||0||linear” progress_border_divider=”true” progress_border_css=”border-top:100px; 180px;wates-ngisor:0px;wates-kiwa:0px;gaya-wates:padat;radius-wates:0px;”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Irlandia Lor

Irlandia Lor  Wis pirang-pirang dekade dadi negara sing politik internal dadi tong bubuk sing sejatine lan untunge perjuangan bersenjata saiki wis ditinggal. Iki asile:[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_52″ value=”44″ border_css=”border-width:1px;border-color:#f0f0f0f20f ;gaya-wates: padet;radius-wates: 48px;" title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_10″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”left” title=”Leave” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”padding-top:36px;” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_44.2″ value_number=”10″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:91800px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#f249,77,54,0.58||rgba(0)||100;180||0||linear” progress_border_divider=”true” progress_border_css=”border-top:0px; tengen: 0px;wewatesan-ngisor:0px;wates-kiwa:20px;gaya-wates: padhet;border-radius:52px;”][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_56″ value=”1″ border_css=”border-width:0px ;werna-wates:#f0f0f20;gaya-wates:padat;radius-wates:48px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_10″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”left” title=”Remain” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”padding-top:36px;” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_55.8″ value_number=”10″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:009327px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#35,163,48,0.58||rgba(0)||100;180||0||linear” progress_border_divider=”true” progress_border_css=”border-top:0px; 0px;wates-ngisor:0px;wates-kiwa:20px;gaya-wates:padat;radius-wates:XNUMXpx;”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Gibraltar

Pedunung ing tlatah Inggris Gibraltar  Padha banget cetha sing padha wanted kanggo tetep ing EU, lagi nuduhake dening arep jajak pendapat lan voting massal kanggo Tetep:[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_52″ value=”4″ border_css=”border-width:1px;border-style:#f0f0f0; : solid;border-radius:20px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_48″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”left” title=”Leave” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”padding-top:10px;” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ value_number=”4.1″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:10px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#f91800||rgba(249,77,54,0.58)||0;100||180||linear” progress_border_divider=”true” progress_border_css=”border-top:0px; tengen: 0px;wewatesan-ngisor:0px;wates-kiwa:0px;gaya-wates: padhet;border-radius:20px;”][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_52″ value=”96″ border_css=”border-width:1px ;werna-wates:#f0f0f0;gaya-wates:padat;radius-wates:20px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_48″ title_font_transform=”none” title_font_align=”left” title=”Remain” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”padding-top:10px;” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ value_number=”95.9″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:10px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#009327||rgba(35,163,48,0.58)||0;100||180||linear” progress_border_divider=”true” progress_border_css=”border-top:0px; 0px;wates-ngisor:0px;wates-kiwa:0px;gaya-wates:padat;radius-wates:20px;”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Kesenjangan pemilihan

Yen kita njupuk asil pitakonan ing peta, iku gampang kanggo ndeleng fraktur antarane panyengkuyung lan mungsuh saka ninggalake EU. Ninggalake kutha London aside, bebener iku werna cetha nggambarake divisi antarane Skotlandia lan Irlandia Lor karo Inggris lan Wales.

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Skotlandia, referendum Kamardikan anyar?

Ing Skotlandia padha duwe dilema gedhe, lan sing kurang saka rong taun kepungkur padha milih ing referendum kanggo tetep ing UK ing kampanye kang Sumbu tengah yaiku rasa wedi yen kudu ninggalake EU yen padha milih lunga.

Sawetara perusahaan sing adhedhasar ing negara kasebut nerbitake tujuane menyang Inggris yen Skotlandia milih kamardikan, lan pungkasane. Asil konsultasi ndhukung permanen ing Inggris lan, mulane, ing Eropah.

