I-2 × 1: I-Great Confluence izoba isehluleki

Namuhla, ngo-April 2016, i-Podemos kanye nokuhlangana kwayo ku-18-19% yamavoti (amaphuzu amabili phezulu, amaphuzu amabili phansi). I-Izquierda Unida kufanele ibe cishe ku-6-7%, ne-margin efanayo.

Lokho kusho, kwabanye, ukuthi ukuhlangana phakathi kwalaba ababili kuzothola kalula amavoti angama-25%. Uma singawakholelwa ama-poll, ngoba siyaqonda ukuthi, njengoba kwenzeka ku-20-D, abawabukeli phansi ama-Podemos, inyunyana ne-Izquierda Unida empeleni ingaba ngamavoti angama-30%.

Ebhekene nesimemezelo senhlangano engase ibe khona ne-Izquierda Unida, abanye abalandeli be-Podemos bajabule. Ukuhlangana kwalaba ababili kuyizindaba ezinhle, bathi, ngoba kuzoba umdlalo wesibili, mhlawumbe owokuqala, eSpain. Lungela, Mariano, ngoba ngoJuni bazokwembula...

Kuyatuswa ukuthi upholise kancane umkhuhlane wethemba elihlasela abanye, unikeze idatha evela eqinisweni. Isimo sezombangazwe sifana ne-ecosystem, lapho izinhlobo ezahlukene (amaqembu) ziqhudelana khona ngokuqongelela isikhala esiningi ngangokunokwenzeka, ukuqinisekisa ukusinda, okokuqala, nokwanda, kamuva, kubantu abayingxenye yohlobo ngalunye.

Uhlelo olwenziwe lula lwe-ecosystem yezepolitiki luhlanganisa ukulihlukanisa libe “yizindawana” eziyi-11. I-Niche "0" izoba kwesokunxele ngokweqile, futhi "10" izoba kwesokudla ngokwedlulele. Kwezinye izindawo, cishe iqembu elilodwa kuphela elizuza amavoti (isibonelo, i-PP ku-“8”), kodwa kwezinye, amaqembu amaningana ayangena emqhudelwaneni onzima (isibonelo, i-PSOE ne-Ciudadanos kokuthi “5”, noma i-PP kanye ne-Ciudadanos kokuthi “ 6”). Iqembu ngalinye lizama ukufinyelela ezindaweni eziningana, likhuthazelela ukuncintisana okuncane ngangokunokwenzeka. kulowo nalowo wabo.

Ngaphansi kwalezo zimo, I-Podemos imele ukuzibophezela okuhlukahlukene: iqembu, empeleni, lingafinyelela kuzo zonke izindawo zokhetho. Yize abavoti abaningi bePodemos sebekhomba ngokusobala ngakwesobunxele, iqembu lisadonsa kanzima ukuze liziveze njengokunye. Yiqembu lezinguquko, iqembu lalabo abangezansi, iqembu elilwa nesigaba sezombangazwe... Isu likaPodemos lihlakaniphile, futhi nakuba ngokuvamile lingazange lithele izithelo eziningi, lakha isithombe esinamandla somkhiqizo. Kwenzeka okufanayo odabeni lobuzwe: liziveza njengeqembu laseSpain, lithi lifuna iSpain ihlale injengoba injalo, kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo ivikela ilungelo lokuzikhethela ukuzikhethela, ngaleyo ndlela izama ukuthatha i-niches ngokwesiko. kubekelwe abavoti bezwe. Ukuguquguquka ngendlela emsulwa, nakho.

I-Izquierda Unida iyinto ehluke ngokuphelele. Kuyiphathi yesigaba esidala, esinamasiko aso kwesokunxele kanye namazwe ngamazwe. Imiphumela yayo yokhetho ibilokhu inesizotha, yingakho ngezinye izikhathi iye yasongela ukweqa, ukugqoka izingubo zemvelo noma ubuzwe, ukuzama ukuzivumelanisa nokungahambi kahle kwezinhlangano zomphakathi. Kodwa lokho akuvimbi ukulebula kwayo ukuthi kufane nokuhlala njalo: Ishiywe, ihlanzekile kwesokunxele, ngaphandle kwama-nuances. Yilokho ingqikithi yayo. Ezinyangeni ezedlule uphinde wathola impahla entsha: umholi okhangayo, uGarzón, ukuthi akashiswanga njengabanye ohlelweni lwezingxoxo zikahulumeni omusha, nokuthi ubonakala ehambisana futhi ethembekile. Abavoti bayaklonyeliswa ngakho konke lokhu, okwenza ukuthi amathemba abo okhetho anyuke ngokusobala.

Ukube kunokhetho manje bese i-Izquierda Unida izingenela yodwa, ngabe isesimweni sokuthola amasekela ezifundazweni ezimbalwa. Abaningi bathi ingadlula amasekela ayi-10. Ukusuka lapho, amaphesenti amabili nje engeziwe amavoti azomyisa ezihlalweni ezingamashumi amabili.

Y Kumanje nje ukufakwa kwakhe ezingxoxweni zePodemos kucatshangelwa. I-Podemos okusobala ukuthi ingamandla esithathu, uma kungewona owesine, ihlose ukunamathela kunkanyezi kaGarzón ukuze, ngokuyigona, ilulame. Ukunyakaza, ngaphandle kokungabaza, kunakho konke okunengqondo emhlabeni Pablo Iglesias, ukuthi Ngokusobala unezimpikiswano eziqinile zokukholisa.

