Nigbati idije fun Alakoso Amẹrika dabi ẹni pe o pinnu ni pato nipasẹ Hillary Clinton, ọpọlọpọ awọn iṣẹlẹ ti jẹ ki oludije Democratic silẹ ni olokiki ati Republikani lati dide si oju iṣẹlẹ ti tai imọ-ẹrọ ninu eyiti, loni, Trump n ṣe itọsọna nitori ti awọn Key States.
Awọn swans ti ipolongo
Lẹhin 11/XNUMX ati [ọna asopọ si idaji AEDE kii yoo han lati yago fun awọn iṣoro ofin (oṣuwọn Google)], ṣii ariyanjiyan nipa ilera rẹd ti jẹ ki awọn ti ko ni ipinnu ni iyemeji nipa agbara rẹ lati ṣe olori orilẹ-ede fun ọdun mẹrin to nbọ. Fun apakan rẹ, Trump ti bere a media ajo fifihan oju ọrẹ tabi ọrẹ ti o mu ki o sunmọ ọdọ awọn oludibo rẹ, eyiti, pẹlu atilẹyin ti awọn ọta oloselu nla bi Ted Cruz, ti tumọ si. a didn fun nyin ipolongo.
Awọn rudurudu aipẹ ni Charlotte fi aaye han lori awọn oludije ati Trump lo anfani rẹ nipa lilo anfani ti nini iduro iduroṣinṣin lori iṣelu ti orilẹ-ede (tabi “ikun irin”) ni akawe si ifunra iwọntunwọnsi Hillary.
Awọn Jomitoro ati awọn Key States
Ni owurọ yii ariyanjiyan akọkọ tẹlifisiọnu akọkọ waye laarin awọn oludije meji, ni oju iṣẹlẹ kan ninu eyiti ọpọlọpọ awọn ipinlẹ golifu yatọ lati ẹgbẹ kan si ekeji da lori awọn ọjọ ati awọn oludibo, ati nibiti ibi-afẹde akọkọ ti awọn oludije mejeeji gbọdọ jẹ lati ṣetọju anfani tabi “dabobo” awọn ipinlẹ ti, ni ọran. ti isonu, nwọn si fi si awọn miiran ohun unattainable poju bi daradara bi yiyo oludibo lati laarin awọn undecided ti o gba ọkan ninu awọn wọnyi States lati yi papa.
para ipè o jẹ pataki lati darí ni Oṣu kọkanla ọjọ 8 ni Awọn ipinlẹ atẹle lati de Ile White:
- Ohio
- Florida
- Arizona
- Ariwa Carolina
Hillary gbọdọ jẹ julọ dibo ni ọjọ idibo ni awọn ipinlẹ wọnyi:
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- New Hampshire
- Pennsylvania
- United
- Nevada
- Virginia
Ni ibamu si aropin ti awọn ibo tuntun ti a tẹjade, Trump yoo ti ni aabo Awọn ipinlẹ Key mẹrin rẹ lakoko Hillary yoo tọju gbogbo wọn ayafi Nevada ati Colorado, nibiti Trump yoo ṣe itọsọna nipasẹ diẹ ati, nitorinaa, le ṣaṣeyọri Alakoso.
Asa awọn ipinle ti Ohio (nibiti enikeni ti o ba bori maa n wole si Aare), Colorado ati Florida Wọn ti jẹ ipinnu (jẹ ki a maṣe gbagbe ija ikẹhin laarin Bush ati Gore ti o pinnu Florida lẹhin igbasilẹ itanjẹ ati ariyanjiyan lẹhin ọjọ idibo) ati Loni gbogbo awọn mẹta dabi lati ṣe ojurere Trump.
Jẹ diẹ sii ipè ti wa ni oludije Oloṣelu ijọba olominira akọkọ ninu itan-akọọlẹ lati ṣe itọsọna idibo ni kutukutu ni Florida, nibiti oludije Democratic ti ṣẹgun nipasẹ awọn ibo 120.000, nitorinaa o dabi pe awọn tẹtẹ "súfèé ti America" lori Republikani.
Awọn ibo naa
Awọn iwadi ti ṣe agbejade data ti o yatọ julọ, biotilejepe o jẹ otitọ pe Ni awọn ọjọ aipẹ awọn oludije yiyan ti n padanu ina ati pe iyẹn n mu Awọn Oloṣelu ijọba olominira ati Awọn Oloṣelu ijọba olominira sunmọ papọ, botilẹjẹpe media tọka si awọn abajade oriṣiriṣi (Fox News fa si ọna ipè nigba ti CNN tẹra si Hillary).