Iki minangka asil referendum kamardikan Skotlandia: title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_34″ title_font_color=”#ffffff” title_font_transform=”uppercase” title_font_align=”left” title=”Ora” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”px2padding:pxtompadding=”55px3padding-top:-bottompadding”; 3px;padding-kiwa:3px;” value_sticky=”true” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_50″ value_font_color=”#ffffff” value_number=”36″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:15px;padding-right:15px;-padding-right:15px; : 25px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#f36d55,3||#ef15f||25;15||15||linear” progress_border_css=”border-radius:90px;”][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_04″layout=” =”625″ background_color=”#f0f100f180″ border_css=”border-radius:50px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_34″ title_font_color=”#ffffff” title_font_transform=”uppercase” title_font_align=”left” title=”Ya” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”px2padding:px-bottompadding=”45px3:padding-bottom;3. 3px;padding-kiwa:50px;” value_sticky=”true” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ value_font_color=”#ffffff” value_number=”15″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:15px;padding-right:15px;-padding-right:25px; : 36px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#44,7e15||#25ab15||15;039||15||linear” progress_border_css=”border-radius:4px;”][vc_column_text]Wong Skotlandia cetha, padha duwe rasa identitas sing kuwat nanging perasaane sing pro-Eropa malah luwih kuwat, lan padha milih ing rong konsultasi ing telung taun pungkasan kanggo pilihan sing bakal entail isih anggota EU.

Nanging iki ora ateges dheweke ora nuntut otonomi liyane, lan ing pemilihan umum pungkasan ing Inggris, Skotlandia dadi meh kabeh ing tangan SNP MPs, partai nasionalis Skotlandia, uga amarga krisis jero sing dialami Buruh (Skotlandia sacara tradisional minangka salah sawijining fiefdom).

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Nyengsemaken yen SNP entuk 90% kursi nalika setahun sadurunge dheweke kalah ing taruhan kanggo Ya kanggo Kamardikan ing referendum Skotlandia, lan luwih-luwih yen kita nganalisa évolusi sajarah voting ing Skotlandia kanggo pemilihan Inggrisapa lan Parlemen Westminster.

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Lan yen ora cukup, ing 2016 ana pemilihan kanggo Parlemen Skotlandia, sing dikonfirmasi maneh. kekuatan SNP, sing saiki mrentah Skotlandia.

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Kanthi data kasebut, SNP nyatakake rembugan kamardikan anyar kanggo ndeleng yen Skotlandia pengin tetep ing UK yen tegese ninggalake EU.

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Irlandia Lor, penyatuan karo Irlandia liyane?

Kasus Irlandia Lor ora nggumunake kaya Skotlandia, sanajan nyatane yen ing negara iki mesthi ana panjaluk separatis sing nyengkuyung penyatuan karo Irlandia liyane, ana uga perasaan Inggris sing kuwat ing bagean saka negara kasebut. populasi.

Ing pungkasan jajak pendapat ditindakake ing taun 2009 ing ngendi pedunung Irlandia Lor ditakoni apa sing luwih disenengi kanggo kedadeyan ing negarane, apa bakal terus dadi bagéan saka Inggris utawa nyawiji karo Republik Irlandia, iki asile:[/vc_column_text][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_34″ layout=”style_2″ value=”69″ background_color=”#f3f3f3″ border_css=”border-radius:50px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ title_font_color=”#ffffff” title_font_transform=”huruf besar” title_font_align=”left” title=”Inggris” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”px15padding:-bottompadding=15px15:padding-bottom;25. 36px;padding-kiwa:69px;” value_sticky=”true” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#ffffff” value_number=”25″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:15px;padding-right:15px;padding-right:9160px;padding-right:3437px;padding-tengen:5px; : 0px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#f100e||#180e50||34;2||21||linear” progress_border_css=”border-radius:3px;”][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_3″layout=”style_preset_3″ =”50″ background_color=”#f36f15f15″ border_css=”border-radius:15px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_25″ title_font_color=”#ffffff” title_font_transform=”uppercase” title_font_align=”left” title=”Irlandia” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_csss=”right_padding_csss=”padding-padding_csss=”right_padding_csss=”padding:36px-padding; 21px;padding-kiwa:15px;” value_sticky=”true” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_25″ value_font_color=”#ffffff”value_number=”15″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:15px;padding-right:81px;padding-right:34px;padding-right:0px;padding-right:83px;padding-right:0px : 100px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#180d50e||#e34d2a||10;3||3||linear” progress_border_css=”border-radius:3px;”][mpc_progress preset=”nilai gaya mpc_preset_50″ =”36″ background_color=”#f15f15f15″ border_css=”border-radius:25px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ title_font_color=”#ffffff” title_font_transform=”uppercase” title_font_align=”left” title=”NS/NC” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=10:padding-padding-tengen; ngisor:15px;padding-kiwa:25px;" value_sticky=”true” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#ffffff”value_number=”15″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:888888px;padding-right:3px;padding-right:3px;padding-right:3px;padding-right:0px; : 100px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#180||#f50fXNUMXfXNUMX||XNUMX;XNUMX||XNUMX||linear” progress_border_css=”border-radius:XNUMXpx;”][vc_column_text]Miturut data iki, kita bisa mikir yen mayoritas ing Irlandia Lor kalebu Protestan Ulster lan Katolik republik minangka minoritas, nanging adoh saka kasunyatan, Ing taun anyar Sinn Féin, partai pro-unifikasi sing dipimpin dening putri saka mantan IRA, wis nambah support banget nganti tekan ikatan teknis ing Pemilu 2016.

