I-Pollwatch: i-avareji enobunzima bovoto lwaseYurophu

Emva kokumiliselwa kwe Euro-PollCheck, nangentsebenziswano namajelo eendaba aseYurophu EuObserver siyavuya ukunazisa Umndilili wethu wokuvota olinganiselweyo kunyulo lwePalamente yaseYurophu ngoJuni.

Kukho uqikelelo oluninzi olupapashiweyo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku kwi-EU, uninzi lusekwe kwimiyinge elula yedatha yovavanyo epapashwe kumazwe aliqela, kodwa akukho namnye kubo othathela ingqalelo ubunzima obahlukeneyo babavoti abaqikelela iimeko zonyulo kwi. amazwe angamalungu ngokokuthembeka kwawo okanye iqondo lokuchaneka kwembali.

Ke ngoko, kwi I-EM-Analytics siye saya emsebenzini kwaye Siye saqulunqa indlela yokuqikelela iziphumo ezithathela ingqalelo imiba efana nokuthembeka konyulo okanye uqikelelo lokuthatha inxaxheba.

Ukulungiselela umndilili olinganisiweyo, ezi zigaba zilandelayo ziphuhlisiwe:

1. Ukwahlulwa kokuthembeka kwePollster

Idatha iqulunqwe kuzo zonke ii-polls ezipapashwe kwiifowuni ezintathu zokugqibela zonyulo kumazwe angamalungu.

Ukutenxa kuqikelelo lweqela ngalinye kubalwe ngokusekelwe kwidatha yevoti ukusuka kwingqikelelo yokugqibela ye-pollster nganye, ngaphandle kweePoli zokuPhuma.

Ukutenxa kwe-pollster kwifowuni nganye sisimbuku sexabiso elipheleleyo lokuphambuka kwevoti yamaqela ezopolitiko.

Umyinge wokutenxa, obangela ulwahlulo lwabavoti (i-Euro PollCheck) yi-avareji yokutenxa kwiifowuni ezintathu zokugqibela nge-pollster kunye nelizwe.

Jonga i-Euro-PollCheck apha

2. Uqikelelo lokuthatha inxaxheba

Ukubala idatha yokuthatha inxaxheba Isekelwe kubalo lonyulo, ngokusekelwe kwidatha yakutshanje kubemi abangaphezu kweminyaka eyi-18 ubudala ekhoyo kwi-Eurostat kwilizwe ngalinye.

Ukuqikelela idatha yokuthatha inxaxheba, umyinge wokuthatha inxaxheba kwiifowuni ezintathu zokugqibela zaseYurophu kwilizwe ngalinye zenziwe, zabela ubunzima be-50% kwidatha ye-2019 kunye ne-50% eseleyo kumyinge wokuthatha inxaxheba kwi-2014 kunye ne-2019.

3. Uqikelelo lweVoti

Ubalo loqikelelo lwevoti lwenziwa kusetyenziswa I-avareji elinganiselweyo yonyulo lwamva nje olupapashwe kunyulo lwaseYurophu ngo-2024 ngumvoti ngamnye.

I-pollster nganye inikwe ubunzima obuthile kwilizwe ngalinye, ngokwendawo yayo kuluhlu lokutenxa ngokwembali. Ubuncinci be-5/10 bumiselwe abo banophambuko olukhulu kunamaxesha e-2 impazamo eqhelekileyo yabavoti belo lizwe, kunye nokuhlelwa komgca phakathi kwe-5 kunye ne-10 yokutenxa phakathi kwe-2xMAE kunye ne-0.

Ipesenti yevoti kwiqela ngalinye ibalwa njengomndilili wokusetyenziswa kophinda-phindo lwedatha eqikelelweyo yomgcini-zimvo ngamnye ngobunzima bomvoti oxeliweyo.

4. Uqikelelo lwee-MEPs

Nje ukuba ipesenti yevoti kwiqela ngalinye ibaliwe, Inani labavoti abanokuthi baxhase iqela lezopolitiko elithe laqikelelwa (ukusuka kuluntu kunye neenkcukacha zokuthatha inxaxheba) [ubalo-bantu * inxaxheba * ipesenti].

Uqikelelo lwamasekela lwenziwa ngokomlinganiselo wolwabiwo ngenkqubo ye-D'Hondt, kuthathelwa ingqalelo imiqobo ethile efunekayo ukuze kufunyanwe ukumelwa lilizwe.

Ukwenza oku, idatha yevoti eqikelelweyo yeqela ngalinye yahlulwe phakathi kwamanani ahambelanayo kunye nalawo manani alingana okanye aphezulu kunomlinganiso wokugqibela onika ukungena kwiPalamente yaseYurophu abelwa njenge-MEPs (logama nje ingaphezulu okanye ilingana isithintelo sokungena, kungenjalo, i-0 MPs yabelwe).

5. Ukudityaniswa kwedatha

Ukuze kubalwe iivoti ngeentsapho zezopolitiko, abavoti bamaqela ezopolitiko abakusapho ngalunye kwilizwe ngalinye bayongezwa, kwaye ipesenti yabo yobalo lulonke kunye nenxaxheba eqikelelweyo iyabalwa. Ngokufanayo, ukuhlanganiswa kwabavoti ngosapho oluvela kumazwe ahlukeneyo kwenza kube lula ukufumana idatha yehlabathi malunga nenkxaso yosapho kumanyano luphela.

I-MEPs eziphuma kwiintsapho zezopolitiko ziziphumo zesimbuku samasekela asuka kumaqela abelwa kwiintsapho ezixeliweyo.

Ukucazululwa kweevoti kunye nee-MEPs ngosapho, iqela kunye nelizwe

Olu qikelelo luthathela ingqalelo amaqela aphantse abe ngama-200 anqwenela ukufumana abameli kunyulo lwangoJuni, amanye awo edibana kumanyano (njengoko kusenzeka Sumar kunye nokwahlulwa kwezihlalo nge Sumar/Comuns/Compromís/IU/Más Madrid/Equo...).

Ke, kwi-EuObserver ungajongana nedatha yokuvota yehlabathi kunye nee-MEPs ngosapho lwe-EU iphela, kunye nokuqhekeka kwelizwe kunye neqela. Uya kubona kwakhona inkxaso usapho ngalunye olunayo ngaphakathi kumazwe angamalungu ahlukeneyo kwiimephu zobushushu, kunye nemephu yosapho ephumeleleyo ngokwelizwe.

Okwangoku, esi savenge sokuqala sikhutshwe ngokuyinxenye ngokuvulekileyo (izaphulelo ezikhethekileyo kubabhalisi ngomso).

Fikelela kuphando kwi-EuObserver kwaye ujonge iigrafu ezisebenzisanayo

Inguqulelo yokuqala evulekileyo-uhlaziyo lweepateni luyeza kungekudala

Abaxhasi bethu bayinxalenye ebalulekileyo yolu luntu, kwaye ke ngoko uya kuba nokufikelela kuphela kuwo wonke lo mxholo, ngesivumelwano esifikelelwe phakathi kwe-EM-Electomanía kunye ne-EuObserver, eya kukuvumela ukuba ufikelele kuzo ngaphandle kweendleko ezongezelelweyo.

Ungaphoswa nantoni na, yiba ngumxhasi kwaye uya kuba nokufikelela kuhlaziyo lweveki ukusuka ngoMeyi.

Silungiselele ingxelo yePDF enamaphepha angaphezu kwe-100 eneenkcukacha ezipheleleyo, esikushiya apha: