Vox nePACMA, yakanyaradzwa nevavhoti kana pasina sarudzo chaidzo?

Kune vazhinji vevateveri vedu pamasocial network vanowanzotibvunza nezve kuparara kwe "Mamwe Mapato" patinoburitsa vhoti. Mubvunzo haugone kuita zvine musoro munguva dzemhirizhonga kune yechinyakare-mapato maviri system (kunyangwe yanga iri "mu coma" kubvira 2013), kubvira. iyo inotangira yeUPyD yekupinda muCongress muna 2008 (pakati pebipartisan wave) kana iyo "bhomba" yekubuda kwePodemos nevamiriri veEuropean 5 musarudzo dzeEuropean 2014. Vanoita kuti vazhinji vedu vafunge kana mapato matsva aine mukana wekushamisika mumwedzi iri kuuya.

Tichifunga nezvechiitiko ichi, mamwe maumbirwo eparamende akadai Vox o Pacma Vanogona kuenderera mberi nekuwana chigaro musarudzo dzinotevera Sarudzo dzeEuropean/manisipala/dzinozvimirira uye musarudzo dzinotevera. Asi zvakaoma kuziva kuti rutsigiro rwako chairwo nderei kana ruzhinji rwevavhoti vasingabvunzi zvakananga nezvechinangwa chako chekuvhota, Iyi imhinduro kumushandirapamwe wekunyarara here? zvemaumbirwo aya kuti zvibatsire mapato echinyakare Kana kuti havana zvokusarudza here? kuwana nzvimbo muParamende?

Muchinyorwa chino tichaongorora mamiriro e "mapato matsva" anga ari ekupedzisira kuwana mumiriri, tichaona kuti sarudzo dzakapiwa sei mumwedzi isati yaitwa sarudzo uye mhedzisiro yavakawana. Pazasi isu tichaongorora kana izvi zvakatangisa zvinogona kuchinjirwa kune mamiriro azvino uye kana, nekudaro, maumbirwo matsva ane mukana wekupinda muEuropean neSpanish zvematongerwo enyika.

Nyaya yeUPyD

Kupinda muCongress

Muna 2008, sarudzo dzakaitwa kuSpain, sarudzo uko huwandu hwePP nePSOE hwakasvika 84% pamutengo wekuderera kwekutsigirwa kweIU nemapato echinyakare enyika. Asi mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro, bato idzva rakawana chigaro chaRosa Díez muCongress of Deputies: UPyD. Akaita izvi aine 1,19% yemavhoti uye mazana matatu ezviuru mavhoti.

Sarudzo dzakapfuura

ari sarudzo dzichangoburwa dzesarudzo fungidziro dzakaburitswa dzinofungidzira zvinotevera mhedzisiro yeUPyD:

URIKO HERE: 0,6%
Vavhoti: 1% (kunyangwe vazhinji vasina kupa data, kunyangwe muchikamu chekupedzisira chemushandirapamwe El Periódico, La Vanguardia naEl País vakamupa sarudzo dzekupinda nezvigaro 0-1).

Rosa Díez anopa kushamisika

Mushure mekugadzira bato mwedzi mitanhatu sarudzo dzisati dzaitwa mushure mekuparadzana kubva kuPSE, pasina kupokana UPyD naRosa Díez vakaenda kumberi kwenhau dzezvematongerwo enyika nekuda kwekuwana chinhu chakaoma kwazvo: kukwenya chigaro kubva kumapato echinyakare. Muchiitiko chake, Rosa akakwanisa kupinda nekukunda iyo 3% yevhoti chipingamupinyi muNharaunda yeMadrid, inotarisa 131.000. mavhoti munharaunda yakati yakazvimirira.

Mhedzisiro muMadrid: 3,76% - 1 chigaro.
Mugumisiro wenyika: 1,19%.

Kutsauka kweCIS: -49%
Kutsauka pakuvhota: -16%

Nyaya yePodemos

"Kushamisika" kwevaEurope

Kupinda kwePodemos muParamende yeEuropean muna 2014 pasina mubvunzo kwakaratidza nhoroondo yedu yezvematongerwo enyika. Uye kure nekuwana chigaro, Bato raPablo Iglesias rakawana zvigaro zvishanu, pedyo ne5% yemavhoti, kungosvetukira kupeji yekutanga yenhau dzese dzenyika kusatarisirwa kwechigumisiro chakanaka mune izvo vazhinji vanoongorora vanofunga nezve kukurumidza kwekuguma kweiyo bipartisan modhi. ChiSpanish.

Sarudzo dzakapfuura

Kare muna 2014 takanga tichitotaura pamusoro pezvatinoona nezvesarudzo sarudzo dzisati dzaitwa muelectomanía, uye kunyangwe vazhinji venyu. wauya kuzofanotaura -nekubudirira kushoma- zvawaifunga kuti zvichaitika mukuverenga.