Loni awọn CNN ti tu silẹ iwadi iṣaaju-ọrọ ti o sọrọ ti tai imọ-ẹrọ kan ni ipele ti orilẹ-ede.
Wọn tun ti gba wọn niyanju lati ṣe asọtẹlẹ ohun ti o ṣẹlẹ ninu Pennsylvania y United:
Koko ọrọ ni pe Ṣiṣayẹwo apapọ awọn idibo titi di oni, Hillary ṣe asiwaju ere-ije naa pero O jẹ awọn ipinlẹ golifu ti o ṣe iyatọ, niwọn bi apapọ awọn idibo ṣe samisi Awọn ipinlẹ ti o ni idaniloju fun oludije kọọkan, nlọ 175 Congressmen ni afẹfẹ ti o, bi ti oni, Wọn jẹ Republikani diẹ sii ju Awọn alagbawi ijọba olominira, bi a ti fọ ni oke ati eyiti yoo jẹ deede si awọn ipinlẹ ti a ṣe afihan ni grẹy ni aworan yii:
Ṣugbọn ni oju iṣẹlẹ iyipada yii, eyikeyi iyatọ kekere ni a ṣe ayẹwo si millimeter nipasẹ awọn alakoso ipolongo ti ẹgbẹ mejeeji lati gbiyanju lati ṣawari bi o ṣe le ṣe iwọntunwọnsi si ẹgbẹ wọn. Iwọnyi ni awọn ibo tuntun fun Ipinle kọọkan:
ọjọ | Orisun Idibo | Office | Location | awọn esi | asiwaju | ||
Oṣu Kẹsan-26 | CNN/ORC | Aare | Pennsylvania | Clinton | 50 | 3 | |
ipè | 47 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-26 | Awọn atupale JMC | Aare | Louisiana | ipè | 45 | 10 | |
Clinton | 35 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-26 | Ile-iwe giga Point | Aare | North Carolina | Clinton | 43 | 1 | |
ipè | 42 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-26 | Ile-iwe Loras | Aare | Iowa | ipè | 38 | tai | |
Clinton | 38 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-26 | CNN/ORC | Aare | United | Clinton | 49 | 2 | |
ipè | 47 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-26 | Ile-ẹkọ giga Christopher Newport. | Aare | Virginia | Clinton | 48 | 10 | |
ipè | 38 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-26 | Cherry Communications | Aare | Florida | Clinton | 45 | 3 | |
ipè | 42 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-25 | Ile-iṣẹ Iwadi UNH | Aare | Maine | Clinton | 40 | 4 | |
ipè | 36 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-25 | SurveyUSA | Aare | Minnesota | Clinton | 49 | 6 | |
ipè | 43 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-25 | YouGov/CBS iroyin | Aare | Missouri | ipè | 46 | 9 | |
Clinton | 37 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-23 | Iwadi GQR | Aare | Nevada | Clinton | 49 | 3 | |
ipè | 46 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-23 | Iwadi GQR | Aare | Ohio | ipè | 46 | tai | |
Clinton | 46 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-23 | Awọn atupale JMC | Aare | Georgia | ipè | 44 | 6 | |
Clinton | 38 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-22 | Emerson College | Aare | Illinois | Clinton | 49 | 12 | |
ipè | 37 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-22 | Hendrix College | Aare | Arkansas | ipè | 55 | 21 | |
Clinton | 34 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-22 | Ile-iwe Goucher | Aare | Maryland | Clinton | 58 | 33 | |
ipè | 25 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-22 | Emerson College | Aare | Wisconsin | Clinton | 45 | 7 | |
ipè | 38 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-21 | PPIC | Aare | California | Clinton | 47 | 16 | |
ipè | 31 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-21 | Ile-ẹkọ giga monmouth | Aare | New Hampshire | Clinton | 47 | 9 | |
ipè | 38 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-21 | Iwadi DFM | Aare | Wyoming | ipè | 54 | 35 | |
Clinton | 19 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-20 | Ile-iwe Siena | Aare | Niu Yoki | Clinton | 51 | 21 | |
ipè | 30 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-20 | Iwadi DFM | Aare | North Dakota | ipè | 43 | 11 | |
