Kwivoti engenakwenzeka

Makhe sibe nomfanekiso-ngqondweni wophando, epapashwe ngo-Aprili 15 ngumgcini-zimvo. Kwaye cinga ukuba nge-1 kaMeyi inkampani enye ipapasha uphando olutsha, olothusayo ngezi datha:

	IU	INAKO	PSOE	C's	PP
% IVOTI 15 APRILI	6,0%	17,0%	22,0%	15,0%	29,0%
% IVOTI MAY 1	6,0%	22,9%	22,0%	15,2%	22,8%
UKWAHLUKANA	0,0%	5,9%	0,0%	0,2%	-6,2%

Ungafikelela kwesiphi isigqibo? Yicinge oko okomzuzwana ngaphambi kokuba uqhubeke.

Eyona nto ixhaphakileyo iya kuba kukucinga oko:

Kwezi ntsuku zilishumi elinesihlanu kuye kwakho uguquko olumangalisayo: uguquko lokwenyani.
Olu phando alunakwenzeka (okanye lusetyenziswe) kuba lubonisa ukudluliselwa kwamavoti kwi-PP ukuya kwi-Podemos engeyiyo yokwenene, kuba ngamaqela aphikisanayo. Akunakwenzeka ukuba abantu abazizigidi ezibini basuke kwelinye icala baye kwelinye ngeentsuku ezilishumi elinesihlanu, ngelixa yonke enye into ihlala ifana. Basithatha njengezidenge ngokufuna ukuba siyamkele le nto.

Ngaphambi kokuba ufikelele kwizigqibo, kuyimfuneko ukuqonda ukuba ukudluliselwa kwevoti akukho lula, kodwa kunzima. Okulandelayo vSizakubonisa imodeli eyenziwe lula yodluliselo lwevoti phakathi kwamaqela. Siza kuphelisa iingxaki ezinje ngabavoti abatsha, abavoti abaswelekileyo, iivoti ezingenanto, iivoti ezingenanto kunye neevoti zamaqela amancinane. Asiyi kuchukumisa nayiphi na loo nto. Ukuba sithathele ingqalelo zonke ezi zinto, iziphumo ezingaqhelekanga ngakumbi zinokuthetheleleka. Kodwa akuyomfuneko. Siza kuhlala kunye neskimu esilula apho kukho ukudluliselwa kuphela phakathi kwamaqela amakhulu amahlanu kunye nokuyeka.

Makhe sizame ukufumana enye indlela. Ingaba idatha evela kolu phando mibini ingadibana njani? Makhe sicinge ngetheyibhile yodluliselo lwevoti olungaphezulu okanye olunengqiqo. Umzekelo, oku:

UTSHINTSHO UKUSUKA NGE-15 APRILI UKUYA NGE-1 MEYI	IU	INAKO	PSOE	C's	PP	UKUNGQONDO
UI ukuya	89%	11%	0%	0%	0%	0%
SINGA	0%	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%
PSOE ukuya	0%	2%	86%	2%	0%	10%
C'S a	0%	0%	3%	82%	0%	15%
PP a	0%	0%	0%	0%	77%	23%
ABSTENTION ukuya	1%	8%	4%	4%	0%	83%

Nge-Excel elula unokwakha le modeli kwaye wenze zonke iinguqu ozifunayo. Icala kwitheyibhile engentla liyingcinga ethile kuphela evumela ukuba idatha ukususela ngo-Ephreli 15 ukuya ku-Meyi 1 iguqulwe. Kodwa umfundi unokuzama nantoni na ayifunayo ngokwakhe, kwaye uya kubona ukuba imiphumo iyamangalisa.

Kwenzeka ntoni, ngokutsho kwalo mzekelo, phakathi kwe-15 ka-Epreli ne-1 kaMeyi?

Isiganeko esinye esivusayo sanele: umzekelo, ukuba iqela kwelinye icala letafile (masiyibize ngokuba yiPP) liye laphoxeka ngokukhawuleza, ngenxa yokuxhatshazwa kwamahlazo, inxalenye yabavoti bayo, abagqiba ekubeni bayeke (nangona kunjalo, igcina ngaphezu kweekota ezintathu. yabo ).

Amaqela aphambili (masiwabize ngee-Cs kunye ne-PSOE), kwelawo icala, agqibele edinisa abanye abavoti ngezivumelwano zabo ezisileleyo, ngoko ke iqaqobana labavoti lijike lila, kwaye abanye abambalwa, abona bantu basekhohlo, bajike barhoxa. kwiqela elona lasekhohlo. Kukho kwakhona ukudluliselwa okuncinci phakathi kwabo.

