Abantu baseMelika abavumelani noTrump, kodwa hayi kangako

El inkxaso yoluntu ngumongameli waseMelika ngaphantsi kokulahlwa kwakho, kodwa namhlanje akusafani naleyo babenayo abanye abongameli ngeli xesha ngokwemiqathango yabo.

Ngokutsho fivethirtyeight.comUthe nje ukuba athathe isikhundla, ukuvunywa kwabantu baseMelika kumongameli kwehle kwaya kutsho kumanqanaba asezantsi kunokwaliwa kwabo, kwaye ukusukela ngoko bekusoloko kukho abantu abaninzi abangamfuniyo kunabo bamxhasayo. Kunyaka ophelileyo uluvo olubi malunga Trump yafikelela, phantse, i 60% yabemi. Noko ke, ukusukela ngoko, inkcaso kamongameli iye yehla ngokuthe ngcembe.

Nangona uDonald Trump ehlala engumongameli ongathandwayo kwilizwe lakhe, nangona kunjalo unayo Iqela elibalulekileyo labathembekileyo oko, ngaphezu koko, inyuke kakhulu ukususela ekupheleni kuka-2017.

Ukuthelekisa nezintandathu abongameli bangaphambili ibonisa ukuba ezintathu ubuncinane (uBarack Obama, uBill Clinton kunye noRonald Reagan), banandipha ngeli xesha kubumongameli bakhe, a Inkxaso efana neTrump. Okumangalisayo kukuba Abo mongameli bathathu ekugqibeleni bakwazile ukuphinda bonyulwe kwaye ugqibezele elona xesha liphezulu elivunyelwe nguMgaqo-siseko waseMelika: iminyaka esibhozo engaphazanyiswa.

Isikhundla sikaTrump, ngoku angena kwisiqingatha sesibini sokugqibela sexesha lakhe, sibi, kodwa ukude nokuphelelwa lithemba. Yintoni ekulindelweyo kwikamva elingekude?

Umqobo wakhe oyintloko, ngokuqinisekileyo, unyulo kwakhona, apho uya kulwa ekwindla ka-2020. Akubonakali ukuba kukho, kwiqela lakhe laseRiphabhlikhi, nabani na oya kuma kumongameli. 

Kwinkampu yeDemokhrasi yonke into yintelekelelo. Akukho nokuba ngabagqatswa abacacileyo okanye ukhetho lwabavoti lubonakala luchazwa kancinci. Uphando olwenziwe e-Iowa luthi i-32% yabavoti abanokuba ngabavoti baxhasa uJoe Biden njengokhetho lwabo lokuqala, i-19% ixhasa uSanders, i-11% ixhasa u-O'Rourke, i-8% ixhasa uSenator u-Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts), kunye ne-5% kwiSenator yaseCalifornia uKamala. Harris. Abanye abaviwa abayi-20 bafumene inkxaso engaphantsi kwe-5%.

Si ngexilongo uya kufumana amaxabiso akhe enkxaso ukuba anyuke kancinci kulo nyaka uzayo, kwaye ukugatywa kwakhe kwehle ngaphantsi kwe-50%, ziya kufumaneka, Enkosi koomatshini kunye nosasazo olunikezelwa ngumongameli, ukuhlaziya igunya lakhe, ukuba phambi kwakhe akanaye umgqatswa weDemokhrasi onamandla okwenene okuqhubela phambili.

Ngokubanzi, abongameli abaphumelele unyulo kwakhona badla ngokubona ukuba njani iphucula uluvo lwentlalo malunga nabo kwikota yabo yesibini, nangona inikwe idiosyncrasy yakhe ethile, ngokubhekiselele kuTrump nantoni na enokwenzeka. Umkhethe, phakathi kwaba bamva, yayinguGeorge W. Bush, owathi iziphumo zemfazwe yase-Iraq zakhokelela kuye kwiminyaka yakutshanje. mzantsi.