Ndawonye, ​​i-Podemos kanye ne-Izquierda Unida bangafisa ukuwina izihlalo kuzo zonke izifundazwe ngaphandle kwe-Ceuta ne-Melilla, into engeke ifinyeleleke uma behamba ngokuhlukana. Ndawonye, ​​uNorma D'Hont wayezothatha uhlangothi lwakhe, futhi bangadlula i-PSOE ngisho ne-PP.

Kodwa lokhu kuhlaziya kulula kakhulu ngoba kulishaya indiva iqiniso eliyisisekelo. Masikhumbule ukuthi kwipolitiki okukhulunywa ngakho wukufinyelela kuqala bese kubanjwa amavoti ahlukene. Kusho ukuthi Kwezombangazwe okubili nokubili akulingani nane, kodwa kunalokho kuhlanganisa nokuncane kakhulu. Kungani?

Ngoba Kulezo zindawo lapho amaqembu womabili eqhudelana khona abavoti, inyunyana ngeke ibanike elinye ivoti elilodwa. futhi yebo, esikhundleni salokho, ingasusa okunye. Kuma-niches "0" kuya ku-"3" womabili amaqembu athatha izikhundla zawo eziqine kakhulu. I-Podemos isinda kakhulu kune-Izquierda Unida kuzo zonke, kodwa ukuba khona kohlangothi lukaGarzón kubalulekile. Kungenzeka kanjani? Kwenzeka kanjani ukuthi, ngokuba namandla ngokuphawulekayo, i-Podemos ayikwazanga ukuchoboza ngokuphelele i-Izquierda Unida kunoma yimaphi amaphuzu ebhodini? Kungani i-Podemos ingazange ikwazi ukwenza nge-IU lokho uCiudadanos akwenza nge-UPyD?

Ngoba I-Izquierda Unida inikeza inani elengeziwe engakwazi ukulifinyelela. ukubaluleka kweqembu elinomlando wokulandelana kanye nokuhambisana komlando (kulabo abalivotelayo), manje eliqiniswe ngobuntu obusha futhi obubhekwa kahle.

Umvoti we-United Left, kuleli qophelo, kungenxa yokuqiniseka. Uma ungawavoteli amaPodemo yingoba awufuni, ngoba akumkholisi. Ngezinye izikhathi kungenxa yokuthi ucasulwa izindlela zabo noma izimo zabo zengqondo.

Ngakho-ke, Inyunyana phakathi kwamabutho womabili ingabangela ukuhlubuka kwengxenye ebalulekile yabavoti be-Izquierda Unida. Ukuthi lawa angama-20%, angama-30% noma angama-40% amavoti omfelandawonye kusazobonakala. Kodwa ukuthi kukhona abangaba abavoti be-United Left abazogcina begobile noma bajoyine i-PSOE ngemuva kokuhlangana, yinto enganqatshelwa kuphela ekubeni msulwa kwezepolitiki.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, Kukhona uhlobo lwabavoti bePodemos abangeke bajabule kakhulu nalokhu kuhlangana. Ungumvoti esingambiza ngokuthi “u-transversal.” Le ngxenye ye-Podemos yayibaluleke kakhulu ekuqaleni kwayo futhi isasebenza nanamuhla. Ungumvoti ocikwe yinkohlakalo, ukungasebenzi, kumele afuduke, azizwe esetshenziswa noma echotshoziwe. Ayikona ikakhulukazi okokunxele futhi ayipolitiki. Ufuna ukugqashula kulokho uPablo Iglesias ayekubiza kahle ngaleso sikhathi ngokuthi “isigaba.” Kulowo mvoti, i-Izquierda Unida iyingxenye yalelo qembu elidala. Kulowo mvoti, i-Podemos ilahlekelwa ukuthandeka nobusha lapho ibhangqwe nayo. Ngeke futhi sazi ukuthi bangaki abavoti be-Podemos abangalahleka uma ukuhlangana kufinyelelwa, noma ngabe bangu-5%, 10% noma u-15% wengqikithi. Kodwa bakhona.

Ekugcineni, Ikhono lokuthola amavoti ngaphandle kokuhlangana libonakala lingenamsebenzi kimina. Akunakwenzeka ukuthi noma ubani obengafuni ukuvotela i-Podemos noma i-Izquierda Unida ngaphambi kokuhlangana azokwenza lokho ngokuqondile ngoba bayaqiniseka ndawonye. Ngokuphambene nalokho.

Ngo-1993, i-Basque Socialist Party yathatha iqembu elincane kodwa elibalulekile lobuzwe elibizwa Euskadiko EZkerra. Zombili izinhlangothi zazinabavoti bazo kanye nerekhodi labo lomkhondo. Zombili zazinezindatshana zazo zokhetho, ngokwengxenye ziqondane futhi zihlukene ngokwengxenye. Ngokujoyina, babehlose ukuhlanganisa okuhle kakhulu kwezinhlangothi zombili ukuze banikeze ukungaguquguquki kuphrojekthi yomhlaba wonke. Abakuzuzile ukuthi, ngemva konyaka, akekho owakhumbula i-Euskadiko Ezkerra: inhloko-dolobha yayo yahlanjululwa, njengoshukela, ngaphakathi kwe-PSE. Amavoti abo apheshulwe wumoya abaphindanga bazwakala. Okungenani i-PSE ayizange ibabone.

Umgomo wama-athikili we-“2×1” uwukuvusa inkulumo-mpikiswano: isixhumanisi sendatshana ephambene

@josesalver