I-Vox kunye nePACMA, ithuliswe ngabavoti okanye ngaphandle kweenketho zangempela?

Baninzi abalandeli bethu kwiinethiwekhi zentlalo abasoloko besibuza malunga nokuqhekeka "kwamanye amaqela" xa sipapasha i-poll. Umbuzo awukwazi ukwenza ingqiqo ngakumbi ngamaxesha esiphithiphithi kwinkqubo yemveli yamaqela amabini (nangona "ikwi-coma" ukususela ngo-2013), oko isandulela sokungena kwe-UPyD kwiCongress kwi-2008 (phakathi kwe-bipartisan wave) okanye "ibhomu" yokuvela kwePodemos kunye neepalamente ze-5 zaseYurophu kwi-2014 yonyulo lwaseYurophu. Benza ukuba uninzi lwethu luzibuze ukuba ngaba amaqela amatsha anethuba lokumangaliswa kwiinyanga ezizayo.

Ndijongene nale meko, ulwakhiwo olungaphaya kwepalamente ezifana face o Pacma Basenokuqhubeka ukuze bafumane isihlalo kunyulo oluzayo Unyulo lwaseYurophu/ lukamasipala/luzimele kunye nolonyulo lukazwelonke olulandelayo. Kodwa kunzima ukwazi ukuba yeyiphi inkxaso yakho yokwenyani xa uninzi lwabavoti bengabuzi ngokuthe ngqo malunga nenjongo yakho yokuvota, Ngaba le yimpendulo kwiphulo lothuliso? yolu qulunqo ukuze kuxhamle amaqela emveli Okanye ngaba ngokwenene akukho nto banokuyenza? ukufumana indawo ePalamente?

Kulo lonke eli nqaku siza kuphonononga imvelaphi "yemibutho emitsha" eye yaba ngowokugqibela ukuphumeza ukumelwa, siya kubona ukuba yintoni umfanekiso owenziwe kwii-polls kwiinyanga ngaphambi konyulo kunye nesiphumo abasifumene ekugqibeleni. Okulandelayo siza kuhlalutya ukuba ngaba aba bangaphambili banokuthi badluliselwe kwimeko yangoku kwaye ingaba, ngoko ke, ukubunjwa okutsha kunethuba lokungena kwiipolitiki zaseYurophu naseSpain.

Ityala le-UPyD

Ukungena kwiCongress

Kwi-2008, unyulo jikelele lwenziwa eSpain, unyulo apho Isixa se-PP kunye ne-PSOE sifikelele kwi-84% ngexabiso lokuhla kwenkxaso ye-IU kunye namaqela emveli yobuzwe. Kodwa kuloo meko, iqela elitsha lafumana isihlalo sikaRosa Díez kwiNkongolo yamaSekela: UPyD. Wenza njalo nge-1,19% yeevoti kunye neevoti ze-300.000.

Uphando lwangaphambili

Las unyulo lwamva nje lonyulo Uqikelelo olupapashiweyo luqikelele ezi ziphumo zilandelayo ze-UPyD:

CIS: 0,6%
Abavoti: I-1% (nangona uninzi aluzange lunikeze idatha, nangona kwinqanaba lokugqibela lephulo El Periódico, uLa Vanguardia kunye no-El País bamnika iinketho zokungena kunye nezihlalo ze-0-1).

URosa Díez unika ummangaliso

Emva kokuqulunqa iqela kwiinyanga ezi-6 ngaphambi konyulo emva kokuhlukana ne-PSE, ngaphandle kwamathandabuzo i-UPyD kunye noRosa Díez baya kumgca weendaba zezopolitiko ngokufezekisa eyona nto inzima kakhulu: krwempa isihlalo kumaqela emveli. Kwimeko yakhe, uRosa wakwazi ukungena ngokoyisa umqobo we-3% wevoti kwi-Community of Madrid, igxile kwi-131.000 iivoti kuluntu oluzimeleyo.

Iziphumo eMadrid: 3,76% - 1 isihlalo.
Iziphumo zeSizwe: 1,19%.

ukutenxa kwi-CIS: -49%
Ukutenxa kuvoto: -16%

Ityala lePodemos

"Ukumangaliswa" kwabaseYurophu

Ukungena kwePodemos kwiPalamente yaseYurophu kwi-2014 ngokungathandabuzekiyo ibonise imbali yethu yezopolitiko yakutshanje. Kwaye kude nokufumana isihlalo, Iqela likaPablo Iglesias lifumene izihlalo ezi-5, kufutshane ne-8% yeevoti, ngokuzenzekelayo ukutsibela kwiphepha elingaphambili lazo zonke iindaba zelizwe ukungalindelekanga kwesiphumo esihle kwinto abahlalutyi abaninzi abacinga ngayo ukukhawuleza kokuphela kwemodeli ye-bipartisan Spanish.

Uphando lwangaphambili

Emva kowama-2014 besisele siphawula ngezimvo zethu malunga novoto phambi konyulo lwase-eletomanía, kwaye uninzi lwenu. uze kuxela kwangaphambili -ngempumelelo encinci- into obucinga ukuba iya kwenzeka ekubaleni.