Kwelinye icala, amaqela amabini asekhohlo awachaphazeleki, kwaye agcina bonke abavoti bawo ngeli xesha. Nangona kunjalo, ngokusondela konyulo, inxalenye encinci yeqela elincinci (UP) liya kwelona likhulu (Vamos), ngokusebenzisa indlela yokuvota eluncedo.

Ekugqibeleni, abanye abantu abangafuniyo ukuvota, behlazekile ngenxa yorhwaphilizo olubhengeziweyo, ekugqibeleni bagqiba kwelokuba baye kuvota, ingakumbi elona qela lidlamkileyo ngasekhohlo.

Into ebalulekileyo kukuqonda oko kwenzekayo ngeziphumo zokugqibela: qonda ukuba ukunyakaza kokugqibela kuhlala kuyimpembelelo edibeneyo yokudluliselwa okuncinci kakhulu. Kwimeko yethu, umphumo utshintshile kwipanorama, okwenza umdlalo wesithathu, kwiintsuku ezilishumi elinesihlanu, ufezekise ukucaphuka kabini kwaye ube ngowokuqala. Uguquko oluyinyani oluya kuthi wonke umntu alugqamise njengento emangalisayo kwaye engakholelekiyo.

Kutheni le nto ibonakala ingakholeleki kuthi? Kutheni le nto singakuboni ngokucacileyo oku kudluliselwa? Ngesizathu esifanayo sokuba asiboni imikhosi esebenza kwinqwelomoya okanye imoto, kodwa kuphela umphumo wabo wokugqibela.

Iinzululwazi zentlalo azikho i-physics elula, ngokuqinisekileyo, kodwa ngeendlela ezithile zifana, kwaye imigaqo yazo iyafana: izizathu kunye nemiphumo.

Xa i-pollster ipapasha idatha yayo, Izinto ezichaza utshintsho aziboniswa kumfundi, Ngendlela efanayo naxa umntu okhwela inqwelo-moya engaziqondi izinto ezahlukahlukeneyo ezisebenza kuye, mhlawumbi akakhathali. Ekuphela kwento ayifunayo kukuba ibhabhe. Oko umfundi akubonayo kukuba kukho ukudluliselwa kweevoti ukusuka kwelinye icala lezopolitiko ukuya kwelinye, elibonakala lingenangqondo. Kodwa awuyiboni loo nto Amandla amaninzi aphakathi ahambelanayo (okanye achasayo) adibanisa ukukhokelela kwisiphumo esisodwa sokugqibela, ngendlela efanayo, kwi-physics, xa amandla amaninzi ahlukeneyo asebenza kunye emzimbeni, umphumo unokuba yintshukumo enye ye-rectilinear, ebonakala ilula kunye nesiphumo samandla omnye.

Nangona konke oku kubonakala kuyimfihlakalo, akukho mfihlakalo. Kumzekelo wethu akuzange kubekho ukudluliselwa kweevoti phakathi kwePP kunye nePodemos, kodwa kunokudluliselwa okuphakathi kunye nokuyeka. Kakade ke, amanani athile ayimveliso yokwenza amanani adityaniswe. Kodwa umgaqo asekelwe kuwo uyinto yokwenene. Iintshukumo ngesiquphe zabavoti zisemva kweenguqu ezininzi, kwaye phantse azichazwa kakuhle kuba itheyibhile yodluliselo lwevoti phantse ayifumaneki.

Lumka, kuba Yiloo nto kanye enokwenzeka kwiinyanga ezimbini ezizayo., ukuba kukho unyulo ngowama-26-J. Iintshukumo ezincinci ngaxeshanye zinokubangela iinyikima zokwenyani. Kwinqaku elipapashwe kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo, u-Iván Redondo wathetha ngaye ifuthe lebhabhathane elinokuthi liqalise umanyano phakathi kwePodemos kunye ne-IU. Yinyani. Kodwa asikuphela kwento enokwenzeka. Ezinye iintshukumo ezininzi zinokuvela: akukho nto iya kuba yile nto ibonakala ngathi. Kwaye ukuguqulwa okumangalisayo kunokuvela apho bekulindeleke kancinci. Qaphela ngezigqibo ezikhawulezayo, kuba ngokuqinisekileyo ziya kuba ziphosakele: inyaniso esisiseko ihlala iyinkimbinkimbi.

@josesalver