Izibalo zamaDummies (II): Metroscopia vs 20-D

Uzokhumbula lokho esihlokweni esandulele "Iphutha" lenhlolovo lachazwa, ukuphambuka okujwayelekile okuhambisanayo kwafundiswa futhi, ekugcineni, indlela yokusebenzisa le datha ukuze kutholakale ukwethembeka kwe-pollster kwachazwa, kuqhathaniswa nezibikezelo zayo neqiniso elinzima.

Kodwa-ke, leyo ndlela "engcolile" yayinenkinga enkulu eyenza ukuthi icishe ingasebenzi (okungenani, Okhethweni Lukazwelonke lwaseSpain): yayinengqondo kuphela uma inhlolovo "esolisayo" iseduze kakhulu nokhetho: uma sikhuluma ngamabili. noma amasonto amathathu ukude, njengenjwayelo, bekwenzeka njalo ukusho ukuthi...

“Ngaleso sikhathi, amavoti amaningi ayanyakaza, ngakho-ke kunengqondo ukuthi umhloli wenza amaphutha amaningi. "Asikho isidingo sokubona izipoki."

Empeleni, ivoti liyahamba: kusobala ukuthi okulindelwe yiqembu okhethweni kungashintsha kancane emasontweni okugcina omkhankaso. Kodwa…Ngakho? Ngokugxila kuMetroscopia ehlala iphikisana, ingabe amaphutha ayo okubikezela okuyinhlekelele inyanga eyodwa ngaphambi kuka-December 20 amane abe umphumela wokushintshashintsha okukhulu kwemizwa yabavoti? Ingabe ama-Podemos ayaphakama (amaphuzu angu-3.6) futhi, PHEZU KWAKHO KONKE, inhlekelele ka-C (amaphuzu angu-8.7), esikhathini esingaphansi kwenyanga lo mhloli we-pollster asibonise yona, into ekholeka ngokwezibalo?

Indlela yokusebenzisa

Ngokusobala, impendulo izoncika ekushintsheni okumaphakathi kwanyanga zonke kwalowo mdlalo. Uma iqembu lihlala, umuntu ethatha, ezinzile ku-20% unyaka wonke, kungaba nzima kakhulu ukuthethelela ukwehla "kungazelelwe" kwamaphuzu angu-10. Ngakho into yokuqala esiyidingayo yinto esingaqhathanisa nayo. Futhi hhayi nje umdlalo othize, kodwa wonke.

Futhi ukwenza lokhu, yini engcono kunokuthatha idatha kuMetroscopia ngokwayo ngo-2015 bese usungula ukuhluka okumaphakathi kwanyanga zonke kwenhloso yokuvota?

I-Podemos, isibonelo, yayinenjongo yokuvota engu-28,2 ngoJanuwari futhi ngoFebhuwari yehla yaya ku-27.7, ngakho izinga lokushintshashintsha ngaleso sikhathi le-Podemos lalingu- (27,7-28,2)/1=-0,5 .21,5 Amaphuzu/ngenyanga. Okusho ukuthi, wayelahlekelwa inhloso yokuvota ngenani lengxenye yephoyinti ngenyanga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, futhi uma kuqhathaniswa, emasontweni amabili phakathi kwezinhlolovo ezimbili ezishicilelwe ngoJulayi, i-Podemos yasuka ku-18,1 yaya ku-18,1, ngakho-ke izinga lokuhlukahluka laliyi-(21,5-0.5)/ 6.8=-XNUMX amaphuzu / ngenyanga (I angazi ukuthi yisiphi isenzakalo esingavamile esithethelela lokhu kugoqa).

Nokho, inkinga esibhekene nayo iwukuhlanganisa zonke lezi zinguquko zanyanga zonke: “sumar” imiphumela ye-Podemos, C’s, PSOE, PP… ukuze kutholwe inani eliyisilinganiso elingaqhathaniswa nalokho okwenzeka ngo-20-D. Futhi ngithi "sumarlas”, ngezingcaphuno, ngoba kusobala ukuthi asikwazi ukukwenza: umphumela uzoba nguziro (lokho abanye abakuzuzayo, abanye abalahlekelwayo). Ngenhlanhla, ukubala le "global" kukhona okungenani izindlela ezimbili ezahlukene.

1)      Okwakudala: sumar amanani aphelele okuhluka kwanyanga zonke komdlalo ngamunye

2)       Okunye "okungavamile": sebenzisa i-Pythagoras.

