Zisankho ku Germany: migwirizano isanu ikadali yotheka

Tsiku la zisankho zaku Germany likuyandikira Seputembara 24. A Germany adzasankha pafupifupi Mamembala 630 a Bundestag (chipinda chake cha nduna), ndipo iwonso adzasankha mtsogoleri kwa zaka zinayi.

CDU/CSU ya Angela Merkel imasungabe chitsogozo chabwino pa SPD ya Schulz, koma ili kutali ndi anthu ambiri omwe palibe amene amawaganizira. Choncho, kuposa omwe adzapambane, nkhaniyi ndikudziwa kuti mgwirizano wa mphamvu udzakhala wotani womwe udzatuluke ku Bundestag yotsatira, kuti mudziwe chomwe chingakhale mgwirizano wa boma.

Pakadali pano, kafukufuku waposachedwa ali motere:

Chitsime: http://www.wahlrecht.de

Maphwando awiri akuluakulu ndi ocheperapo kuposa zaka zinayi zapitazo, koma amabwereza zotsatira.  Chofunikira ndicholepheretsa zisankho za 5% ya mavoti. Zipani zomwe sizikufika pachiwonetserochi zimachotsedwa munyumba yamalamulo, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti mavoti mamiliyoni angapo akhoza kutayika, kuonjezera chiwerengero cha oimira zipani zazikulu. Izi zidachitika zaka zinayi zapitazo ndi aufulu a FDP, komanso ndi ufulu wovuta wa AfD. Zipani zonse ziwiri zidapeza mavoti opitilira 5 miliyoni ndi pafupifupi XNUMX% ya mavoti, koma sizinali zokwanira kupeza mpando umodzi.

Pamwambowu, komabe, zikuwoneka kuti omasuka ndi ovomerezeka akutali adzatha kulowa munyumba yamalamulo, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti masewera a mgwirizano wotheka akhale ovuta kwambiri, mu dongosolo lofanana ndi la Germany kumene kugawidwa kwa mipando kuli kofanana kwambiri, ndi omwe amafika. kuti zamatsenga 5% mungathe kulakalaka pafupifupi nduna makumi anayi. Zipani zina ziwiri "zazing'ono", chipani chamanzere "Die Linke" ndi okonda zachilengedwe "Grüne", abwereza zotsatira zawo zaka zinayi zapitazo, malinga ndi zisankho.

Avereji yokonzedwa ndi Pollytix ikuwonetsa kusinthaku pakufufuza kwazaka zinayi zapitazi:

Zotsatira (zakanthawi) za chisankho cha Schulz ndi Social Democrats kumayambiriro kwa chaka chino zitha kuwoneka bwino, komanso nthawi zapamwamba za kumanja kwambiri (mzere wabuluu) ndi masamba (mzere wobiriwira) mu 2016.

Koma tsopano zonse zachitika, ndipo pali chizolowezi kachiwiri ku dongosolo la zipani ziwiri zopanda ungwiro (2+4). Chithunzi cha mphindiyo chikuwonetsa malo achitatu kumanzere (mzere wofiirira), ndi omasuka oyikidwa bwino (mzere wachikasu). Ponena za masewera a mgwirizano, omwe akuyembekezeka kwambiri masiku ano angakhale awa:

Pollytix.eu data

Kutulutsidwanso kwa "mgwirizano waukulu" pakati pa ma demokalase a chikhalidwe cha anthu ndi ma demokalase achikhristu omwe amalamulira Germany, amasangalala ndi anthu ambiri, ndi CDU ya Merkel monga chipani chachikulu.

Koma, adzakhalapo pambuyo pa chisankho njira zina?

Pomwe chipani cha AfD sichinatsimikizidwe, zotsatirazi zitha kufufuzidwa:

• Chiwerengero cha maphwando atatu "amanzere". Pakali pano ndizochepa kwambiri, chifukwa zingasowe mavoti pafupifupi 10% kuti apeze mavoti ambiri. M'malo mwake, kukwezedwa kwatsopano kodabwitsa kwa Schulz, monga komwe kunachitika nthawi yachisanu, kungabwezeretse mwayiwu.
• Omasuka, omwe adzuka posachedwapa, atsala pang'ono kuyambiranso ntchito yawo yakale ngati hinji. Chiwerengero cha mavoti awo ndi a Merkel chatsala pang'ono kupeza ambiri. Akanangofunika mipando yochulukirapo kuposa yomwe mavoti amamupatsa.
• Ngati CDU/liberals coalition sanafikire mipando yofunikira, a Greens, omwe asintha m'zaka zaposachedwa kupita kumalo okhudzidwa kwambiri ndi ovomerezeka, angapereke mavoti ofunikira kuti agwirizane ndi njira zitatu.
• Pakhalanso zongopeka, mwachindunji, ndi zotheka mgwirizano pakati pa Merkel ndi zobiriwira ngati zipani zonse pamodzi zidapeza mavoti angapo kuposa momwe mavoti amanenera.

Kwatsala mwezi umodzi ndi theka kuti zisankho zichitike ndipo ndalamazo zitha kusiyanasiyana. Nthawi zambiri kusiyana pakati pa zotheka ndi ena kudzadalira gawo limodzi mwa magawo khumi a mavoti ndi mipando yochepa mu Bundestag. Pali zambiri zoti tisankhe.