Umhlahlandlela wokuhlola i-Metroscopia, i-GAD3, i-CIS noma i-Demoscopia Servicios.

Ake sihlaziye ukuchema i-bipartisan vs amaqembu amaningi zonhlolovo ezahlukene ezishicilelwe. Kulokhu, sithatha ezakamuva ezishicilelwe yinkampani ngayinye ngo-December 3, futhi Siqhathanisa iphesenti abalinikeza iqembu ngalinye kwamakhulu amahlanu nemiphumela yangempela yokhetho lukazwelonke olwedlule, lwango-2011*. Sithola ama-indices alandelayo:

Okugxilwe kakhulu kuzo ama-avareji amahle ohlolovo. Ngokuqondene nabavoti ngabanye, cishe zonke zibonisa ukuchema okucacile: amanye abheke ohlelweni lwamaqembu amabili kanti amanye abheke “kuhlelo lwamaqembu amane”. Umehluko awumncane, futhi lokho kusho ukuthi Ukudla kwabo kuhluke kakhulu. Lo mehluko awuveli kuphela ocwaningweni lokugcina olushicilelwe, kodwa usuvele ukhona kulezo ezikhishwe ngaphambilini yindlu ngayinye.

Lapho izinhlolovo ezintsha zishicilelwa ezinsukwini ezizayo, sizoba nomhlahlandlela othembekile kule grafu: Uma inhlolovo Umbiko we-GAD3, NC noma i-Invymark, kungenzeka ukwedlula ukwesekwa kwe-PP kanye/noma i-PSOE kanye nokubukela phansi ama-Ciudadanos kanye/noma ama-Podemo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma sibhekene nomunye I-Metrooscopy, I-Logic Elula noma i-SigmaDos, kuzokwenzeka kungenjalo.

I-pollster egxile kakhulu yi-Demoscopy Services: singalindela idatha yabo ukuthi ibonise isilinganiso sabo bonke abanye kahle. I-CIS futhi inikeza imiphumela ephusile, nakuba inikeza ukuchema okungaveli kule grafu: ibeka kuqala i-PP ngaphezu kwe-PSOE.

Usho ukuthini lo mehluko? Abasho ukuthi izinhlolovo ezithile zingcono kunezinye. Umehluko akudingekile ukuba ube ngenxa yokukhohlisa noma umkhuba omubi. Kungase kudingeke ezinhlobonhlobo zokudla ezisemthethweni. Noma cha. Wonke umuntu makazenzele ezakhe iziphetho.

Kodwa okubalulekile ku-20-D elandelayo ingozi eyengeziwe esizokwazi kuphela ukuyiqinisekisa ngosuku lokhetho: ukuthi BONKE ama-pollsters asebenzisa ukudla okuphambukile, ngesilinganiso esikhulu noma esincane, kanye nakho konke ohlangothini olufanayo.

Kulokhu, i- umphumela wangempela wokhetho usengasithatha noma okunye kuya ku ubudlelwano obuqinile, noma into efana ne-a bopha phakathi kokune. Ngeke sikubeke eceleni ukuthi lokhu kungenzeka. Okhethweni lwaseCatalan, isibonelo, iMetroscopia, izibikezelo zayo ezazicheme kakhulu kunezabanye, yayinembe kakhulu. Nokho, kwezinye izikhathi iye yehluleka kabuhlungu. Izinga lokungaqiniseki likhulu kakhulu.

Kodwa okungenani njalo lapho sibona inhlolovo entsha, singaya kule grafu ukuze sazi ukuthi yini okufanele siyilindele ngokuchema kwayo.

I-GAD3

CIS

I-Metrooscopy

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@josesalver

-* Inkomba= 100-(isamba sokwehluka okuphelele phakathi kwemiphumela ebikezelwe inhlolovo ngayinye yeqembu ngalinye kwamazwe amahlanu amakhulu kanye nemiphumela etholwe ngo-2011)