I-PP ibambeka kwiCiudadanos

Sithe izolo Iipodemos zidinga iPSOE eyomeleleyo ukuba ufuna ukulangazelela urhulumente emva konyulo lwama-26-J. I-PSOE ewela ngaphantsi kwe-18-20% yeevoti ayiyi kuba yanele ukufezekisa uninzi ngakwesobunxele, kungakhathaliseki ukuba i-Unidos Podemos ikhule kangakanani. Ngoko i-UP ayinayo enye indlela, ukuba ifuna ukulawula ngoku, kunokuthembela kwi-PSOE ephantse ibe kwinqanaba layo.

Namhlanje lixesha lokujonga ngenye indlela kwaye ubuze umbuzo ofanayo: ngaba i-Ciudadanos enamandla okanye ebuthathaka ihambelana nePP?

Isicwangciso sePP salolu khetho sibonakala sibandakanya ukuzama ukubuyisela amavoti kwindleko yeCiudadanos, esongela ukwenza oko ngoloyiko lwePodemos. I-Ciudadanos iyinto ekuphela komthombo weevoti abaxhasi bakaRajoy abanalo, ngaphandle, mhlawumbi, ukungafuni. Kodwa ngaba ukuya kwezi voti liqhinga elifanelekileyo? Ngaba kunenzuzo ukuba iPP ithathe iivoti kwiCiudadanos? Ngaba awungekhe ube nomdla, njengePodemos, ekubeni nomlingane wakho onokuthi agcine inqanaba eliphezulu leevoti, ukuze kuphunyezwe uninzi kunye?

Ukufumanisa, ekuqaleni ndasebenzisa indlela efanayo kwinqaku lezolo: ndicinga ukuba umkhankaso we-polarized uya kuvumela i-PP ukuba ibuyisele i-5% yeevoti ezongezelelweyo ngeendleko zeCiudadanos. Kule nto ndiqale kwidatha ye umndilili wophando nge-6 kaJuni. Okulandelayo ndasebenzisa isixhobo sokubala sonyulo lwezihlalo . Isiphumo esifunyenweyo, nangona kunjalo, asivumeli ukuba kwenziwe izigqibo. Izolo kwacaca ukuba i-Unidos Podemos idinga i-PSOE kwaye kuya kuba yinto engafanelekanga ukuzama ukucwina kakhulu ngoku. Kodwa embindini-ekunene, imathematika ayilula kangako.

Ke ndiye ndazama indlela eyahlukileyo, enzulu. Ndihlolisise inani elipheleleyo lamasekela ukuba i-hypothetical PP + C's coalition iya kufumana, ngokucinga, njengayizolo, ukuba inqaku ngalinye iPP iphumelele (okanye ilahlekelwe) iya kuba yinto yokuba i-Ciudadanos ilahlekelwe (okanye iphumelele). Oku kukwenza lula, kodwa kuluncedo kuhlalutyo. Kodwa ngeli xesha, endaweni yokuba siyenzele ingqikelelo enye, siya kuyenza kuluhlu olupheleleyo lwamathuba. Isiphumo siboniswa kolu luhlu lulandelayo kunye negrafu:

Njengoko kunokubonwa, i-PP, ngeli xesha, ngokulindeleke kwevoti engaphantsi kancinane kwe-30%, ikwimeko embi kakhulu. Ukongeza amasekela ayo kulawo aseCiudadanos, aya kuba ngaphantsi kwe-160 ngokucacileyo.

Ngoku, ukuba i-PP ithatha ithuba lokuphumla kwephulo lokukhula ngeendleko zeCiudadanos, iya kwenza utyalo-mali oluhle: inzuzo kwizihlalo eziya kuthetha ukuba iya kuba nkulu kunokulahlekelwa okubangelwa kwiqela likaRivera. Oku kwenzeka, ngokungafani nobudlelwane obukhoyo phakathi kwePodemos kunye ne-PSOE, kuba i-Ciudadanos, ukuqala, incinci kakhulu kune-PSOE. Ngoko ke, unokuncinci ukulahlekelwa. Iivoti ezininzi zeCiudadanos sele zilahlekile ngaphambili, kumaphondo apho isekela lokuqala lingenakufikelela khona. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukulahlekelwa kwevoti ye-Ciudadanos kunokuhlala kukhokelela, yonke indawo, ekunyuseni okucingelwayo kwizihlalo zePP.

Nangona kunjalo, ngaphandle, kukho amaphondo apho i-PP inomdla ngokuchaseneyo. Kwenzeka, umzekelo, eSalamanca, apho isihlalo sokugqibela siphikisana phakathi kweCiudadanos kunye ne-Unidos Podemos. Kwenzeka into efanayo kwamanye amaphondo amancinci naphakathi. Kuloo meko, kuya kuba yinto engcono kakhulu yePP ukunika iivoti kuCiudadanos ukucima izihlalo eziphikisanayo.

Yile nto, i-avareji yeSpain iyonke, icala lasekhohlo legrafu libonisa. Imeko yobudemon apho iPP izifumana khona ngoku ithathwe kwinto yokuba ilungile kwindawo ephakathi, kwincopho ye-V: ukuba ayifuni ukuphumelela phakathi kwangoku kunye noJuni 26, iipesenti ezimbini okanye ezintathu zeepesenti. ngexabiso leSixekosiphe, kungangcono nokuba aphulukane nabo kwiqela elinye. Yonke into ngaphandle kokuqhubeka kwindawo esembindini, malunga ne-28-30% yeevoti, kulapho kanye apho umfelandawonye we-leftist unokuwugqitha ngokucacileyo. Ngamafutshane, ukhetho olungcono namhlanje lwePP kukuphumelela amavoti ngeendleko zeCiudadanos. Kodwa ukhetho lwakhe lwesibini olungcono, ukuba lo luyasilela, aluyi kuba kukuhlala njengoko anjalo, kodwa ukuyeka iipesenti ezimbalwa kwiqela likaRivera.

Iindida zikaMtyholi.

I-Ciudadanos, ukusuka kulo mbono, ayiyiyo i-PP's crutch, kodwa kunokuba i-fly engafanelekanga kunye nokuziphatha okungalindelekanga. Impukane ekufuneka i-PP ikhethe phakathi kokutshabalalisa (ukuba iyakwazi) okanye ukutyebisa, kodwa ayinakukwazi ukuyihoya.

Amanye amanqaku kolu ngcelele:

I-sorpasso inokuthintela uPablo Iglesias ukuba afikelele kurhulumente

Isiphelo