Inyaniso yileyo Nditsho naseLa Sexta bebebheja ngesiphumo esihle sePodemosnge i-poll yakhe yakutshanje kubantu baseYurophu ebonisa ukuba ukubunjwa okumfusa kunokufumana i-MEP eyi-1 kunye ne-1,5% yeevoti, nangona kunjalo umyinge wovoto lwamva nje Baye babeka ezo ze-Iglesias malunga ne-2% -3% kunye nabanye abavoti abafana ne-GAD3 okanye i-SigmaDos ethe yabanyusa ukuya kwi-3,5%:

CIS: 1,8%
Abavoti: 2,5%

Ukuqhushumba kwe-5 MEPs

Ngobusuku be-25 kaMeyi, 2014 samangaliswa sonke xa ujonga loo nto Unyulo aluthathele phantsi utsalo lonyulo ngefoto ka-Iglesias, ongakhange afumane kuphela isihlalo kwiPalamente yaseYurophu, kodwa kwakhona ikwazile ukushukumisa inkqubo yamaqela amabini ngokubonisa ukuba uqulunqo olutsha lungasibekela naliphi na iqela lemveli, kulandela amanyathelo e-UPyD.

Isiphumo: 7,97% - 5 izihlalo.
ukutenxa kwi-CIS: -77,4%
Ukutenxa kwePollster: -68,6%

face y IPACMA

Okwangoku kunzima ukuhlalutya inkxaso yabantu baseSpain kwezi zakhiwo zimbini xa akukho namnye kwabavoti obuza malunga nala maqela. Ayinakubuzwa nophando olupheleleyo lweCIS ngabo.

Kwiinyanga zakutshanje kuye kwaba njalo I-Sociometric yeSpanish ekuphela kwakhe oye wabonakalisa inkxaso awayeza kuyivuna face kunyulo jikelele, ngokumbeka malunga ne-1,5%.

Emva koko, zombini i-Sociometrica kunye ne-SigmaDos yaphula iinkxaso evela kubahlali baseMadrid ukuya eVox nakwiPACMA nge-2 kaMeyi kwiivoti zabo indlela esiyichitha ngayo kukhetho lwethu lonyulo, ukufumana Vox 3,5% yenkxaso yemidiya, kunye I-PACMA 1,6%.

Vox uqikelelo lwesizwe: 1,5%
Uqikelelo lweSizwe lwePACMA: N / A

Qikelela uCom. eMadrid Vox: 3,5%
Estimate Com. I-PACMA yaseMadrid: 1,6%

Vox: kunye neenketho zokwenyani

Ukuba sithelekisa uqikelelo lwenkxaso yeVox kumanqanaba kazwelonke nawengingqi, UVox uya kuba nexesha elilula kakhulu lokungena kwiNkongolo yamaSekela kunye nesihlalo esinye seMadrid ukuphinda ukuvuka kwe-UPyD kwi-2008.

Ngaphezu koko, ukusondela kwabaseYurophu kunye nenkqubo yabo yokumelwa ngokulinganayo kuthetha ukuba ayinakukhutshelwa ngaphandle kokusekwa kwe-Abascal. "Impembelelo yeeCawe" ukuba ikwazile ukutsala iivoti ezingonelisekiyo kwilungelo elibaxhokonxayo phambili kwezopolitiko zelizwe, into enokuthi ngokungathandabuzekiyo ibonelele ngedatha engcono kunyulo luka-2020, kwaye ithathela ingqalelo ukuba I-Sociometrics iqikelela inkxaso ye-5% kwiindawo ezizimeleyo zaseMadrid, ezibanjelwe ecaleni kwaba baseYurophu, ukuze bade bafumane izihlalo kwiNdibano yaseMadrid ukuba Banokumisela urhulumente ozimeleyo waseMadrid kwixesha elizayo, nto leyo eyayiza kubenza badume ngakumbi kwinqanaba likazwelonke.

I-PACMA: isengozini kumazwe aseYurophu

Ngokuchasene noko kwenzekayo ngokubunjwa kwe-Abascal, Iqela lezilwanyana libonakala likude ukuba likwazi ukungena kwiCongress yamaSekela, kunye lEkuphela kwenketho onayo ukufezekisa oku ukuba inkxaso eboniswa yi-polls eMadrid idluliselwe kwinqanaba likazwelonke kunyulo lwaseYurophu, mhlawumbi idibaniswe ne-capitalization "yevoti yokubhikisha" yekhohlo enganelisekanga nge-Unidos Podemos.

Ukuba uyaphumelela, ukungena kwakhe kwiCongress ngo-2020 kuya kuba kufutshane kakhulu, nangona kungenjalo kuya kuba nzima kakhulu kubasebenzi bezilwanyana ukuzisa ilizwi lokukhusela amalungelo ezilwanyana kwiCarrera de San Jerónimo.

Idata engaphezulu ayisoze yanele

Njengoko ubona, kubonakala ngathi Ukungena kweVox kunye nePACMA kwiPalamente yaseYurophu kunye nokudluliselwa kwayo emva koko kwiCongress of Deputies kuxhonywe ngentambo., kodwa kuyinyani ukuba kuya kuba lula kakhulu ukuqikelela umphumo wayo ukuba abavoti babandakanya ukuchithwa kwenkxaso yala maqela phakathi kwedatha yabo.

Ayingombuzo wokuntsonkotha, ngumbuzo wentando, kwaye nokuba siyathanda okanye asithandi iingcamango abazikhuselayo, ukwazi ifoto ehleliyo yabavoti babo akufanele kube yinto yokuzikhethela, ekugqibeleni. ukuba neenyaniso ezimbalwa ezongezelelweyo akukhathazi mntu, idatha ayibalulekanga. Kwaye ngakumbi xa kungekho nto ibhaliweyo kwezopolitiko, kwaye ngubani owaziyo ukuba nayiphi na le mibutho iya kuba neenkwenkwezi kwiiqweqwe zoMeyi 2019 ... okanye hayi.