Electoaverage (31J): iyo PSOE inogona kunge iri kutanga kudzika

Senguva dzose apo kuongororwa kweCIS pamwedzi kwakabudiswa kwemwedzi mishomanana, nezuro vezvenhau vakanga vakazara nemashoko anopesana uye, pamusoro pezvose, kuvhiringidzika.

Nzira yakanakisa yekunzwisisa mamiriro ndeye kushandisa avhareji yeongororo (munyaya iyi, tinoratidza vese vanozivikanwa muna Chikunguru). Avhareji inogadzirisa kuwandisa kweongororo yega yega uye inoisa zvinhu munzvimbo yavo.

ari Mazuva akakosha kunzwisisa mwedzi uno ndiwo mazuva Chikunguru 22 kusvika 25, umo musangano wakakundikana we investiture wakaitwa. Pane boka rekuongorora iro basa remumunda rakatanga nguva isati yatanga. Pane imwe ongororo (Invymark) yakaitwa mumazuva apfuura, apo mhepo yainge yatopisa asi zvanga zvisati zvazivikanwa kuti chii chaizoitika. Uye kune zvimwe zvidzidzo zviviri (Sociometrica uye Electopanel yedu) kubva pamazuva mushure mekudyara.

Kubva pakuongororwa kweiyo data iripo tinotora izvozvo Panogona kunge paine shanduko yemaitiro.

Ngatizvitarisei zvakadzama:

ari kutanga kwaChikunguru sarudzo vaiva zvishoma yunifomu. Iyo chete inosarudzika ndeyeCIS, ane data isina hapana chekuona nevamwe vose. Asi izvi zvine musoro, nekuti "hazviiti kubika", uye zvinongoparadzira data rekuvhota rakananga rakaziviswa nevakapindura, richivasimudzira (!!) kune vavhoti vese. Iyoyo haisi fungidziro yevhoti sekuziva kunoita sangano pacharo. Isu tinosungirwa kuparadzira data rako, nekuti riri pachena uye rinopihwa zvakawanda zvakakosha, asi isu tinogara tichijekesa kuti Izvo zvinopihwa neCIS hazvisi fungidziro yevhoti, asi kuwedzera kune vese vavhoti vevhoti yakaziviswa yakananga. Hatigone kupinda muchikonzero chemaitiro aya: tinongobata data rako rekupedzisira sezvatinoita nevamwe vese vanovhota, kunyangwe tichiziva zvavasingakwanisi. Ehe saizvozvo, hativasanganisire muavhareji yedu, nekuti kana tikadaro tinenge tichisanganisa mavhoti estimation nedirect vote.

Kana ari kushanduka kweavhareji, musiyano unogona kuonekwa pakati peongororo nguva refu isati yaitwa, iyo yakaitwa chaizvo mumazuva iwayo, uye neakazotevera. Iyo PSOE inoita kunge iri kuratidza kumwe kudzikira, zvichida yakabatanidzwa maererano nezvinyorwa zvedu kune kuwedzera kwekurega, asi mamwe mapato anofamba mupfupi, zvishoma kumusoro kusiyana.

Isu tinofanirwa kumirira mazuva mashoma anotevera uye ongororo itsva kuziva kana maitiro aya akabatanidzwa kana kuti ndezvenguva pfupi. Chimwe chikonzero chekusava nechokwadi tarisa kuti ndiani anonyanya kubatsirwa nemamiriro matsva: Kubva paElectoPanel yedu inoratidzika kunge yakatemwa kuti ndiyo PP, asi Sociometrica, kune rumwe rutivi, inonongedza kuCiudadanos.

Pakupedzisira, mukuongorora kwebhuroka, the PSOE inoramba ichipfuura vakwikwidzi vayo kuruboshwe (Unidas Podemos) muSpain yose, uye inoita zvimwechete kana tikatarisa nechepakati (inodarika Ciudadanos kwese). Muchikamu chakanaka, PP inosimbisa hukuru hwayo kwese kwese kunze kweCatalonia nedzimwe purovhinzi uko Ciudadanos ichiri kukwanisa kuisunga kana kuipfuura (Cádiz).

Kana tichicherechedza zvakazara matombo maviri makuru aripo nhasi, ruboshwe runotonga ruzhinji rwemahombekombe uye kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero, nepo kurudyi kusimba zvakanyanya pakati.