IJamani: yehla kwinkxaso kaMerkel emva kwesikhundla sakhe malunga neembacu.

Isimo esitsha sezopolitiko esibonakaliswe kuvoto kunye nokwehla kukaMerkel ekudumeni ngenxa yenkxaso yakhe yeembacu, ngakumbi izibonelelo ze-eurosceptic nationalist AfD, kunye nokuphinda kuhlanganiswe i-Grand Coalition.

Uhlalutyo lovavanyo lwamva nje oluvela eAllensbach, Emnid, Forsa, FgW, GMS, Infratest Dimap kunye ne-INSA:

Akukho namnye kubo owafumana i-center-right (CDU/CSU kunye ne-FDP) yafumana isininzi esipheleleyo, kodwa akukho namaqela asekhohlo (SPD, Grüne and Linke).

I-FDP yayiza kungena kwi-Bundestag ye-6 ye-polls, kwaye kuphela i-INSA ibashiya emasangweni nge-4,5% (i-5% iyadingeka), umehluko ongaphakathi komda wephutha kuyo nayiphi na i-poll.

Ke ngoko i-AfD iya kuba ngumlamli wawo nawuphi na urhulumente ngaphandle koManyano oluKhulu. Ukunqanda le meko, kuba uMerkel (CDU) okanye uGabriel (SPD) abazimisele ukwenza nasiphi na isivumelwano kunye noPetry (AfD), iGrand Coalition ivezwa njengeyona ndlela inokwenzeka.

Umndilili wovavanyo ubonisa:

•AfD: 6,9%
•CDU/CSU: 37,4%
•FDP: 5,2%
•Grune: 10,4%
•SPD: 24,8%
• Unxulumano: 9,2%

Kumaxabiso aphakathi, akukho bloko ifumana isininzi esipheleleyo. I-center-right iya kugcina i-42,6% kunye ne-44,4% ekhohlo, kunye ne-AfD (ekunene), kunye ne-7% yayo, isitshixo kurhulumente. Inketho kuphela: ukuphindwa kwe-Grand Coalition.

Okuphela koongameli bengingqi abangengabo iDemocratic Democrats (CDU/CSU) okanye iSocial Democrats (SPD) baya kuwa ngokovoto lwamva nje:

* eThuringia:

I-INSA ipapashe uphando lwe-Thuringia, kuphela uMhlaba olawulwa yi-Linke, apho kubonwa ukuba i-Linke iye yawa ukususela ehlotyeni kwinqanaba elifanayo lokuba i-AfD ikhula. Kubonakala ngathi iya kuba ngomnye umhlaba osingise kuManyano oluKhulu:

•CDU: 35,5%… (33,5%)
• Unxulumano: 24,5%... (28,2%)
•SPD: 15,5%… (12,4%)
•AfD: 12%... (10,6%)
•Grune: 6,5%… (5,7%)

Kwizibiyeli kukho idatha efunyenwe kunyulo oludlulileyo, ngo-2014. Abasekhohlo bahlala bezinzile kwiivoti kodwa ngokwandisa amanqaku e-AfD ama-4 kunye ne-CDU 2, baphulukene nesininzi esipheleleyo abasonwabileyo ngoku.

* eBaden-Württemberg:

Olunye uvoto lwakutsha nje lwe-INSA lunokukhupha iGreens kumongameli wokuphela koMhlaba abawulawulayo: iBaden-Württemberg.

•CDU: 40%… (39%)
•Grune: 24%… (24,2%)
•SPD: 16%… (23,1%)
•AfD: 8%… (yayingekho)
•FDP: 5%… (5,3%)
•Unxulumano: 5%... (2,8%)

Kulo mzekelo ekhohlo (Grüne, SPD kunye neLinke) sumarian 45% kunye ilungelo iziko (CDU, FDP) enye 45%, isitshixo urhulumente abe AfD enamandla kunye 8%. Ekuphela kwendlela yokuphepha amandla okwenza izigqibo e-AfD iya kuba yi-Grand Coalition.

Ukuba uqikelelo lwe-INSA luqinisekisiwe, onke amazwe aseJamani aya kuba ngusihlalo weenkokeli zeCDU / CSU kunye neSPD.

eBavaria:

Uphando lwe-GMS lwaseBavaria luqikelela ukubuyela kwipalamente yengingqi ye-FDP kunye nokungena kwe-AfD, engazange ibonakale kwi-2013.

•CSU: 46%… (47,7%)
•SPD: 18%… (20,6%)
•Grune: 12%… (8,6%)
•FDP: 6%… (3,3%)
•FW: 6%… (9%)
•AfD: 8%… (ayikhange ibonakale)

I-CSU enamandla inokulahlekelwa sisininzi esipheleleyo, kodwa hayi urhulumente, kuba akukho ndlela yimbi.