Clinton | 32 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-18 | Laipẹ Idibo | Aare | Oklahoma | ipè | 51 | 15 | |
Clinton | 36 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-15 | Apọju-MRA | Aare | Michigan | Clinton | 42 | 4 | |
ipè | 38 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-15 | Texas Lyceum | Aare | Texas | ipè | 42 | 6 | |
Clinton | 36 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-14 | Ẹgbẹ Trafalgar | Aare | South Carolina | ipè | 53 | 15 | |
Clinton | 38 | ||||||
Oṣu Kẹsan-14 | WBUR | Aare | Massachusetts | Clinton | 60 | 29 | |
ipè | 31 | ||||||
09-oṣu kejila | Dan Jones & Assoc. | Aare | Utah | ipè | 39 | 15 | |
Clinton | 24 | ||||||
09-oṣu kejila | SurveyUSA | Aare | Kansas | ipè | 48 | 12 | |
Clinton | 36 | ||||||
09-Oṣu kọkanla | NBC News/WSJ/Marist | Aare | Arizona | ipè | 42 | 1 | |
Clinton | 41 | ||||||
09-Oṣu Kẹsan | WHR / Howey Iselu | Aare | Indiana | ipè | 43 | 7 | |
Clinton | 36 | ||||||
09-Keje | Emerson College | Aare | New Jersey | Clinton | 47 | 4 | |
ipè | 43 | ||||||
09-Keje | Emerson College | Aare | Connecticut | Clinton | 50 | 15 | |
ipè | 35 | ||||||
09-Keje | Emerson College | Aare | Rhode Island | Clinton | 44 | 3 | |
ipè | 41 | ||||||
09-Keje | Emerson College | Aare | Vermont | Clinton | 47 | 21 | |
ipè | 26 | ||||||
09-Keje | DHM Iwadi | Aare | Oregon | Clinton | 38 | 13 | |
ipè | 25 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Alabama | ipè | 57 | 21 | |
Clinton | 36 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Hawaii | Clinton | 58 | 30 | |
ipè | 28 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Mississippi | ipè | 48 | 2 | |
Clinton | 46 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | New Mexico | Clinton | 51 | 14 | |
ipè | 37 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | West Virginia | ipè | 57 | 24 | |
Clinton | 33 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Alaska | ipè | 47 | 8 | |
Clinton | 39 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Idaho | ipè | 53 | 19 | |
Clinton | 34 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Montana | ipè | 51 | 13 | |
Clinton | 38 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | South Dakota | ipè | 51 | 14 | |
Clinton | 37 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Washington | Clinton | 53 | 16 | |
ipè | 37 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Delaware | Clinton | 50 | 14 | |
ipè | 36 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Kentucky | ipè | 57 | 23 | |
Clinton | 34 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Nebraska | ipè | 49 | 11 | |
Clinton | 38 | ||||||
09-Jun | Washington Post / Monkey iwadi | Aare | Tennessee | ipè | 55 | 18 | |
Clinton | 37 |
Hillary ti nlo awọn miliọnu dọla lori ipolowo media fun awọn oṣu Ibaraẹnisọrọ (nipa $ 4 bilionu ni to šẹšẹ ọsẹ) nigba ti Trump ti lo anfani ti ariyanjiyan agbegbe rẹ lati ṣe igbelaruge ararẹ (toje ni ọjọ ti ko han ni gbogbo awọn media fun idi kan) ati bayi bẹrẹ lati nawo ni ipolowo lati tan ifiranṣẹ rẹ (o jẹ ifoju pe O ti lo "ẹrin" $ 200.000 kan).
Ohun ti o han ni pe loni a yoo lọ si iṣẹlẹ alailẹgbẹ kan ni ariyanjiyan nibiti Eyikeyi oludije le jiya ifẹhinti idibo. nipa idari bi feints ti tireness Ninu ọran ti Hillary tabi ibinu lọrọ ẹnu ni irú ti ipè.
Gbogbo orilẹ-ede yoo wo ni pẹkipẹki ohun ti ariyanjiyan alẹ oni mu wa ti o le yi ohun gbogbo pada, ati pe o le ṣe lati oju opo wẹẹbu wa, pẹlu iwiregbe ifiwe fun awọn owiwi alẹ;).
Ero rẹ
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