Vox ndi PACMA, zoletsedwa ndi oponya zisankho kapena popanda zosankha zenizeni?

Pali ambiri mwa otsatira athu pa malo ochezera a pa Intaneti omwe nthawi zambiri amatifunsa za kuwonongeka kwa "Maphwando Ena" tikamafalitsa kafukufuku. Funso silingamveke bwino munthawi zovuta zadongosolo la zipani ziwiri (ngakhale zakhala "zikomo" kuyambira 2013), kuyambira XNUMX. chotsatira cha kulowa kwa UPyD ku Congress mu 2008 (pakati pa bipartisan wave) kapena "bomba" la kutuluka kwa Podemos ndi aphungu a 5 aku Europe mu zisankho zaku Europe za 2014. Amapangitsa ambiri aife kudabwa ngati maphwando atsopano ali ndi mwayi wodabwitsa m'miyezi ikubwerayi.

Potengera izi, owonjezera aphungu monga Vox o Pacma Akhoza kukapeza mpando pazisankho zikubwerazi Chisankho cha ku Europe/matasipala/chisankho chodziyimira pawokha komanso masankho akulu akulu otsatira. Koma zimakhala zovuta kudziwa kuti chithandizo chanu chenicheni ndi chani pamene ambiri ochita kafukufuku sakufunsa mwachindunji za cholinga chanu chovota, Kodi uku ndi kuyankha kwa kampeni yoletsa chete za mapangidwewa kuti apindule ndi zipani zachikhalidwe Kapena alibe njira iliyonse? kupeza malo ku Nyumba ya Malamulo?

M'nkhani yonseyi tiwonanso mbiri ya "maphwando atsopano" omwe akhala otsiriza kuti akwaniritse kuyimilira, tiwona chithunzi chomwe zisankho zinaperekedwa m'miyezi isanachitike zisankho ndi zotsatira zomwe adazipeza. Pansipa tiwona ngati zotsatilazi zitha kusamutsidwa ku zomwe zikuchitika komanso ngati, chifukwa chake, mapangidwe atsopanowa ali ndi mwayi wolowa mu ndale za ku Ulaya ndi ku Spain.

Nkhani ya UpyD

Kulowa ku Congress

Mu 2008, zisankho zazikulu zidachitika ku Spain, zisankho komwe kuchuluka kwa PP ndi PSOE kudafika 84% pamtengo wa kuchepa kwa chithandizo cha IU ndi zipani zachikhalidwe zadziko. Koma zili choncho, chipani chatsopano chidapeza mpando wa Rosa Díez mu Congress of Deputies: UPyD. Adachita izi ndi mavoti 1,19% ndi mavoti 300.000.

Kafukufuku wam'mbuyomu

ndi zisankho zaposachedwa kuyerekezera kofalitsidwa kuyerekeza zotsatira zotsatirazi za UPyD:

CIS: 0,6%
Oponya voti: 1% (ngakhale ambiri sanapereke deta, ngakhale kuti pamapeto omaliza a kampeni El Periódico, La Vanguardia ndi El País adamupatsa zosankha zolowera ndi mipando ya 0-1).

Rosa Díez akupereka zodabwitsa

Atapanga chipani miyezi 6 chisankho chisanachitike atapatukana ndi PSE, mosakayikira UPyD ndi Rosa Díez anapita kutsogolo kwa nkhani za ndale chifukwa chokwaniritsa chinthu chovuta kwambiri: kukatula mpando kuchokera ku zikondwerero zachikhalidwe. Kwa iye, Rosa anatha kuloŵa pogonjetsa chotchinga cha 3% mu Community of Madrid, ndikuyika 131.000 mavoti m'dera lodziyimira palokha.

Zotsatira ku Madrid: 3,76% - 1 mpando.
Chotsatira cha dziko: 1,19%.

Kusintha kwa CIS: -49%
Kupatuka kwa mavoti: -16%

Nkhani ya Podemos

"Zodabwitsa" za Azungu

Kulowa kwa Podemos ku Nyumba Yamalamulo ku Europe ku 2014 mosakayikira kwawonetsa mbiri yathu yaposachedwa ya ndale. Ndipo kutali ndi kupeza mpando, Chipani cha Pablo Iglesias chili ndi mipando 5, pafupifupi 8% ya mavoti, kungodumphira patsamba loyamba lazofalitsa zonse zapadziko lonse lapansi zosayembekezereka za zotsatira zabwino zomwe akatswiri ambiri amawona kuti kufulumira kwa mapeto a chitsanzo cha bipartisan Chisipanishi.

Kafukufuku wam'mbuyomu

M'chaka cha 2014 tinali kuyankhapo kale pa zomwe tawona pazisankho zisanachitike zisankho ku electomanía, komanso ambiri a inu. mwabwera kudzaneneratu -popanda kupambana pang'ono- zomwe mumaganiza kuti zidzachitika powerengera.

