Electoaverage (31J): PSOE na iya fara raguwa

Kamar kullum lokacin da aka fitar da binciken CIS na wata-wata na 'yan watanni, a jiya kafofin watsa labarai sun cika da labarai masu karo da juna kuma, sama da duka, rudani.

Hanya mafi kyau don fahimtar mahallin ita ce amfani da matsakaicin binciken (a cikin wannan yanayin, muna nuna duk waɗanda aka sani a watan Yuli). Matsakaicin yana gyara wuce gona da iri na binciken mutum ɗaya kuma yana sanya abubuwa a wurinsu.

da Mahimman kwanakin don fahimtar wannan watan sune kwanaki Yuli 22 zuwa 25, wanda aka gudanar da zaman binciken da bai yi nasara ba. Akwai rukunin binciken da aikin filin ya fara tun kafin kaddamarwar. Akwai wani binciken (Invymark) da aka gudanar a kwanakin baya, lokacin da yanayin ya riga ya yi zafi amma ba a san abin da zai faru ba. Kuma akwai wasu karatu guda biyu (Sociometrica da Electopanel mu) daga kwanakin bayan binciken.

Daga nazarin bayanan da ake da su za mu fitar da hakan Wataƙila an sami canji a cikin abubuwan da ke faruwa.

Veámoslo más en detalle:

da farkon watan Yuli sun kasance in mun gwada da inifom. Banda kawai shine CIS, wanda bayanai ba su da babu abin gani tare da sauran. Amma wannan yana da ma'ana, domin ba ya "yin girki", kuma kawai yana yada bayanan jefa kuri'a kai tsaye da masu sauraronsa suka bayyana, suna daukaka su (!!) ga masu zabe gaba daya. Wannan ba kiyasin kuri'a ba ne kamar yadda ita kanta cibiyar ta amince da ita. Wajibi ne mu yada bayanan ku, saboda jama'a ne kuma ana ba da su sosai, amma koyaushe muna bayyana hakan. Abin da CIS ke bayarwa ba ƙididdigewa ba ne na ƙuri'a, amma ƙari ne ga dukan masu zaɓe na zaɓen da aka ayyana kai tsaye. Ba za mu iya shiga cikin dalilin wannan hanya ba: kawai muna kula da bayananku na ƙarshe kamar yadda muke yi da duk sauran masu jefa ƙuri'a, har ma da sanin iyakokin su. I mana, ba mu saka su a cikin matsakaicinmu ba, domin idan muka yi haka za mu hada kimar kuri’u da kada kuri’a kai tsaye.

Amma ga juyin halitta na matsakaici, ana iya ganin bambanci tsakanin binciken tun kafin a fara binciken, wanda aka yi daidai a wancan zamanin, da kuma na baya. PSOE da alama yana nuna raguwar raguwa, watakila an haɗa bisa ga bayananmu zuwa karuwa a cikin ƙauracewa, yayin da sauran jam'iyyun ke motsawa cikin guntu, bambance-bambancen sama.

Hay que esperar a los próximos días y a nuevas encuestas don sanin ko wannan yanayin ya inganta ko na ɗan lokaci. Wani dalili na rashin tabbas shine duba wanda shine babban mai cin gajiyar sabon yanayin: Daga ElectoPanel namu yana da alama cewa shi ne PP, amma Sociometrica, a gefe guda, yana nuna Ciudadanos.

A ƙarshe, a cikin wani block bincike, da PSOE na ci gaba da zarce masu fafatawa Zuwa hannun hagu (Unidas Podemos) a ko'ina cikin Spain, kuma yana yin haka idan muka kalli cibiyar (ya zarce Ciudadanos ko'ina). A cikin ɓangaren dama, PP yana ƙarfafa fifikonsa a ko'ina sai Catalonia da wasu larduna inda Ciudadanos har yanzu yana kula da kusan ɗaure ko ma wuce ta (Cádiz).

Lokacin da muka kiyaye gaba dayanta manyan tubalan guda biyu da suke a yau, hagu ya mamaye mafi yawan bakin teku da kuma kudu maso yamma, yayin da dama ya fi karfi a tsakiya.