IWAJU IDIBO NI ISRAEL

Ikede Netanyahu ni ana ti itusilẹ isunmọ ti Knesset, Ile Awọn Aṣoju ti Israeli nikan, ati ipe ti o tẹle fun awọn idibo kutukutu ni oṣu mẹta, jẹ iṣaju si imuduro ti orilẹ-ede julọ ati awọn ipo apa ọtun ni iṣelu Israeli.

Ni akọkọ, awọn idibo tuntun yoo jẹ iṣakoso nipasẹ awọn ayipada tuntun ti iṣeto ni eto idibo, eyiti o gbe aaye lati wọle si Knesset lati 2% si 3,25%. Kii ṣe ilosoke aifiyesi, fun pe ninu awọn idibo ti tẹlẹ nibẹ ni ọpọlọpọ awọn ẹgbẹ ni aarin yẹn: Hadash, Balad ati Kadima, ati nipasẹ awọn irun ti Akojọ Arab Arab, bakannaa jẹ ki o ṣoro fun awọn ẹgbẹ bii Otzma tabi Ale Yarok lati wọle si. .

Gbogbo awọn asọtẹlẹ aipẹ sọ asọtẹlẹ dide laarin awọn ẹgbẹ ẹsin pataki ati ẹtọ Israeli. Wọn tun sọ asọtẹlẹ isubu didasilẹ ti ẹgbẹ ifihan ti 2013, Yesh Atid, aarin-ọtun ṣugbọn alailesin, ati ipadanu ti centrist Kadima.

Ni ana, ni ibamu pẹlu ikede itusilẹ ti iyẹwu naa, awọn iwadii meji ti o kẹhin ni a gbejade, ti Ibanisọrọ y midgame, lori awọn ikanni TV 10 ati 2 lẹsẹsẹ, eyiti awọn abajade rẹ jẹ (abajade ninu awọn idibo iṣaaju ti ṣafikun ni awọn akọmọ):

• Ile Yewish (apa ọtun orilẹ-ede): 17 (12)
• United Torah Judaism (ọtun ẹsin): 8 (7)
• Shas (Ìfẹ́ orílẹ̀-èdè Ju): 7-9 (11)
• Ysrael Beitenu (ọtun): 10-12 (13)
• Moshe Kahlon (Alakoso Likud, ọtun): 10-12 (tuntun)
• Likud (ọtun): 22 (18)
• Yes Atid (apa ọtun aarin): 9 (19)
• Kadima (aarin): 0 (2)
• Hatnuah (aarin osi): 4 (6)
• Ẹgbẹ Labour (Social Democrat): 13 (15)
• Meretz (Social Democrat): 7 (6)
• Hadash/UAL/Balad (osi, Larubawa): 9-11 (11)

Ni aṣa, atẹjade Israeli n duro lati ṣajọpọ awọn ẹgbẹ si awọn ẹgbẹ nla meji, ni apa kan ti orilẹ-ede ati / tabi ẹtọ ẹsin ati ni apa keji aarin-osi alailesin (botilẹjẹpe awọn ẹgbẹ ominira wa pẹlu nibi niwọn igba ti wọn jẹ alailesin) . Ni ọdun 2013 ẹtọ naa gba awọn aṣoju 61 lakoko ti aarin-osi 59. Aafo ti awọn aṣoju 2 nikan yoo yipada ni pataki, ni ibamu si awọn asọtẹlẹ wọnyi, nitori ẹtọ yoo de awọn aṣoju 76-78 ni akawe si 42-44 fun aarin-osi, ti samisi. aaye laarin wọn lati 32 si 36 awọn aṣoju.

Ijọba iṣaaju jẹ awọn ẹgbẹ lati awọn aaye mejeeji: Likud, Ysrael Beitenu, Yesh Atid ati Hatnuah. Eyi tuntun yoo dajudaju wa ni apa ọtun, ti a ṣẹda ni ayika Likud, Ile Yewish, Ysrael Beitenu ati Moshe Kahlon, ti yoo ni atilẹyin lọpọlọpọ lati ṣe ijọba. Nọmba ti Prime Minister, Netanhayu, ko ni ibeere ni akoko yii.

http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/12/02/dialogchannel-10-poll-likud-22-bayit-yehudi-17-labor-13-yisrael-beitenu-12-kachlon-12-yesh-atid-9/

http://knessetjeremy.com/2014/12/02/channel-2midgam-poll-likud-22-bayit-yehudi-17-labor-13-yisrael-beitenu-10-kachlon-10-yesh-atid-9-shas-9/