Sarudzo muGermany: mibatanidzwa mishanu ichiri kuitika

Zuva resarudzo dzeGermany ririkuramba richiswedera Nyamavhuvhu 24. MaGerman achasarudza anenge 630 nhengo dzeBundestag (kamuri yayo yevatevedzeri), uye ivavawo vachagadza kanzura kwenhambo yemakore mana.

Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU inochengetedza hutungamiriri hwakasununguka pamusoro peSchulz's SPD, asi iri kure nefungidziro yakakwana isina munhu anofunga nezvayo. Naizvozvo, kupfuura kuti ndiani achakunda, nyaya iri kuziva kuti kuwirirana kwemauto kuchabuda kubva kuBundestag inotevera, kuona kuti mubatanidzwa wehurumende ungangove chii.

Parizvino, ongororo dzazvino dzakaita seizvi:

Kunobva: http://www.wahlrecht.de

Iwo maviri mapato makuru akati dzika pane makore mana apfuura, asi anodzokorora zvabuda.  Chinokosha ndicho chipingamupinyi chesarudzo che5% yemavhoti. Mapato asiri kusvika pachiyero ichi anobva angoburitswa muparamende, zvichireva kuti mavhoti mamiriyoni akawanda anogona kurasika, izvo zvowedzera huwandu hwevatevedzeri vemapato makuru. Izvo zvakaitika makore mana apfuura nevakasununguka veFDP, uye nekodzero yakaoma yeAfD. Mapato maviri aya akawana mavhoti anodarika mamiriyoni maviri uye angangoita zvikamu zvishanu kubva muzana, asi hazvina kukwana kuhwina chigaro chimwe chete.

Pachiitiko ichi, zvakadaro, zvinoita sekunge vane rusununguko nevari kure-kurudyi vachakwanisa kupinda muparamende, izvo zvinoita kuti mutambo wemubatanidzwa uwedzere kuoma, muhurongwa hwakafanana nehweGerman uko kugovaniswa kwezvigaro kwakaringana, uye vanosvika. izvo zvemashiripiti 5% iwe unogona kushuvira kune makumi mana evatevedzeri. Mamwe mapato maviri "madiki", bato rekuruboshwe "Die Linke" uye vezvezvakatipoteredza "Grüne", vangangodzokorora mhedzisiro yavo kubva makore mana apfuura, maererano nesarudzo.

Avhareji yakagadzirwa nePollytix inoratidza shanduko iyi muongororo yemakore mana apfuura:

Mhedzisiro (yenguva pfupi) yesarudzo yaSchulz neSocial Democrats mukutanga kwegore rino inooneka zvakajeka, pamwe nepamusoro-soro nguva dzekurudyi (blue line) uye girinhi (girinhi mutsara) panguva ya2016.

Asi zvino zvese zvakaitika, uye pane tsika zvakare kune isina kukwana-mapato maviri system (2+4). Mufananidzo wenguva ino unoratidza nzvimbo yechitatu kuruboshwe (yepepuru mutsara), uye vakasununguka vakaiswa zvakanaka (yellow line). Nezvemutambo wemubatanidzwa, iwo angangove nhasi angave anotevera:

Pollytix.eu data

Iyo inogoneka kuburitswa kwe "mubatanidzwa mukuru" pakati pevanotonga demokrasi uye maDemocratic democrats anotonga Germany, anonakidzwa neruzhinji, neMerkel's CDU sebato rinotungamira.

Asi, zvichavapo mushure mesarudzo dzimwe nzira?

Nebato reAfD rakapihwa mutemo, zvinotevera zvinogona kuongororwa:

• Huwandu hwe mapato matatu "akasara". Parizvino ndiyo ishoma, sezvo yaizoshaya ingangoita gumi muzana yemavhoti kuti iwane ruzhinji. Muchidimbu, kukwidziridzwa kutsva kwekushamisika kweSchulz, senge kwaitwa munguva yechando, kunogona kudzoreredza mukana uyu.
• Vakasununguka, idzo dzakasimuka nguva pfupi yapfuura, dzave pedyo nekukwanisa kudzoreredza basa ravo rekare sehinji. Huwandu hwemavhoti avo neaMerkel hwave kuda kuwana ruzhinji. Aizongoda zvigaro zvishoma pane zvaanopihwa nesarudzo.
• Kana iyo CDU/liberals coalition haana kusvika zvigaro zvakakodzera, the Greens, idzo dzakachinja mumakore achangopfuura dzichienda kunzvimbo dzakatariswa zvakanyanya uye dzine hunyanzvi, dzinogona kupa mavhoti anodiwa mumubatanidzwa wematatu.
• Pakavewo nefungidziro, zvakananga, nezvinogoneka mubatanidzwa pakati peMerkel nemagirini kana mapato ese ari maviri awana mapoinzi akati wandei mavhoti kupfuura zvakafanotaurwa nesarudzo.

Kwasara mwedzi nehafu kuti sarudzo dziitwe uye chiyero chinogona kuramba chichisiyana. Muzviitiko zvakawanda mutsauko pakati pezvimwe zvingangoitika uye zvimwe zvinotsamira pane zvishoma zvegumi zvechikamu chevhoti uye zvigaro zvishoma muBundestag. Pachine zvakawanda zvokusarudza.