[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Sawetara minggu kepungkur, Sinn Féin kanthi umum njaluk Parlemen Inggris supaya ngidini dheweke nganakake referendum kanggo mutusake yen dheweke pengin terus dadi bagean saka Inggris ing skenario iki metu saka EU.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Gibraltar, njaba EU?

Kasus Gibraltar, mesthi, kontroversial, utamane nalika debat langgeng babagan kedaulatan watu kasebut. Llanitos milih kanthi kuat kanggo tetep ing EU, nanging keputusane kanca-kanca liyane kanggo ninggalake dheweke nuntun dheweke menyang kahanan sing angel.

Yen dheweke pengin tetep dadi bagian saka Uni Eropa, dheweke kudu rembugan karo Uni nanging Hak veto Spanyol Ing masalah iki, bisa meksa dheweke ngliwati kedaulatan bebarengan utawa, ing kasus apa wae, njagong lan ngobrol karo Pamrentah Spanyol.

Nanging Gibraltarians cetha, padha ora pengin dadi Spanyol, lan iki wis diterangake ing konsultasi sing ditindakake babagan topik iki, sing pungkasan ditindakake ing taun 2002 ing ngendi 98% ditolak dadi basa Spanyol.[/vc_column_text][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_34″ layout=”style_2″ value =” 98″ background_color=”#f3f3f3″ border_css=”border-radius:50px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ title_font_color=”#ffffff” title_font_transform=”uppercase” title_font_align=”left” title=”Ora” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”px15padding:pxtompadding=”15px15padding-top:-bottompadding”; 25px;padding-kiwa:36px;” value_sticky=”true” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_98,5″ value_font_color=”#ffffff” value_number=”15″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:25px;padding-right:15px;-padding-right:15px; : 90px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#f04d625||#ef0f||100;180||50||linear” progress_border_css=”border-radius:34px;”][mpc_progress preset=”mpc_preset_2″layout=” =”1″ background_color=”#f3f3f3″ border_css=”border-radius:50px;” title_font_preset=”mpc_preset_36″ title_font_color=”#ffffff” title_font_transform=”uppercase” title_font_align=”left” title=”Ya” title_padding_divider=”true” title_padding_css=”px15padding:px-bottompadding=”15px15:padding-bottom;25. 36px;padding-kiwa:1,03px;” value_sticky=”true” value_font_preset=”mpc_preset_15″ value_font_color=”#ffffff” value_number=”25″ value_padding_divider=”true” value_padding_css=”padding-top:15px;padding-right:15px;-padding-right:039px; : 15px;” progress_background_type=”gradient” progress_background_gradient=”#4e251||#0ab100||180;50||XNUMX||linear” progress_border_css=”border-radius:XNUMXpx;”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_colum ][vc_column_text]

UK, apa ora ana bali?

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Satemene ora bakal gampang pas kabeh potongan iki bebarengan tanpa kelangan soko ing dalan, May ngadhepi tantangan gedhe, lan malah luwih sawise pemilihan umum kang support suda lan mung karo pakta karo unionists saka Irlandia Lor bisa terus mrentah, lan iku ora dadi luwih amarga rembugan metu saka Inggris saka Eropah, nanging amarga proses rong taun iki ora uga entails luwih saka kemungkinan dismemberment ing kesatuan bangsa, soko sing yen ditindakake bakal nguji anggota Uni, sing yen ngakoni wilayah kasebut minangka anggota lengkap, bisa nyebabake gelombang kamardikan Eropah sing angel kanggo mungkasi.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]