Chiyero chisina kusimba icho chakanakira PP kutyoka uye kuti UP ichengetedze

Nechinyorwa ichi tinovhara nhevedzano yevatatu yakatsaurirwa kumamiriro ezvinhu anogona kutorwa kubva kune ongororo pakati kubva munaChikumi 6 uye kushanduka kwayo kunoonekwa kusvika June 26.

Muzvikamu zviviri zvakapfuura takaongorora mamiriro ezvinhu kuruboshwe bhuroka and in  bhuroka rakarurama. 

Tinotanga kubva pafungidziro mbiri dzekupokana, asi dzatinotenda kuti dzine musoro:

1. Tine mapoka maviri esarudzo, imwe kurudyi (PP+C's) uye imwe kuruboshwe (UP+PSOE) uye tinobvuma kugoverwa kwezvikamu zvevhoti zvakatorwa kubva paavhareji yesarudzo musi waChikumi 6. Zvimwe kugoverwa yaizorerekera mhedzisiro kune rimwe divi kana rimwe, hongu, asi vaisazokanganisa mhedziso dzavose.
2. Tevere tinoyedza nemukana wekuti iyo scenario inova polarized kubva zvino kusvika 26-J. Muchinyorwa chino chekupedzisira, tinofanoona zvakare mukana wekuti zvakapesana zviitike. Pamasvomhu tinoshandisa iyo Electrocalculator kubva kune watinoshanda naye Lutxana, akakwenenzverwa nevamwe vashandisi, uye izvo zvinotipa zvinopfuura kuvimbika kwakaratidza, ine muganho wekukanganisa watinofungidzira pahupamhi hwezvigaro zviviri pakudzidziswa kwega kwega.

Kana zviitiko zviri kurudyi nekuruboshwe zvadzidzwa, yave nguva yekuzvibatanidza kuti uwane mufananidzo unogoneka. Handei ikoko:

Kuti tiverenge nhamba inoshanda yemapato, iyo munyaya ino inotiratidza "polarization index", takashandisa nzira yaProfessor Lijphart.

Tafura inoratidza, kumusoro, mukana wekuti PSOE neC's dzichakunda polarization uye kudzoreredza mavhoti nemubhadharo wePP neUP, uye, pazasi, mukana wekuti zvakapesana zviitike. Tafura yacho inoenderera mberi zvishoma yakananga kune yakanyanyisa polarization kuti ienderere mberi nemusoro wezvinyorwa zvakapfuura uye nekuti, zvine mutsindo, ndinotenda kuti kune zvimwe zvekuenda kunzvimbo iyoyo. Chiyero chisina kunaka (bhuruu) mukana kune bhuroka rekurudyi, uye chiyero chakanaka (tsvuku) inobatsira kuruboshwe.

Mhedzisiro inobuda yega. Tinogona kuapfupisa seizvi:

Chekutanga. Iko kuwirirana kwemasimba ikozvino kwakaratidzwa nesarudzo ndiyo yakanakisisa inogoneka kuruboshwe. Sarudzo dzavo dzinoita nani, hongu, kana vakakwira muchikamu chevhoti, asi chero huremu hweumwe neumwe wemauto ezvematongerwo enyika huchichengetwa zvakanyanya sezvinobvira. Inenge imwe shanduko chero ipi zvayo ichakuvadza kwauri.

Chepiri. Kana iyo PSOE ne/kana Ciudadanos ikakwanisa kukunda masimba epolarization uye nekuvandudza tarisiro yavo mumavhiki anouya, vanozokwanisa kufambira mberi munzvimbo dzavo dzega, asi, pamwe chete, bloc iyo inogona kubatsira ingave yakarurama- bapiro bloc (nzvimbo yekurudyi yegirafu).

Chetatu. Kana PP neUP vakabudirira muhurongwa hwavo hwepolarization, uye vose vari vaviri vakasimudza chikamu chavo mumazuva makumi maviri atasara kusvika sarudzo, ivo vachagadzirisa zvigaro zvavo pachavo, asi, pamwe chete, nzvimbo yePP ichave yakawanda zvikuru. yakasimbiswa kupfuura iyo UP (nzvimbo yekuruboshwe yegirafu).

Muchidimbu, kuruboshwe ndiko kutanga chirongwa chesarudzo pashure pokunge asvika mumamiriro ezvinhu anomuita mukundi wemutambo. Zvisinei, Chero kusandurwa kwezviyero zvazvino, kunze kwekuwedzera pamwe chete kwechikamu chevhoti dzePSOE neUP, zvichafarira vanopikisa.

Zvakawanda zvekuongorora pamberi pemushandirapamwe wesarudzo. Zvino zvakanaka zvinotanga. Uye pano tichakuudza. Kwaziwai mose.

Zvakapfuura munhevedzano:

Kushamisika kwacho kunogona kudzivirira Pablo Iglesias kusvika kuhurumende

Iyo PP inokanganisika muCiudadanos

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