Njengoba kune-hangover okhethweni lwase-Andalusia, isikhathi sesifikile sokubuyekeza impumelelo nephutha labavoti.

Ukuze senze lokhu, sizokwenza kanjalo landela indlela endala efanayo, kubalwa ukuchezuka ngokuphelele kwevoti kanye nephutha le-pollster ngayinye kanye nemibandela emenyezelwe futhi yamukelwe okhethweni lwaseCastilla y León (iphutha eliphakathi nendawo elisuka esimemezelweni sokhetho, hhayi inhlolovo yokugcina kuphela).

Njengokubonwa kwangaphambili kokuhlaziywa kokuhlukaniswa, kulesi senzakalo ukuchezuka kwabo bonke abavoti kukhuphuke kakhulu ngokuphathelene nokhetho lwesifunda lwangaphambilini olufana nolukaCastilla y León noma i-Com. Madrid.

Ukuchezuka kumavoti

I-GAD3, ngokungangabazeki, i-pollster eye yaphambuka kancane emaphesentini okuvota amaqembu ezepolitiki kuwo wonke umkhankaso wangaphambi komkhankaso kanye nomkhankaso. Ngemuva, futhi kude impela, Sithola i-CIS, engenzanga kabi Kulesi senzakalo, izinkampani zokuvota eziningana ezinamavelu afanayo okuphambuka (CENTRA, Sigma Dos, IMOP, SocialData).

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, sinalo I-Data10 ne-ElectoPanel, izilinganiso ezikude kakhulu ukuze usondele kumphumela wokugcina, ikakhulukazi ngenxa ye ukubukelwa phansi kwe-PP kanye nokulinganisa ngokweqile kwe-Vox.

Ukuchezuka ezihlalweni

Mayelana nezihlalo, sibona isimo esifana nesamavoti ane-caveat eyodwa: I-GAD3 isondelene kakhulu nomphumela, ngokuchezuka ngokuphelele (isamba sokuchezuka kwawo wonke amaqembu) kwezihlalo ezi-5, kuyilapho zonke ezinye izinhlolovo zikude, futhi idlula i-15.

De nuevo Idatha10 futhi, ikakhulukazi, i-ElectoPanel yethu ihlanganisa umehluko omkhulu kakhulu ngokuphelele phakathi kwemiphumela kanye nesilinganiso samasekela atholwe ngesikhathi sangaphambi komkhankaso nomkhankaso.

Kwenzekeni kuphaneli?

Kuleli qophelo, sifuna ukuhlaziya kanye nawe ukuthi yini ebingenzeka ukuze kulo mcimbi iphaneli yethu, kuze kube manje ebiku-TOP5 yezilinganiso ebisondele kakhulu kumphumela, ibe ngenye yezimbi kakhulu.

Uma lungekho ucwaningo olunzulu, sibone izici ezimbalwa esingakwazi ukuzikala kahle:

1. Ukuzithiba. Iphaneli yethu ibicubungula isimo sokubamba iqhaza esingaba ngu-62%, esingaphansi kancane kunalokho obekulindelwe abanye abavoti, kodwa ngaphezu kuka-4p ngaphezu kwalokho okwenzeka ngo-19J.

Esimeni esicabange ukuthi kungenzeka kakhulu, kubhekwe ukugqugquzelwa okukhulu kwe-Cs ne-Vox ku-conservative bloc, kanye no-Adelante Andalucía kokuqhubekayo.

2. Ukudluliselwa kwe-intrablock kwesokudla. Nakuba iphaneli ichezuke kakhulu ekulinganisweni kwayo kwe-PP, ayizange ibe nomehluko omkhulu ngokuphathelene nabanye abavoti kanye nemiphumela maqondana nesisindo samabhulokhi alondolozayo naqhubekayo.

Esimeni sethu, Besingazi ukuthi singawukala kanjani kahle umthelela kazibuthe ukhetho lukaJuanma Moreno olwalunawo kubavoti bangaphambili be-Cs kanye neVox..

3. Inkumbulo yevoti kanye nomphumela wemodi yokulandelela. Le phaneli ingeyokuqala yesifunda esiyibambe lapho saba nephaneli yayo okhethweni oludlule (i-ElectoPanel yaqala ngo-2018 ngama-Andalusians). Ukusebenza kwimodi yokulandelela eqhubekayo kusho ukuthi ukuphusha kwe-PP emkhankasweni wangaphambi komkhankaso kanye nomkhankaso akuboniswanga ngokwanele, ngoba Isiqalo sethu sivela esimweni sokuqala esihluke kakhulu, kusukela ekuhlanganiseni okukhulu kwabavoti be-Vox kanye nezinyanga zokunyakaza kwangaphakathi e-Andalusia ngaphandle kokuhlukahluka okukhulu.

4. Ukufiphala kwamathrendi kanye nokungabikho kwe-EmojiPanel. Nakuba engxenyeni yokugcina yomkhankaso iphaneli ithole ukulahlekelwa kokusekelwa kwe-PSOE ne-Vox kanye nokwanda kwalabo abatholwe yi-PP no-Adelante Andalucía, ukuhlukahluka kuye kwancishiswa ngokwengxenye ngenxa yemodi yokulandelela eqhubekayo enesisekelo seminyaka.

Kwezinye izikhathi, le mikhuba yasheshiswa ezinsukwini zokugcina zomkhankaso, lapho sithuthuke khona yethu EmojiPanel, futhi lokho kusivumele ukuthi sibone kangcono ukuthi abavoti banyakaze kanjani ekugcineni. Ngokusobala lokhu akuchazi umehluko obanzi kangaka phakathi kwesilinganiso sephaneli yokugcina kanye nemiphumela yokugcina.

Manje, Sizosebenzisa ithuba lasehlobo ukuhlaziya amaphutha ngokujula siwalungise noma siwanciphise, futhi senze izinguquko ezimbalwa kumaphaneli.. Siqinisekile ukuthi singakwenza, njengoba iphaneli ibonakale ithembekile okhethweni olulandelayo: Andalucia 2018, Generals 2019 (ikakhulukazi 10N), Com. I-Madrid, iCatalonia neCastilla y León. Kuzo zonke, ukuchezuka kwethu bekukuncane kakhulu kunalokho kweningi labavoti, bebhekene nezinkinga ezifanayo esisolwa ngazo namuhla (indlela ye-inthanethi, ukuhlanganisa uhlobo lomvoti 'ukuphinga' kwephaneli, njll.).

Esikucacela ngakho ukuthi besingazivumela ukuthi sithathwe igagasi labantu futhi, njengoba abanye benzile, silungise isilinganiso sokugcina ngaphambi kokuvinjelwa noma sikhiphe isilinganiso ngoJuni 19, silungisa amaphutha ukuze kubukeke kukuhle. Kodwa sithembekile, njengoba sasiku-CyL lapho sibikezela ngokumelene nesikhathi samanje lokho okwaqinisekiswa kamuva, ngoba uma kukhona esikukweletayo kungenxa yendlela yethu, nakuwe.

Ngokusekela kwenu, ngokuqinisekile sizokufeza.