ElectoAverage: PP ndi Unidos Podemos ali osachepera; Vox yadutsa kale 10%

Chaka chofunikira chimayamba pomwe Vox yadutsa kale 10% ya mavoti mu avareji ya kafukufuku. Kwa nthawi yoyamba ku Spain tili ndi siteji yokhala ndi masewera asanu "chachikulu", Ngati mwakutero timamvetsetsa omwe amaposa mavoti aja.

Chisinthiko cha pafupifupi nthawi yamalamulo amatisiya ndi deta yosangalatsa. Chipani Chotchuka imafika pang'onopang'ono kuyambira 26-J (kwenikweni, ndi yake osachepera kuyambira 1982!!), ndipo osaposa 20% ya mavoti. Kumbali yake, Unidos Podemos alinso osachepera, ndipo amangotsala pang'ono kupitirira 15% ya mavoti.

Mwambiri, a magulu anayi akuluakulu akupitiriza kusintha kutsika, pamene Vox ikukwera.

Kodi izi zikhudza bwanji kugawidwa kwa mipando?

Kwa nthawi yoyamba m'zaka makumi angapo, Zomwe tinganene kuti "zolondola" sizimapindula kwenikweni pakugawira nduna. Chiwerengero chongoyerekeza cha PP, Cs ndi Vox chikadapeza 50.2% ya mavoti omwe adaponyedwa, omwe zaka makumi awiri zapitazo zikadakhala zokwanira kupitilira nduna za 200, koma tsopano sizikanapereka unyinji wochepa. Kumbali yake, Chiwerengero cha PP ndi Cs chiri kutali kwambiri ndi unyinji umenewo. Kubalalika kwa mavoti kumabweretsa mavuto. M’zigawo “zazing’ono” zambiri, zomwe ndi zochuluka, mulibe mipando yoti igawidwe pakati pa anthu osankhidwa ambiri, choncho chodabwitsa cha “mavoti otayika” chikhala chofunikira kwambiri pachisankho chotsatira.

Kumanzere, maphwando omwe adathandizira Pedro Sánchez pakutsutsa kwa Rajoy, sumarzinalipo 172, ndipo sanathe kuzitulutsanso. Koma ziwerengerozo zili pafupi kwambiri ndipo kusiyanasiyana kwina kulikonse kungasinthe zinthu.

Ponena za a Mgwirizano wapakati pa PSOE ndi Ciudadanos, yomwe idayesedwa kale popanda kupambana mu 2016, sumartsopano panali mavoti 164 (ndipo analipo 130). Ngati chinthu chonga ichi chikaganiziridwa, chidzafunika thandizo lakunja, osati la PNV, kuti lithe kukhala laumunthu.

Zinthu zili mlengalenga ndipo zonse zimatengera kusinthika kwa Vox m'miyezi iwiri ikubwerayi. Ngati zochitika za masewera akuluakulu asanu Kuphatikizidwa, dongosolo la zisankho lidzapereka mphoto ku Congress (ndipo makamaka, mu Senate) aliyense amene angathe kuima, ngakhale pang'ono. Pakalipano, phwando limenelo ndi PSOE.

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