Chokwadi ndechokuti Kwete kunyange muLa Sexta vaive vachibheja pamhedzisiro yakanaka yePodemosne sarudzo yake yazvino yevaEurope zvichiratidza kuti kuumbwa kwepepuru kunogona kuwana 1 MEP ne 1,5% yemavhoti, kunyange zvakadaro avhareji yesarudzo dzichangoburwa Vakaisa avo veIglesias panosvika 2% -3% nevamwe vavhoti vakaita seGAD3 kana SigmaDos zvakavakwidza kusvika 3,5%:

URIKO HERE: 1,8%
Vavhoti: 2,5%

Kubhomba kwe5 MEPs

Husiku hwaMay 25, 2014 tese takashamisika pakutarisa izvozvo Sarudzo dzakange dzarerutsa kudhonzwa kwevhoti nemufananidzo waIglesias, vasina kungowana chigaro muParamende yeEuropean, asiwo zvakakwanisa kuzunguza hurongwa hwemapato maviri, zvichiratidza kuti hurongwa hutsva hunogona kuvhara chero bato rechinyakare, kutevera matanho eUPyD.

Mhinduro: 7,97% - 5 zvigaro.
CIS kutsauka: -77,4%
Pollster kutsauka: -68,6%

Vox y PACMA

Parizvino zvakaoma kuongorora rutsigiro rwevanhu vekuSpain kune idzi mbiri dzekuumbwa apo hapana kana mumwe wevavhoti anobvunza nezvemapato aya. Kwete kunyange iyo yakazara CIS ongororo inobvunza nezvavo.

Mumwedzi ichangopfuura zvave zvakadaro Sociometrics yeSpanish ndiye ega akazvipira kuratidza rutsigiro rwaaizokohwa Vox musarudzo huru, achimuisa inenge 1,5%.

Nekudaro, ese Sociometrica uye SigmaDos akaputsa iyorutsigiro kubva kuvagari veMadrid kuenda kuVox nePACMA panguva yaMay 2 mumavhoti avo kuti tinozviputsa sei musarudzo yedu yesarudzo, kuwana Vox 3,5% yezvitsigiso zvenhau, uye PACMA 1,6%.

Vox national estimate: 1,5%
PACMA National Estimate: N / A

Estimate Com. Madrid Vox: 3,5%
Estimate Com. Madrid PACMA: 1,6%

Vox: ine chaiyo sarudzo

Kana tikaenzanisa fungidziro yerutsigiro yeVox pamatunhu enyika needunhu, Vox angave nenguva iri nyore kupinda muCongress of Deputies ine chigaro chimwe chete cheMadrid kudzokorora kumuka kweUPyD muna 2008.

Uyezve, kuswededzwa kwevaEurope nehurongwa hwavo hwekumiririra kuenzanirana kunoreva kuti haigone kutongerwa kunze kwekuumbwa kweAbascal. "Muitiro weChechi" kana ichikwanisa kukwezva mavhoti asingagutsikane kubva kukodzero inovabata kumberi kwezvematongerwo enyika, chimwe chinhu chinogona kupa data riri nani musarudzo dza2020, uye tichifunga kuti Sociometrics inofanotaura 5% rutsigiro munharaunda dzinozvimiririra dzeMadrid, iyo inoitwa pamwe chete neEuropean, saka vanogona kutowana zvigaro muMadrid Assembly iyo Vaigona kutogadzirisa ramangwana rehurumende yeMadrid yakazvimirira, izvo zvaizovapa mukurumbira wakanyanya padanho renyika.

PACMA: iri mungozi muEurope

Kusiyana nezvinoitika nekuumbwa kweAbascal, Bato remhuka rinoratidzika richiri kure nekukwanisa kupinda muCongress yeVatevedzeri, uye lSarudzo chete yaunofanirwa kuita izvi ndeye kuti tsigiro inoratidzwa nesarudzo muMadrid iendeswe kuchikamu chenyika musarudzo dzemuEurope, zvichida yakabatanidzwa kune capitalization ye "protest vote" yeruboshwe isina kugutsikana ne Unidos Podemos.

Kana akabudirira, kupinda kwake muCongress muna 2020 kuchave pedyo zvakanyanya, kunyangwe zvikasadaro zvingave zvakaoma kune vanorwira mhuka kuunza izwi rekudzivirira kodzero dzemhuka kuCarrera de San Jerónimo.

Mamwe data haana kumbokwana

Sezvaunoona, zvinoita sokuti Kupinda kweVox nePACMA muparamende yeEurope uye nekuzoendeswa kuCongress of Deputies kunorembera netambo., asi ichokwadi kuti zvingava nyore kufungidzira mhedzisiro yacho kana vavhoti vakasanganisira kuparara kwerutsigiro rwemapato aya pakati pe data ravo.

Haisi nyaya yekuoma, inyaya yekuda, uye kana tichida kana kusada dzidziso dzavanodzivirira, tichiziva mufananidzo uchiri wevavhoti haufanire kuve sarudzo, pakupedzisira. Kuva nezvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda hazvikuvadzi munhu, data haina kumbobvira yakanyanyisa. Uye kunyanya kana mune zvematongerwo enyika hapana chakanyorwa, uye ndiani anoziva kana rimwe remapato aya richaita nyeredzi pavhavha yeMay 2019 inotevera ... kana kwete.