Palm Beach County: 111.000 votos

Demócratas: 60.5%
Republicanos: 19.1%
No afiliación: 19.5%

Bonita ? ☀

Dudo mucho que Georgia, Ohio o Carolina del Norte acaben del lado de Biden. Creo que Georgia la ganará Trump por mínimo 2 o 3 puntos, y que Carolina del Norte estará muy muy igualada pero con cierta ventaja para Trump. Idem con Florida, creo que la ventaja que los Dem tienen en el voto por correo no es la suficiente como para compensar el voto masivo republicano el día de las elecciones. Dicen que están ganando el voto por correo por un 52% en lo que debería de ser una victoria sin paliativos, por lo que veo al estado en un bis de 2016 y las de 2018, con Trump ganador por 1 punto. Ohio la ganó Trump por 8 puntos si no recuerdo mal, me resulta difícil creer esa remontada.

Dicho esto, creo que Biden conseguirá Arizona, Michigan, Pensylvania y Winsconsin por lo que todavía tiene un camino a los 270 votos electorales. Pero creo que será más ajustado de lo que predicen las encuestas, que le están otorgando la victoria en estados super conservadores como Georgia y yo creo que eso es una mera ilusión. No veo a los Republicans por debajo de 240 electoral votes. A Biden lo veo en la horquilla de los 280.

Ese mapa con solo colores rojos y azules es muy poco indicativo de como está la cuestión en cada estado.

Iowa y Ohio están en empate técnico.
Texas y Arkansas están solo con una ligera ventaja republicana
Georgia y Carolina del Norte con ligera ventaja demócrata

https://electoral-vote.com/

(esta web está menos sesgada que 270towin, que es muy conservadora).

El hecho de que Texas esté al alcance de los demócratas es señal de que el barrido a Trump puede ser memorable.

¿Va a haber entrada para el debate de los vicepresidentes, que es hoy?

Puede estar muy interesante. A ver si Harris se come dialécticamente a Pence.

Ahora andan peleando porque Pence se niega a que haya una mampara separando a los candidatos. Parece que desean que se contagien Biden y Harris, para poder decir que los deócratas son igual de inútiles que ellos.

Comparemos dos fragmentos de discursos de los candidatos:

“Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are — nuclear is so powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right, who would have thought? — but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us, this is horrible.”

frente a

As we stand here today, a century and a half after Gettysburg, we should consider again what can happen when equal justice is denied and when anger and violence and division are left unchecked.

As I look across America today, I’m concerned. The country is in a dangerous place. Our trust in each other is ebbing. Hope is elusive.

Too many Americans see our public life not as an arena for the mediation of our differences. Rather, they see it as an occasion for total, unrelenting partisan warfare.

Instead of treating the other party as the opposition, we treat them as the enemy.

This must end.

....

I’m running as a proud Democrat, but I will govern as an American president.

I will work with Democrats and Republicans and I will work as hard for those who don’t support me as for those who do.

That’s the job of a president.

It’s a duty of care for everyone.

The refusal of Democrats and Republicans to cooperate with one another is not due to some mysterious force beyond our control. It’s a decision. A choice we make.

And if we can decide not to cooperate, we can decide to cooperate as well.

That’s the choice I’ll make as president.

But there is something bigger going on in the nation than just our broken politics, something darker, something more dangerous.

I’m not talking about ordinary differences of opinion. Competing viewpoints give life and vibrancy to our democracy.

No, I’m talking about something different, something deeper.

Too many Americans seek not to overcome our divisions, but to deepen them.

We must seek not to build walls, but bridges. We must seek not to clench our fists, but to open our arms. We must seek not to tear each other apart, but to come together.

You don’t have to agree with me on everything — or even on most things — to see that what we’re experiencing today is neither good nor normal.

I made the decision to run for president after Charlottesville.

Close your eyes. Remember what you saw.

Neo-Nazis, white supremacists and the KKK coming out of the fields with torches lit. Veins bulging. Chanting the same anti-Semitic bile heard across Europe in the 1930s.

It was hate on the march, in the open. In America.

Hate never goes away. It only hides.

And when it is given oxygen, when it is given the opportunity to spread, when it is treated as normal and acceptable behavior we have opened a door in this country we must move quickly to close.

As President, I will do that.

Vamos, igualitos.