Ifomu lokuqala libizwa ngokuthi “ibanga le-Manhattan”, elesibili “ibanga le-Euclidean”. Kuyathakazelisa ukwazi ukuthi zombili izindlela, nakuba zinganikeza imiphumela ehluke kakhulu ngokwezibalo, ngokwezibalo okungenani noma ngaphansi okulinganayo: okwesibili kuzwela kakhulu ekushintsheni okungazelelwe emdlalweni owodwa. Kulesi simo, futhi ukuze kucace ukuthi akukho mgibe noma amakhadibhodi, ukubala kwenziwe ngezindlela ZOBILI.

Iziphumo

Nokho, lapho yonke idatha ifakwa etafuleni le-Excel, okulandelayo kuyatholakala:

-Ukwehluka okumaphakathi kwenhloso yokuvota yomhlaba wonke yezinhlolovo zeMetroscopia (ngokusho kweManhattan) amaphuzu angu-8,55/ngenyanga. Ukusuka emgomeni kungamaphuzu angu-4.76/ngenyanga

-Ukwehluka okumaphakathi kwenhloso yokuvota yomhlaba wonke yezinhlolovo zeMetroscopia (Euclidean) amaphuzu angu-4,51/ngenyanga. Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kungamaphuzu angu-2,5/ngenyanga

Iziphetho

Ake sigxile endleleni yaseManhattan, enembile kakhulu:

Kuvele ukuthi uma siqhathanisa umphumela womhlaba wonke we-20-D nalowo wenhlolovo yangaphambi kokhetho eshicilelwe yiMetroscopia ekupheleni kukaNovemba, sithola lokho ngenyanga eyodwa nje, futhi sithatha ukuthi kuyiqiniso, ukuhlukahluka okuqoqiwe wonke amaqembu (ikakhulukazi ama-C namaPodemo) anikeza... Ingabe uhlezi?

 28,5 amaphuzu/ngenyanga!!!.

Okusho ukuthi, uma lokho okushicilelwe kuyiqiniso, ezinsukwini ezingu-23-25 ​​ezedlule kusukela lapho idatha evela kunhlolovo eshiwo ngenhla iqoqwe kuze kufike ukhetho, isivinini inhloso yokuvota yashintsha ngaso. KUPHINDE KANANE evamile. Eqinisweni, ukuhluka kwama-C kuphela, okunokwehla kwamaphoyinti angu-11/ngenyanga, sekuvele kuphumile emashadini.

Hhayi-ke, kusasele nje ukubona ukuthi lokhu kuxakile kangakanani. Futhi ngalokho sisebenzisa imibandela efanayo echazwe esihlokweni esandulele. Ngokukhethekile, ukuchezuka kusuka esilinganisweni kuwukuchezuka okuphindwe izikhathi ezingu-4,2 ukuchezuka okujwayelekile, futhi lokho kusho ukuthi...

Amathuba okuthi iphutha kunhlolovo ye-29/11/15 Metroscopia libe umphumela wokuhluka kwangempela kwenhloso yokuvota phakathi nomkhankaso yilo: 0.0027%. Okusho ukuthi, oyedwa kwabangu-37000.

Uma siphinda izibalo zendlela ye-Euclidean, sithola umphumela ofanayo: amathuba okuba 0.0022%. Okungukuthi, eyodwa phakathi 45000: ihambisana ngokuphelele nalokhu okungenhla.

Kuyiqiniso ukuthi umkhankaso wokhetho akusona isikhathi “esivamile” futhi kucatshangwa ukuthi ivoti linokuthambekela kokushintshashintsha ngendlela eshesha kakhulu futhi “enovalo” (nakuba kunezifundo zezenhlalo ezikuphikayo lokhu, zisho ukuthi umthelela of umkhankaso kumvoti cishe null). Kodwa, ngokwanele ukuphikisana nalezi zinombolo ezimangalisayo? Ngikushiyela wonke umuntu ukuthi azenzele ezakhe iziphetho.

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Qaphela: lapho wenza izibalo, inhlolovo yakamuva ye-Metroscopia yangaphambi kokhetho ilahliwe, ngenxa yokukhombisa ukuhluka obekuvele kungazelele muntu futhi obekufike ngesikhathi (ake sibe ngabakhulumeli) ngokuphathelene nodlule. Nokho, uma ifakiwe, amathuba acishe abe ngu-1 kwabangu-200.

Isihloko sikaVictorino García.