Chodabwitsacho chikhoza kulepheretsa Pablo Iglesias kufika ku boma

Ngati pali chinthu chimodzi chodziwikiratu kwa iwo ku Unidos Podemos, ndikuti ayenera kupitirira PSOE mu chisankho cha 26-J: patsogolo pa mavoti, mipando, ndipo momveka bwino, ndi bwino.

Ku UP amalingalira motere: "Njira yolambalala ikakwaniritsidwa, tikakhala ndi mwayi wochulukirapo kuposa PSOE, m'pamenenso tidzakhala ndi mphamvu zambiri zokambilana. Powonjezera mipando ya PSOE kwa yathu, tidzakwaniritsa zambiri, chifukwa lamulo la D'hont lidzatipatsa aphungu ambiri. A PSOE akuyenera kutithandiza, chifukwa tikawamenya momveka bwino ndikusankha kuthandizira PP, adzawonetsedwa ndikumizidwa. Ngati sanatichirikize, tikanawachititsa kuti asaonekere pamapu pazisankho zilizonse, zachigawo kapena zazikulu, zomwe zidayitanidwa pambuyo pake.

Lingaliroli likuwoneka ngati labwino, koma likuchokera pamalingaliro am'mbuyomu: kuti njira yodutsa, popereka nduna zambiri ku UP, imapindulitsa gulu lakumanzere, lomwe lidzakwaniritsa unyinji womveka bwino.

Koma ndi choncho?

M'masiku ano zisankho zambiri zimatenga mopepuka kugonja kwa UP pa PSOE. Malingaliro a anthu, ngakhale andale ochepa kwambiri, atha kuyamba kuvomereza izi, ndipo mu zisankho malingaliro a ovota ndiwofunikira. Zikatero, ovota a PSOE adzachita bwanji akayamba kukhulupirira pang'onopang'ono kuti chipani chawo ndi "chotayika"?

Odziwika "kukoka zotsatira" Povota, zimapangitsa ena mwa osankhidwa kusiya omwe amawawona ngati otayika ndikulowa nawo omwe amawawona ngati opambana. Choncho, njira ya UP iyenera kuwapatsa mavoti ochulukirapo pamene chisankho chikuyandikira.

Koma pali mavuto awiri:

• Choyamba: Kufikira 40% ya ovota a PSOE amati sadzavotera Unidos Podemos. Chifukwa chake, ngati ambiri a iwo atha kusiya PSOE pa tsiku lachisankho, si onse osiyidwawo omwe adzatha ku UP. Ovota ena a sosholisti, atakhumudwitsidwa, asankha kukana. Ndipo ena akhoza ngakhale kuvotera Ciudadanos kapena PP ngati kukana kwawo kwa Podemos kulidi kwakukulu.
• Chachiwiri: Kutsitsa mavoti a PSOE kumachepetsa chiwerengero cha nduna zake. Kodi izi zidzathetsedwa ndi kuwonjezeka kwa mipando yomwe UP idzakhala nayo?

Yoyamba yokha mwa mavuto awiriwa iyenera kukhala yokwanira kotero kuti, kuchokera ku UP, palibe amene angafune kuwuka komwe kunali kwakukulu kwambiri kwa gulu lawo: kutayika kwa PSOE kudzapindula, ngakhale pang'ono, Ciudadanos kapena PP, ndi Ambiri akumanzere omwe akufuna kuti tithe kutha.

Koma tiyeni tinyalanyaze mfundo imeneyi, ndikuyang'ana kwambiri zinthu zabwino zomwe zingabwere ku UP: kuti mavoti onse omwe PSOE amataya amatha kupita ku UP.

Malingana ndi kafukufuku avareji Lero, June 6, ngati zisankho zichitika, izi zikhala zotsatira:

PP: 29,6% ya mavoti.

UP: 24,4%

PSOE: 20,8%

C: 15,0%

Ngati tigwiritsa ntchito electrocalculator yabwino kwambiri a Lutxana ndi Johnniezq, timayika detayi m'chigawo, ndikupeza mapu otsatirawa omwe akuwonetsa kufanana koyamba kwachigawo chilichonse:

PSOE idzakhala chipani choyamba m'zigawo zina ndi UP m'madera ena. PP, ambiri.

Koma tsopano tiyeni tiyerekeze kuti UP itenga mavoti owonjezera 5% kuchokera ku PSOE pakati pa lero ndi tsiku la zisankho. Zikatero, UP ingangogwirizana ndi mavoti ndi PP, ndipo mapu a chipani choyamba ndi chigawo angawoneke motere:

Zigawo zina zimasinthidwa kukhala zina, ndipo zikuwoneka kuti palibe chochititsa chidwi.

Koma tsopano tiyeni tiwone momwe kugawa mipando kumasiyanasiyana:

Ngakhale kuti gulu la UP + PSOE likuwonjezera mavoti omwewo m'zochitika zonse ziwiri, potumiza 5% ya mavoti kuchokera ku PSOE kupita ku UP, kutsika kwa mipando yomwe asocialists amakumana nayo sikulipidwa ndi kukwera kwa Podemos. Pakali pano (tchizi kumanzere), bloc yakumanzere imaposa bloc yakumanja ndi mipando 166 mpaka 158. Koma ngati sorpasso ipita patsogolo, timakonda mkhalidwe (kumanja kwenikweni) momwe bloc yamapiko akumanja imaposa bloc ya mapiko amanzere ndi 164 mpaka 160.

Kodi izi zimatheka bwanji? Chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa PSOE, chipanichi chidzataya mpando wake wokha m'zigawo zambiri, ndipo zotsalirazo nthawi zina zidzagwera kumbali ya PP ndi Ciudadanos. Chifukwa chake, kupitilira pang'ono kuchokera ku UP kupita ku PSOE (monga zomwe tikukumana nazo masiku ano) zitha kukhala zabwino panjira ya boma la Iglesias. Koma kudabwitsa kwakukulu kumapindulitsa magulu achitatu, mwa kungogwiritsa ntchito lamulo lachisankho, ngakhale ngati satenga mavoti amodzi omwe PSOE imataya panthawiyi.

Zilibe kunena kuti, muzochitika zenizeni, PSOE sichidzangopereka mavoti ku UP, komanso Ciudadanos ndipo koposa zonse kuti adziletsa. Ndipo ngati ndi choncho, kumanzere kungathe kutsazikana ndi chiyembekezo chilichonse cha anthu ambiri.

Kuti mutsimikizire izi, palibe chabwino kuposa kuchita zoyeserera zambiri momwe mukufunira mu electrocalculator yabwino kwambiri patsamba lino, kapena pampando wina uliwonse: tidzakhala ndi lingaliro lomwelo. Ngati zomwe Iglesias akufunikira ndikukwaniritsa mgwirizano ndi PSOE kuti azilamulira, chinthu chomaliza chomwe akufuna kuti chitsike pansi pa 20% ya mavoti.

Sorpasso ili ndi mbewu yapoizoni yomwe siinayankhulidwe ku Podemos, mokondwera momwe alili ndi momwe zinthu zilili: ngati kupambana kwawo kuli kwakukulu, kudzawalepheretsa kupanga boma ndipo adzapereka kwa adani awo.

Zolemba zina pamndandanda:

PP imasokonekera ku Ciudadanos

Pomaliza