Choonadi ndi chimenecho Ngakhale ku La Sexta sanali kubetcha pa zotsatira zabwino za Podemosndi kafukufuku wake waposachedwa kwa Azungu kusonyeza kuti mapangidwe ofiirira angapeze 1 MEP ndi 1,5% ya mavoti, ngakhale avareji ya zisankho zaposachedwa Adayika a Iglesias pafupifupi 2% -3% ndi ofufuza ena monga GAD3 kapena SigmaDos omwe adawakweza mpaka 3,5%:

CIS: 1,8%
Oponya voti: 2,5%

Kuphulika kwa mabomba a 5 MEPs

Usiku wa May 25, 2014 tonse tinadabwa pofufuza izo Mavoti adapeputsa chikoka cha zisankho ndi chithunzi cha Iglesias, omwe sanangopeza mpando ku Nyumba Yamalamulo ya ku Europe, komanso adakwanitsa kugwedeza dongosolo la zipani ziwiri, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti kukhazikitsidwa kwatsopano kumatha kuphimba chipani chilichonse, kutsatira njira za UPyD.

Zotsatira: 7,97% - 5 mipando.
Kusintha kwa CIS: -77,4%
Pollster kupatuka: -68,6%

Vox y PACMA

Pakalipano n'zovuta kusanthula thandizo la anthu a ku Spain kwa mapangidwe awiriwa pamene pafupifupi palibe amene amafunsa za zipanizi. Ngakhale kafukufuku wathunthu wa CIS samafunsa za iwo.

M'miyezi yaposachedwapa zakhala zikuchitika Sociometrics kwa Spanish ndiye yekhayo amene adadzipereka kusonyeza chithandizo chomwe angakolole Vox mu chisankho chachikulu, kumuyika iye pafupifupi 1,5%.

Kenako, onse a Sociometrica ndi SigmaDos adaphwanyathandizo kuchokera kwa okhala ku Madrid kupita ku Vox ndi PACMA pamwambo wa Meyi 2 m'mavoti awo momwe timagawira mu chisankho chathu, kupeza Mphamvu 3,5% zothandizira media, ndi PACMA 1,6%.

Vox national estimate: 1,5%
PACMA National Estimate: N / A

Estimate Com. Madrid Vox: 3,5%
Estimate Com. Madrid PACMA: 1,6%

Vox: ndi zosankha zenizeni

Tikayerekeza kuyerekeza kwa thandizo la Vox pamayiko ndi zigawo, Vox akanakhala ndi nthawi yosavuta kulowa mu Congress of Deputies wokhala ndi mpando osachepera umodzi waku Madrid kubwereza kudzuka kwa UpyD mu 2008.

Komanso, kuyandikira kwa anthu a ku Ulaya ndi dongosolo lawo loyimilira molingana kumatanthauza kuti sizingatheke kuti apange Abascal. "Zotsatira za Mipingo" ngati zitha kukopa mavoti osakhutitsidwa kuchokera kumanja omwe amawapangitsa patsogolo pa ndale za dziko, chinthu chomwe mosakayikira chingapereke chidziwitso chabwinoko mu zisankho zazikulu za 2020, ndikuganiziranso Sociometrics imaneneratu kuthandizira kwa 5% m'madera odziyimira pawokha a Madrid, zomwe zimachitikira pamodzi ndi European, kotero iwo akhoza ngakhale kupeza mipando mu Madrid Assembly kuti Atha ngakhale kukhazikitsa boma lodziyimira pawokha la Madrid, zomwe zikanawapangitsa kutchuka kwambiri pamlingo wadziko lonse.

PACMA: ili pachiwopsezo ku Azungu

Mosiyana ndi zomwe zimachitika ndi mapangidwe a Abascal, Phwando lachinyama likuwoneka kuti silingathe kulowa Congress wa nduna, ndi lNjira yokhayo yomwe muyenera kukwaniritsa ndi kuti thandizo lomwe zisankho zikuwonetsa ku Madrid zisinthidwe kudziko lonse mu zisankho za ku Ulaya, mwinamwake yolumikizidwa ndi capitalization ya "voti yotsutsa" ya kumanzere osakhutira ndi Unidos Podemos.

Ngati atapambana, kulowa kwake mu Congress mu 2020 kudzakhala pafupi kwambiri, ngakhale kuti zingakhale zovuta kwa omenyera nyama kuti abweretse mawu oteteza ufulu wa zinyama ku Carrera de San Jerónimo.

Zambiri sizokwanira

Monga mukuwonera, zikuwoneka kuti Kulowa kwa Vox ndi PACMA mu Nyumba Yamalamulo ya ku Europe ndi kusamutsidwa kwake ku Congress of Deputies kumakhazikika pa ulusi., koma ndizowona kuti zingakhale zophweka kuyerekezera zotsatira zake ngati oponya zisankho akuphatikizapo kuwonongeka kwa chithandizo cha zipanizi pakati pa deta yawo.

Si funso la zovuta, ndi funso la chifuniro, ndipo ngati timakonda kapena ayi malingaliro omwe amateteza, podziwa chithunzi cha ovota awo sichiyenera kukhala chosankha, pamapeto pake. kukhala ndi mfundo zingapo zowonjezera sikupweteka aliyense, deta sikhala yochuluka. Ndipo makamaka pamene mu ndale palibe cholembedwa, ndipo ndani akudziwa ngati aliyense wa maphwando awa adzayang'ana pa zivundikiro za May 2019 ... kapena ayi.