22M, Awọn idibo Ẹka ni Ilu Faranse: Ayẹwo ti ipo naa.

Awọn iwadi akọkọ ti a tẹjade laipẹ (CSA, Opinion Way, Harris Interactive ati Odoxa, gbogbo lati Oṣu Kẹta Ọjọ 4 si 6) sọ asọtẹlẹ imudogba nla laarin awọn idibo idibo Faranse mẹta fun Awọn Idibo Ẹka ti o sunmọ, ni Oṣu Kẹta Ọjọ 22 (ni iyipo 1st).

Apa osi yoo jẹ ti PS, FG, EE-LV, PRG ati awọn ẹgbẹ kekere miiran ati awọn oludije ominira. Bọki ọtun aarin nipasẹ UMP, UDI, MoDem ati awọn miiran. FN ṣafihan ararẹ nikan ni o fẹrẹ to gbogbo awọn cantons, ni idojukọ awọn ireti nla rẹ si ariwa (Picardie ati Pas de Calais) ati Mẹditarenia (Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ati Languedoc-Roussillon).

Ni ọpọlọpọ igba o ṣoro lati gba iranran orilẹ-ede niwon awọn ajọṣepọ ni ipele agbegbe jẹ ọpọlọpọ ati orisirisi.

Ikopa ti a nireti jẹ kekere pupọ, ni ayika 43% (CSA 42%, IFOP 43% ati Ọna Ero 44%). Eyi yoo tumọ si pe ni 2nd, ati ipari, yika ni Oṣu Kẹta Ọjọ 29, o fẹrẹ jẹ pe gbogbo awọn “duels” yoo wa laarin awọn ipa meji akọkọ, nitori pe ki o le jẹ “triangular” (oludije kẹta) o jẹ dandan pe o jẹ dandan. kọja 12,5, 1% ti ikaniyan ni yika 30st, iyẹn ni, ni ayika XNUMX% ti awọn ibo (ohun kan idiju fun ẹgbẹ kẹta).

Yi ayidayida waleyin, a priori, awọn FN ati aarin-ọtun, niwon osi han Elo siwaju sii pin (ni 25% ti awọn cantons ti won mu 3 tabi diẹ ẹ sii ti o yatọ awọn akojọ), ati ki o le ko ni oludije ninu awọn 2nd yika ni ọpọlọpọ awọn ibiti. .

Imọran sisọ miiran fun iyipo keji ni a pese nipasẹ Harris Interative:

Ni iṣẹlẹ ti awọn duels laarin FN ati awọn oludije PS, 15% ti awọn olufowosi UMP fẹ ki ẹgbẹ wọn beere fun Idibo fun FN, ni akawe si 14% ti o yan pe wọn beere fun ibo fun PS (iwaju ijọba olominira). 16% fẹ ki wọn beere fun ibo ṣofo ati 55% fẹ pe ko si ilana fun.

Ni iṣẹlẹ ti awọn duels laarin awọn oludije FN ati UMP, 70% ti awọn alamọdaju socialist fẹ ki ẹgbẹ wọn ṣe atilẹyin oludije UMP, 2% pe wọn ṣe atilẹyin oludije FN, 8% pe ibo ṣofo ni a beere ati 20% pe ko si ilana ti a fun .

Odaxa tun pese awọn itọkasi fun iyipo keji.

Ni awọn duels FN-UMP, awọn awujọ awujọ yoo yọkuro 52% fun UMP ati 8% fun FN, 40% yoo yago fun. UMP yoo ni 65% ti atilẹyin ti awọn oludibo FG.

Ni awọn duels FN-PS, awọn Konsafetifu yoo dibo 28% fun FN ati 27% fun PS. 45% yoo fẹ lati yago fun. PS yoo ni 70% ti atilẹyin ti awọn oludibo FG.

Ninu awọn duels UMP-PS, awọn oludibo FN yoo jade 50% fun UMP ati 5% fun PS.

Pẹlu awọn itọkasi wọnyi, o le ṣe asọtẹlẹ pe UMP yoo ṣẹgun ni nọmba awọn aṣoju, pẹlu iyatọ pupọ lori PS. Aimọ ti o tobi julọ ni mimọ iye FN yoo gba.

Fuentes:

• http://www.csa.eu/multimedia/data/sondages/data2015/opi20150304-csa-bfmtv-les-elections-departementales.pdf
• http://www.lepoint.fr/departementales-2015/departementales-un-sondage-place-l-ump-udi-devant-le-fn-06-03-2015-1910869_2471.php
• http://www.harrisinteractive.fr/news/2015/09032015.asp
• http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/politique/departementales-un-nouveau-sondage-place-le-fn-en-tete_1659239.html
• http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/810-1-document_file.pdf