France 28/4: Pasinei nezuva rakaipa, Macron anochengetedza kutungamira kwake kwakanaka

Mazuva mashoma apfuura, pakangoitwa sarudzo yekutanga yeFrance, sarudzo dzekutanga dzechikamu chechipiri, dzichaitwa muna Chivabvu 7, dzakaitwa pachena. Vese vakabvumirana kuti Macron aizowana pakati pe60 ne65% yemavhoti, zvichienzaniswa ne35-40% yeLe Pen.

Ne data idzi, uye tichifunga kuti kwasara mavhiki maviri sarudzo dzisati dzaitwa, on the 24 Isu takagadzira modhi maererano neiyo Macron aive nemukana we82,1%. kumanikidza, zvichienzaniswa ne17,9% yeLe Pen. Isu takayambira kunyange ipapo kuti zuva rega rega raipfuura pasina chero chiitiko chakakosha chaiitika chakashanda mukufarira kwaMacron, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera mikana yake yekukunda.

Tasvika Chishanu, Kubvumbi 28. Kare kwasara mazuva 9 chete nezvesarudzo, uye hapana chakachinja. Nezuro Le Pen akawana kukunda kudiki, achipembedzwa padanho rimwe chete iro Macron akabhohwa. Sarudzo idzi dzinoratidza izvi nekudzokororwa kunomutendera kubva pa38.2% yemavhoti kusvika pa40.2%. Uku kuvandudzwa kwakakosha mumavhoti, asi mikana yake yekukunda kwekupedzisira, maererano nemuenzaniso wedu, haina kumbokura kubva nezuro kusvika nhasi nezvikamu zvitanhatu zvegumi, uye, chaizvoizvo, yakaderera pane yaakava nayo zuva rakatevera mushure mekutanga kwekutanga. . Uye nguva yakatarisana navo. Le Pen yaizoda kurova kunoshamisa kupfuura nezuro kudzoreredza maitiro, shanduko dzinogona kukonzera shanduko yakadzama mumanzwiro evavhoti. Zvikasadaro, iwe uchaona mikana yako mishoma inokurumidza kupera sezvo mazuva anofamba.

Kunyangwe zuva rakanaka iro Le Pen aive naro nezuro, avhareji yedu inomuisa kure zvakanyanya kubva kumukwikwidzi wake muchikamu chevhoti (40.2% maringe ne59.8%) uye nemukana chaiwo wekukunda (16.0%).

Indekisi yedu, hongu, handiyo yega iri kukudziridzwa paiyi nyaya. Wese munhu anobvuma kuti Macron ane mukana uri nani wekuhwina kupfuura Le Pen, asi vanopokana pane basa rinoitwa nekufamba kwenguva uye zvinogona kuita mablack swans munyaya iyi.

Iyi ndeimwe yeakanyanya kusimba mukufarira Macron:

https://twitter.com/TheCrosstab/status/857591311251247105

Uye iyi ndeimwe yeayo anopa Le Pen mikana yakawanda:

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/857421835687907329

Pakati peiyo 1-2% yemikana iyo vamwe vanopa Le Pen (uye izvo zviri, chaizvo, mukana wekuti anganakidzwa kana sarudzo dzaitwa nhasi), uye iyo 25% yaanopihwa nevamwe (zvichida kuwedzeredza maitiro enguva uye mukana we “black swans”) ndiwo, angangoita, iwo mashoma chaiwo mikana iyo Le Pen akasiya.

Uye, sepfupiso yekuti nyaya yacho yakaita sei, heino titter kubva kune inogara iri chaiyo Kiko Llaneras:

6/ Kuhwina Le Pen kunoda chimwe chinhu kuti chiitike. Chinhu chinonyadzisa, chinonyadzisa. Pamwe mabheti anotsamira pane izvo: ivo vanopa iyo 12% mukana.

— Kiko Llaneras (@kikollan) April 27, 2017