Zvita 20: Tichave nechitatu dema swan?

Mangwanani e 11 March we2004 Kwakava nekurwisa kwemagandanga kwakachinja Spain. Musi wa14 pakaitwa sarudzo huru, uye kubva pakaputika zvitima zvaive pachena kuti vaizova nepesvedzero pane zvakabuda musarudzo. Uye mukomana vakanga vanayo. Kunyangwe zvaive nekuda kwemaitiro ehurumende panguva yemazuva matatu anotyisa, achiramba chero mukana wekuti ETA akanga asiri munyori; kungave neiyo ye "official opposition", inotungamirwa nePSOE, iyo mukati meawa maawa makumi manomwe nemaviri yakazvibvisa zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pachinzvimbo chehurumende; kungave nekuda kweiyo imwe inopikisa, iri mberi kuruboshwe, ipapo yakanyanya kurongeka kupfuura ikozvino, iyo yakabatana kuburikidza neiyo incipient social network ine nhevedzano yekuratidzira uye kuratidzira, kunyangwe pazuva rekufungisisa; Chokwadi ndechekuti kurwiswa uku kwakamiririra kusagadzikana kukuru kwati kwamboitika munhoroondo yedu yesarudzo. Makore gumi nerimwe gare gare ichiri kuyeukwa sokunge pane chimwe chinhu chiripo, uye inokweretesa iyo pachayo kududziro dzakasiyana-siyana, dzinenge dzinogara dzichifarira.

A black swan inowanzonzi chokwadi chimwe chete, hapana chakajairika, icho inovhiringidza nzira yakajairika yezviitiko. Shavi dema harisi shavishavi riri kubhururuka muAmazon: inzou inopinda munhandare yenhabvu mumakwikwi eChampions League.

Munhoroondo yedu yesarudzo kwagara kune zviitiko zverudzi urwu. Hazvina kukosha sezvakasuruvarisa 11-M, asi nguva dzose yakakodzera, ine pesvedzero pamhedzisiro yesarudzo.

Dzimwe nguva vane migumisiro yenguva refu. Muenzaniso wakanyanyisa waive uyo unorangarirwa "chiitiko" che Kukadzi 23 kubva ku1981. UCD yaSuárez yakatarisana ne yakaoma mamiriro, uye, mushure mekusiya basa kwemutungamiri wenyika, mapato ezvematongerwo enyika akatora mukana uyu kuedza kudzosera nyika kune yakapfuura. Iyo yaive yakanonoka swan nhema, nekuti yaive nemhedzisiro yekubatanidza avo vaive vasina kubatana, kusimbisa demokrasi, asi nekufamba kwenguva yakakurumidza kuparara kweUCD, uye. yakatsigira PSOE uye AP yakananga kune itsva-mapato system ine mhedzisiro ichiripo. Pana Gumiguru 28, 1982, shanje yakapedza basa rayo nekugadzira iyo PSOE yakawana huwandu hukuru hwakakwana munhoroondo yedu.

Pane dzimwe nguva, swans hadzina kunyanya kushamisa. Asi vagara varipo. Tichiri kurangarira migumisiro iyo kuonekwa kweterevhizheni kwakaitika mumazuva ekare, mu makumi manomwe nemakumi masere. Ipapo terevhizheni yaive zvese: Vateereri ve (vanenge) chete terevhizheni network vaiva gumi, gumi nemashanu, vanhu vane mamiriyoni makumi maviri, avo vakatarisa purogiramu imwe chete panguva imwe chete ... Mhedzisiro yaro yakanga yakaipisisa. Musarudzo idzodzo, "kupindira kwekupedzisira" kwevamiriri kwakakosha. Vanhu vese vaivaona. Vanhu vese vakazotaura nezvavo zuva raitevera. Nenzira iyi, Adolfo Suárez naFelipe González vakawana hukuru muna 1977 zvekuti hapana data yaigona kufanotaura vasati vaita sarudzo dzakajeka paterevhizheni mumazuva esarudzo dzisati dzaitwa. Saka Adolfo akarova Felipe musarudzo dza1979, apo zvinhu zvose zvaiita sezvinoratidza kuti zvaisazova nyore. Nenzira iyi, González akawana kukunda kwake muna 1982.

Zvadaro, nhaurirano dzesarudzo (kana kushaikwa kwemakakatanwa) dzakawana kukosha. Ndokusaka vamwe vavhoti, kunyanya avo vanotanga vaine mukana, vanowanzovatiza: ivo vatema swans umo vane zvakawanda zvekurasikirwa uye zvishoma zvekuwana.

In the sarudzo dzatiri kuzopemberera musi wa20 Zvita 2015, shavi mbiri nhema dzakatooneka, dzichikanganisa zvose. Kudanwa Catalonia uye Paris. Hatisati taziva kuti vachave nemigumisiro yei pavavhoti. Asi ivo pasina mubvunzo vachave nazvo: vanogara vanazvo, uye vanogara vachipenya mumazuva ekupedzisira emushandirapamwe, vachiunganidza chikamu chikuru chevasina kusarudzwa munzira imwechete.

Izvi ndizvo chimwe chinhu chisingagone kufanotaura zvakanaka, izvo muSpain zvinorambidzwawo nenyaya yekuti Hadzikwanise kuburitswa kana kwasara mazuva asingasviki matanhatu zvesarudzo. Pamazuva akakosha.

Kwasara inenge mwedzi kuti sarudzo dziitwe, uye zvimwe zvingangoramba zvichionekwa zverudzi urwu. Zvinoshamisa. Unexpected. Shando yechitatu. Inogona kuva yemhando ipi zvayo: semuenzaniso, mamwe mazwi asina kunaka emumiriri akaitwa panguva yakaipisisa; kana nyaya yehuori isina nguva yasara yekuita; nyaya ipi neipi inochemedza inounganidza vanhu, kana chimwe chinhu chatisingagoni kunyange kufungidzira iye zvino.

Ndivo vasingaonekwi. Kazhinji ndivo kiyi iyoyo inorerekera vhoti isina kusarudzwa mune imwe nzira. Uye ngatisakanganwe kuti vhoti yevasina kutongwa ndiyo chete chinhu chakakosha musarudzo.

@josesalver