Iyo ECB zvakare inoenda

Vadzidzi muyunivhesiti economics fakaroti nokukurumidza vanoziva kuti vaviri mitemo mikuru yehupfumi hweveruzhinji ndeyemari uye zvemari. Mumashoko akafara akachinjirwa kunguva dzatiri kurarama madziri: maitiro ekugadzirisa mari yeruzhinji uye zvekuita nemari.

Uye kana chimwe chinhu chiri pachena panguva ino, ndezvekuti nyika dzakaita seSpain kana Italy hadzina mari yakawanda, nechikwereti chakaunganidzwa chinodarika 100% yezvigadzirwa zvavo mugore rose, uye havagone kuita chero chinhu nemari. zvavasina. Saka imwe nzira chete kuparara kwehupfumi uko Unofanira kuuya mu 2020 Inonzi Europe. Nokuti Europe inogona kutipa kuyerera kwemari iyo pasina munhu aizotipa isu kana tikaenda toga, uye nokuti Europe ndiyo depositary ye euro uye mitemo yose uye zvikwereti zvinogona kubatanidzwa nazvo.

Kana chimwe chinhu akapotswa in the mwedzi yekutanga yedambudziko iri raive, chaizvo, kuEurope. Vatungamiri venyika imwe neimwe vakaenda ivo voga, vachibata kuratidzira (kunyanya avo vari kuchamhembe) kwekushandisa mukati, uye kuunza mhepo inokuvadza yekusafarira uye kutya remangwana. Zvichakadaro, misika yemasheya yakanga ichiparara, vamwe vachirasikirwa nechinopfuura chikamu chimwe muzvitatu cheukoshi hwavo, uye njodzi premium vakabva kunyika dzezasi kusimuka zvishoma nezvishoma.

Dzimwe nguva Takaita kunge takadzokera ku2008, uye kutambudzika kweaimbova purezidhendi Zapatero, izvo zvakazoguma zvatitungamirira, mugore iroro uye nevanotevera, kubhadhara mubereko we4, 5 kana kunyange 6% zvimwe pachikwereti chedu (600 bhonasi mapoinzi njodzi, mune tekinoroji tekinoroji) kupfuura iyo yeGerman. Izvi zvaive zvakakomba ipapo (isu tese tinorangarira kuti dambudziko iri rakatikanganisa sei), asi ikozvino, kuti tine chikwereti chakapetwa kaviri kupfuura makore gumi nemaviri apfuura. Zvingadai zvave serious zvakapetwa kaviri. Asi, zvaizongodaro hazvigoneki kufungidzira uye taizopedzisira tapinda kubhuroka.

Sezvineiwo, chimwe chinhu zvaitika muEurope mumwedzi wese waMay. Mashoko anoshamisa evamwe vatungamiriri vekuchamhembe, vachiramba kubatana, zvamira (paruzhinji paruzhinji), uye Nyaya yefiscal policy nemonetary policy inoita kunge iri mugwara. Mhedzisiro? Iyo yeSpanish njodzi premium iri pashoma. Sezvaunonzwa: pakati pedambudziko guru iro rataigona kufungidzira mwedzi mishoma yapfuura, nhasi tinobhadhara zvakada kufanana (uye zvishoma) mubereko pachikwereti chedu semaGerman pachavo.

Chishamiso chakaitwa, kutanga, nezvisarudzo munzvimbo yefiscal policy, ndiko kuti, in nezvekushandisa. Ursula von der Leyen, purezidhendi weEuropean Commission, akatora danho uye akakurudzira kuitwa kweEuropean Reconstruction Plan iyo yaizotora 500.000 miriyoni euros mukutamisa uye imwe zviuru mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu muzvikwereti kubatsira nyika kuti dzienderere mberi. Spain inogona kutora kubva ipapo mamwe 250.000 miriyoni mumari uye imwe makumi matanhatu muzvikwereti. Huwandu hwakadai hahutibudise mudambudziko toga, asi hwaizobatsira zvakanyanya. Huwandu hwayo hunogona kureva chidimbu chegumi kubva muzana cheGDP (kureva kuti, huwandu hwezvese zvinoburitswa nemaSpanish mumazuva angangoita makumi matatu nemashanu kana makumi mana).

Saka, kuti tinzwisisane, Europe ichatipa kana kutikweretesa nemutengo wakaderera muhoro kana chimwe chinhu ... uye izvo zvakawanda. Ngwarira, chii pane zvinokanganisa. Chekutanga ndechekuti Tsanangudzo dzinofanirwa kupedzwa mumavhiki mashoma anotevera., uye matambudziko achiri kungomuka. Chechipiri ndechekuti Tinofanira kuzvipira October asati asvika, negwaro rakasainwa uye rakatanga, kuita shanduko dzinopembedza rubatsiro urwu. Semuenzaniso, shanduko mumusika wevashandi, uye zvinoratidzika kuti muEurope vari kufunga nezve shanduko dzakasiyana pane dzakarongwa nemukuru weSpain. Asi, zvakanaka, ngatisiyei izvozvi: isu tinofanirwa kuve nenguva yekutaurirana nekuzvigadzirisa.

Taive tatova nefiscal policy, but Takanga tisuwa gumbo rechipiri, iro remari, uye nezuro purezidhendi weECB (European Central Bank) akazvitaura zvakasimba. Zvimwe chete Christine Lagarde uyo munaKurume akavimbisa kuti akange asiri pano "kudzivisa mapremium enjodzi kuti asakwira," akazvipira nezuro batsira 600.000 mamirioni euros (iwe unoverenga izvo kurudyi) muchirongwa chako chekutenga chikwereti. Uye kana ECB yakawana chimwe chinhu mumakore achangopfuura, chikwereti, ndiko kuti, kuzvimirira. Kutarisana nekusashanda kwehurumende ne "European Council" yavo, Iyo ECB ine hunyanzvi hwakakwana uye gwara rekuita sarudzo dzinokurumidza uye dzinoshanda. Chakanga chichipokanwa kusvika parizvino ndechekuti aive nechido. Asi Lagarde mukuonekwa kwake pakutanga kwaJune akajekesa: "achaita chero zvakafanira". Izvi zvinogoneka zvakare nekuti ECB yave yakazvimirira mumakore achangopfuura kubva kune yaimbove ine simba rose reGerman Central Bank, iyo yagara ichinetseka nekukwira kwemitengo uye iyo, saka, ingadai isina kuda, dai yanga iri iyo. tora sarudzo, kubhadhara chikwereti chinokwira mitengo. Asi mamiriro ezvinhu aripo, umo kudarika inflation, kune kutya kwekuderera kwemitengo kunoshora vakwereti vatotongerwa, Lagarde yakawana simba uye kugona kuita sarudzo. Saka tinogona kuvimba nerutsigiro rweECB kana tichifanira kukwereta zvakawanda, uye tinogona kutarisira kuti iri pamitengo yakaderera.

Saka tinotanga June nevamwe tarisiro yehupfumi ine njodzi, asi na Europe yakazvipira kuuya kuzonunura (pasina chikonzero che "kutinunura") nzwisisa zvakanaka. Zvichaitwa sei uye kuti zvinopindirana sei nemitemo yemukati ... ichava imwe nyaya, nokuti kune zvidimbu zvakawanda zvekuisa mupuzzle munguva yose yezhizha, uye hapana imwe inogona kushayikwa (somuenzaniso, bhajeti inovimbika) saka kuti tiwane mari.