Jamus: matsananciyar yarjejeniya ta dama da SPD don matsayi na biyu

Akwai bincike da yawa, kuma ba duka suke faɗin abu ɗaya ba, ba a Spain ko a wasu ƙasashe ba. Misali, a Jamus waɗannan sune na ƙarshe, a cewar Dawum.de:

Jam'iyyar farko a Jamus za ta kasance jam'iyyar CDU/CSU ta shugabar gwamnati Merkel, yayin da a matsayi na biyu za a fafata da jam'iyyar dimokuradiyya ta al'adar gargajiya da ta AfD mai kyamar baki. Mataki na baya, amma tare da kaso mai mahimmanci, zai kasance masu kore, hagu na Linke da masu sassaucin ra'ayi na FDP.

Wataƙila mafi ban sha'awa don fahimtar yanayin zaɓe na ƙasar nan shi ne ganin sauyin matsakaicin zaɓe a cikin shekarar da ta gabata.

A watan Satumba an gudanar da zabukan da suka kai ga kafa majalisar ba tare da bayyanannun masu rinjaye ba. Bayan shafe watanni ana tattaunawa, yunkurin kafa "gamayyar jam'iyyar Jama'a" tsakanin jam'iyyar CDU ta Merkel da Greens (Grüne) da kuma masu sassaucin ra'ayi (FDP) ya ci tura. A cikin masu tsattsauran ra'ayi, tuni a cikin Maris 2018, an cimma yarjejeniyar CDU/SPD wacce ta kaucewa kiran sabon zabe.

Tun daga wannan lokacin, tashe-tashen hankula game da matsalar shige da fice ya sa sabon shugaban hukumar ya duba sau da dama. Gamayyar gwamnati ta ga an rage kimarta, kuma jam'iyyar Merkel da SPD, a yau, sun fi muni da tsammanin zaɓe fiye da shekara guda da ta wuce. Merkel ta sha fama da tashe-tashen hankula da rigingimu a cikin ƙungiyarta da kuma ƙawayenta na tarihi na Bavaria na CSU, yayin da SPD ke tafiya ba tare da tabbatacciyar alkibla ba. Ta yadda, idan aka gudanar da zabuka a yau, a karon farko cikin shekaru da dama, adadin jam'iyyun biyu zai kasance kasa da kashi 50% na kuri'u da kujeru a majalisar dokoki ta Bundestag.

A halin yanzu, bangarorin "na uku" sun yi amfani da yanayin. AfD na samun kuri'u kuma tuni ya yi daidai da jam'iyyar Social Democrats, saboda karuwar kin amincewa da manufofin gwamnati na shige da fice. Masu sassaucin ra'ayi sun kuma rattaba hannu don kare tsauraran manufofi, tare da fatan ganin gwamnati za ta ci riba, kuma 'yan koren 'yan koren sun ci gaba da yin galaba a kan jam'iyyar SPD da har yanzu ba ta sami shugaba don kauce wa zubar da jini na kuri'u ba. Tun a shekarar 1998 jam'iyyar ta fuskanci asara, inda ta kai kashi 40% na kuri'un da aka kada. A yau zan yi farin ciki idan na sami damar girbi rabinsa.

Jose Salver