New Hampshire: Sanders ya ba Biden mamaki. 'Yan takara da dama a kan 15%

La tseren dimokuradiyya fuskantar Donald Trump a zaben shugaban kasar Amurka da za a yi a watan Nuwamba, bayan shafe watanni ana muhawara da tara kudade, yanzu ya kai ga gaci.

El jiha ta farko wanda zai yanke shawarar wakilan da za su aika zuwa babban taron Demokradiyya a watan Yuli zai kasance Iowa, wanda zai kada kuri'a ranar Litinin mai zuwa. A halin yanzu, yaƙin da ake yi yana mai da hankali kan Sanders da Biden, waɗanda da alama sun sami mafi ƙarancin tallafi na 15%, waɗanda suka wajaba don samun wakilai, yayin da sauran 'yan takara ke kan iyaka don samun su.

Na biyu shine New Hampshire, wanda zai yi bikin farko bayan mako guda, wato, da 11 don Fabrairu. New Hampshire ba ta da mahimmanci a ƙididdigewa fiye da Iowa, saboda kawai ta ware wakilai 24 daga cikin kusan 4.000. Amma kasancewarsa daya daga cikin na farko da aka kada kuri’a a kansa, ana kara daukaka dacewar sa, domin Zai yi tasiri ga duk waɗanda za a gudanar daga baya.

Juyin halitta a cikin makonni biyu na ƙarshe na wannan jiha ta biyu yayi kama da na Iowa:

Sanders yana kan gaba sosai, yayin da Biden, Buttigieg da Warren suka taru a wuri na biyu.

Ta yaya hakan zai iya shafar zaɓen wakilai na babban taron Demokraɗiyya a watan Yuli?

Ayyukan wakilai a wannan lokacin za a rage zuwa mutum biyu, Sanders da Biden kuma, yana iya zama ma ɗaya kawai: Bernie Sanders. Ta yaya zai yiwu? Don shigar da rarrabawa dole ka samu, akalla daya 15% goyon baya. Sanders yana da yawa (a halin yanzu), amma Biden, musamman Buttigieg da Warren, suna gab da (ko ƙasa) na wannan adadi. Biden ya fara nuna alamun tashin hankali, kuma a jiya ya yi nuni da cewa, a wani yunƙuri na sake samun mukamai a kan Sanders, cewa zai iya haɗawa da shi. Michelle Obama a matsayin mataimakiyar shugaban kasa a takararta.

Daidaiton tsakanin 'yan takarar ya fi girma a yakin da suka gabata, kuma karamin rawa na 1% na iya canza (yawanci) rabon wakilai. Ƙungiyoyin Iowa da New Hampshire kawai farkon tseren tsere ne wanda zai kai mu har zuwa Yuli, wanda a ciki. Manufar ita ce cimma akalla wakilai 1.990, adadi wanda, a yau, babu daya daga cikin 'yan takarar da zai cimma, bisa ga hasashen da ake yi a kasar baki daya.

A ƙarshe, ya kamata a lura cewa zaɓen na fidda gwani a Amurka yana ƙarƙashin a babban rashin tabbas, da bambance-bambancen tazarar kashi 10 ko fiye tsakanin binciken daya da wani, har ma da aka yi a rana guda, ba bakon abu bane. Alal misali, a cikin yanayin New Hampshire, kuma ga waɗanda aka yi a cikin makon da ya gabata kawai, iyakokin sun kasance kamar haka:

• Sanders: 16% zuwa 29%
• Biden: 14% zuwa 22%
• Buttigieg: 10% zuwa 17%
• Warren: 10% zuwa 16%