France 28/4: Ngakhale zili tsiku loyipa, Macron amasunga mayendedwe ake abwino

Masiku angapo apitawo, chisankho choyamba cha chisankho cha ku France chitangochitika, zisankho zoyamba zachisankho chachiwiri, zomwe zidzachitike pa May 7, zidalengezedwa. Onse adagwirizana kuti Macron apeza pakati pa 60 ndi 65% ya mavoti, poyerekeza ndi 35-40% ya Le Pen.

Ndizidziwitso izi, ndikuganiziranso kuti patsala milungu iwiri kuti zisankho zichitike, pa 24 Tinapanga chitsanzo molingana ndi zomwe Macron anali ndi mwayi wa 82,1%. kukakamiza, poyerekeza ndi 17,9% ya Le Pen. Tidachenjeza ngakhale pamenepo kuti tsiku lililonse lomwe limadutsa popanda chochitika chilichonse chimagwira ntchito mokomera Macron, ndikuwonjezera mwayi wake wopambana.

Tafika Lachisanu, Epulo 28. Kale kwatsala masiku 9 okha za zisankho, ndi palibe chachikulu chomwe chasintha. Dzulo Le Pen adapeza chigonjetso chaching'ono, akusangalatsidwa pagawo lomwelo pomwe Macron adanyozedwa. Zisankho zikuwonetsa izi ndikubweza komwe kumamupangitsa kuti achoke pa 38.2% ya mavoti mpaka 40.2%. Uku ndikuwongolera kwakukulu kwa mavoti, koma mwayi wake wopambana komaliza, malinga ndi chitsanzo chathu, sunayambe kukula kuyambira dzulo mpaka lero ndi magawo asanu ndi limodzi mwa khumi, ndipo, kwenikweni, ndi otsika kuposa omwe anali nawo tsiku litatha kuzungulira koyamba. . . Ndipo nthawi yawatsutsa. Le Pen angafunike nkhonya zowoneka bwino kuposa dzulo kuti asinthe zomwe zikuchitika, zosintha zomwe zikanapangitsa kusintha kozama m'malingaliro a ovota. Kupanda kutero, mudzawona mwayi wanu wocheperako kutha msanga pamene masiku akupita.

Ngakhale tsiku labwino lomwe Le Pen anali nalo dzulo, avareji yathu imamuyika kuti akadali kutali kwambiri ndi opikisana naye pamaperesenti a mavoti (40.2% motsutsana ndi 59.8%) komanso kuthekera kwenikweni kopambana (16.0%).

Zoonadi, mlozera wathu si wokhawo womwe ukukonzedwa pankhaniyi. Aliyense amavomereza kuti Macron ali ndi mwayi wopambana kuposa Le Pen, koma sagwirizana pa gawo lomwe kupita kwa nthawi ndi zotheka zakuda zakuda zimagwira pankhaniyi.

Ichi ndi chimodzi mwazamphamvu kwambiri mokomera Macron:

https://twitter.com/TheCrosstab/status/857591311251247105

Ndipo iyi ndi imodzi mwazomwe zimapatsa Le Pen mwayi wambiri:

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/857421835687907329

Pakati pa 1-2% ya mwayi umene ena amapereka Le Pen (ndipo, ndithudi, mwayi woti angasangalale ngati zisankho zidzachitika lero), ndi 25% yomwe ena amamupatsa (mwina kukokomeza zotsatira za nthawi ndi nthawi). kuthekera kwa "black swans") ndi, pafupifupi, zotheka zenizeni zomwe Le Pen wasiya.

Ndipo, monga chidule cha momwe nkhaniyi ilili, nayi tweet yochokera ku Kiko Llaneras yolondola nthawi zonse:

6/ Kuti mupambane Le Pen pamafunika china chake kuti chichitike. Chochititsa manyazi, chochititsa manyazi. Mwina kubetcha kumadalira izi: amapatsa mwayi wa 12%.

- Kiko Llaneras (@kikollan) April 27, 2017