Brexit iBlack Swan here?

NeSvondo tine sarudzo muSpain uye sarudzo dzakapedza mwedzi miviri yadarika dzichitiudza zvakafanana nezve mhedzisiro. Nekusiyana kushoma, zvese zvakasangana.

Nekudaro, izvo zvisingagone kufanofemberwa neongororo kuuya kweblack swans. Musi waKurume 11, 2004, matatu sarudzo dzegore iroro dzisati dzaitwa, kurwiswa kwegandanga kwakaratidza mavhoti akaitwa, asi kuti vakapesvedzera kusvika papi kuchiri kunetsana nanhasi. Pane dzimwe nguva kwave kune zviitiko zvinoshamisa pakati pemushandirapamwe wesarudzo, kunyange zvazvo zvisiri zvakanyanya.

Brexit ichareva chimwe chinhu chakafanana here?

Zvinokwezva kufunga kuti zvichava nesimba. Mushure mezvose, zvinoitikawo mazuva matatu sarudzo dzisati dzaitwa, panguva chaiyo iyo sarudzo dzisingachakwanise kuyera mhedzisiro yavo. Kwete kunyange iyo Andorran account ichave munguva yekunyatso kuyera kuti ndezvipi mhedzisiro yazvichave nazvo.

Zvinogoneka kuti maitiro epfungwa anobatsira polarization. Vanochengetedza, vachitungamirirwa nekutya, vachasimbisa vhoti yavo, sezvinogara zvichiitika mumamiriro ezvinhu umo vanhu vanofanira kuzvidzivirira kubva pakutyisidzira: vanoenda kune izvo zvinozivikanwa, vanotiza kubva kune zvitsva. Nekune rumwe rutivi, vatsigiri vekuvandudzwa kwakadzama kwehurongwa vanogona kuona pfungwa yavo yakasimbiswa kuti "hongu unogona" kukunda pasarudzo uye kuchinja zvinhu. Brexit inogona kuvabatsira kusimbisa kuzvipira kwavo kune shanduko chaidzo pachinzvimbo chezvavanoona se "kutsiva" kubva kuC's kana kunyange PSOE.

Kana zvakadaro, PP neUP zvinogona kubatsirwa. Kune rimwe divi, hazviratidzike sekuti Brexit inogona kuunganidza vavhoti vemapato maviri epakati, asi haumboziva. Kunze kwekunge kutya kuchiunza mavhoti kuPSOE uye kuvabvisa kubva kuUP.

Chero zvazvingava, maitiro evanovhota mumazuva achangopfuura anogara ari chakavanzika. Ivo vasina kusarudzwa ndivo vanopa chiyero, uye ikozvino, muSpain, chinhu chitsva chichangobva kupinda mumutambo. Nhasi uye mangwana pachava nekutaura kwakawanda pamusoro peBrexit, uye hapana munhu ane mashiripiti wand kuziva kuti ichaita sei vhoti yevasina kusarudzwa, kana zvachose. Ko vhoti yakanyanyisa kuvhota ichakunda here, chishuvo cheshanduko yakadzama chichakunda here, kana, zvakasiyana, kuzvipira kune imwe "chapakati" chibvumirano kuchafarirwa here?

NeSvondo, mhinduro.