Ukubeka iliso esikwenzayo “kwiphulo langaphambili” lonyulo lukamongameli lwaseMntla Melika ngoNovemba luzisa iindaba ezincinci kule veki. Abaninzi eUnited States baphantse bacinge ngonyulo olulahlekileyo lukaDonald Trump, ukuthandwa kwakhe kuqhubeka kunye nebhalansi engalunganga malunga namanqaku angama-15.
Kodwa Akukhuthazwa ukuba ulibale ixesha: Kukho iinyanga ezizayo kwaye zininzi izinto ezisenokwenzeka ezitshintsha imeko. Okwangoku, ukuba unyulo lubanjwe namhlanje, iimodeli zinika I-Biden phakathi kwe-83% kunye ne-94% kunokwenzeka ukuba iphumelele kuTrump. Kubalo lwethu, oluzisa ukuhlehla kwintsingiselo yexesha kude kube lunyulo, okunokwenzeka kusondele: i-62% yeBiden kunye ne-38% yeTrump.
Amazwe akhuselekileyo
Ukuhlalutya idatha ngokwelizwe, sicinga ngokuqinisekileyo (ngaphezulu kwe-95% enokwenzeka) iivoti ezingama-222 zeBiden (blue) kunye ne-141 ye-Trump (ebomvu). Ama-270 ayafuneka ukuze aphumelele ke ayisenakuthiwa iBiden iphumelele kuzo.
Iiphekhi ezintandathu
Los ithi ezintandathu ukuba silandela ingakumbi kuba EM-electomania sicinga ukuba baya kuba ngundoqo kwimeko yokugqibela, Bonke bawela kwicala leDemokhrasi ngoku. Yiyo amanqaku okunika iingcebiso okanye "ilizwe eliqhekezayo." Ngokwedatha yethu yangoku, emva kokunika ezi meko kunye nezinye ezithandabuzayo, UBiden ebezakuba ngumongameli ngeevoti ezingama-303 ukuya kwi-171.
Swing amazwe
Ngokunokwenzeka malunga ne-50% kubo bobabini abagqatswa, siya kuba namazwe amathathu kuphela ashiyekileyo ngeli xesha (amazwe ajikelezayo). Ngaba Texas, Iowa kunye Ohio. Inyani nje yokuba iBiden inokulindelwa ukuba iphumelele kubo ibonisa ukuba ibhalansi ngoku ityekele kakhulu ekuthandeni kwakhe. Idabi ngeli xesha ke livela kwimimandla emithathu engagqibekanga kwaye, nokuba uTrump ebenokuwagcina ekugqibeleni, bekungayi kumnceda ukuba aphumelele ubongameli.
Kodwa kusekho iinyanga ezintathu ezinesiqingatha phambi konyulo. I-Trump igcina iinketho ze-38%. ngokwemodeli yethu. Akukho mntu uphumeleleyo (okanye uphulukene) nantoni na okwangoku.
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![](data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" preserveAspectRatio="xMidYMid meet" viewBox="0 0 16 16"%3E%3Cpath fill="none" stroke="%23a7a7a7" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="1.5" d="m11.25 4.75l-6.5 6.5m0-6.5l6.5 6.5"/%3E%3C/svg%3E%0A)
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